NBA TUE 032409 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[axp59]

Hey whats up guys my name is Evan...don't know if im welcome to post here but I came across your thread and found it very interesting/informative. And i can really appreciate some of the things being said and some of the attitudes/approaches towards handicapping.


Found this trend interesting....

San Antonio has won 20 straight home meetings against the Warriors.

Will that change tonight or does the trend continue? .. I dunno but they gotta win sometime.. and if tim duncan is out and spurs playing bad lately...why not tonite? its just will donnie nelson be hammered drunk and start 5 rookies tonight...Who knows? All I do know is if G state covers or wins...which i think they can....than I can see the game going over... but if los spurs come to play and looks at this is a must win...than under? what do you think?

In conclusion, thinking about g state + 9 with maybe a little something on them money line.

again let me know if i am intruding on your thread . Thanks all.

p.s

In the teams' only other meeting this season, Duncan had 20 points, 13 rebounds and five assists as the Spurs beat the Warriors 123-88 on Dec. 6, their 21st straight home win in the series.

San Antonio has held Golden State to 85.0 points per game and 38.6 percent shooting during that run. The Warriors haven't won at San Antonio since a 108-94 victory Feb. 14, 1997 -- the season prior to Duncan's first with the Spurs.

pretty sick..

Everyone is welcome!
Leave the ego at the door.
Don't bash others
Back up you opinion with something.

simple enough.

Word is Timmy will start. Don Nelson is unpredictable. There seems to be a lot of guys leaning on the under in this game. I'm just tagging along because my friend who's a well respected capper by many here has rarely posted a thread about any game and he came out firing today with this one. That speaks volume. Are you coming from the other side? Just curious.

Welcome aboard.

 

[Mindframe913]

Yeah I usually research covers everyday. Just hard to always know who is credible and who is not. And alot of immature bs goes on over there. I just really like the way you guys go about it. Not chasing.. One play a day..stuff like that....

anyway

I have a nice system for mlb when it gets started up so I will be a lot more useful when it comes to the diamond ( played college ball and been around the game my whole life)

tonite.


San Antonio has held Golden State to 85.0 points per game and 38.6 percent shooting during that 20-0 home run. The Warriors haven't won at San Antonio since a 108-94 victory Feb. 14, 1997 lol -- the season prior to Duncan's first with the Spurs.

So even way back when g state won the total was u 207....this is tuff I wish I knew how serious spurs were about this game...im guessing they have to buckle down man...i mean havent they lost 3 out of 4 .playoffs are coming fast....if this is a must win than I love the under.

61 % being on the under isn't to scary.. may be worth a play.

 

[mpnyc76]

Chump's change...axtion play

[646] TOTAL u207?-110
(GOLDEN STATE vrs SAN ANTONIO)

straight tail

GLTA

Chump has been a bit cold of late for his standards - where did your numbers come out on this with Timmy playing? I had it at 202.5

 

[Mindframe913]

dont know if anyone else posted this but if you go by spurs last 5...than I understand why chump loves the play so much.

Mar 22 HOU Loss 87-85
Mar 20 BOS Loss 80-77
Mar 17 MIN Win 93-86
Mar 16 @OKC Loss 78-76
Mar 14 @HOU Win 88-85

 

[axp59]

That's good stuff. Always looking for another MLB guy which is my game also. Still got some cash left to pry out of my bookie's dirty little hands for the NBA but I'm dying for opening day. Who's your homer? I want to make sure I know where the experts are.

 

[axp59]

Chump has been a bit cold of late for his standards - where did your numbers come out on this with Timmy playing? I had it at 202.5

With Timmy...I'm @ 200

 

[toastonastick]

Chump's change...axtion play

[646] TOTAL u207?-110
(GOLDEN STATE vrs SAN ANTONIO)

straight tail

GLTA

BOL, great threads you have! Just curious why post (no pics inside) in the thread title? I'm asssuming to keep people from posting picks without any rhyme or reason:shrug:

Thanks for sharing!

 

[ebxchange]

hi Ax, I really like Over on the Chicago game tonight, you could have won if you did not buy back the under last night on their game.

Who is Chump and is he posting in this forum often ?

thanks

 

[Chooch77]

Utah/Hou U

Utah is 20-11 UNDER as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points and they are 10-1 UNDER after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. The Jazz are 7-0 UNDER their last 7 home games and they are 23-9 UNDER their last 32 home games vs. the Rockets.

 

[Mindframe913]

That's good stuff. Always looking for another MLB guy which is my game also. Still got some cash left to pry out of my bookie's dirty little hands for the NBA but I'm dying for opening day. Who's your homer? I want to make sure I know where the experts are.

Im a Yankee fan..born and raised in New York...this does not mean I wont bet against them though lol.. I know them too well to lay their juice half the time.

I love home teams and unders to start the year!!!!! ....Pitchers feeling great...hitters still a little cold...than i throw all that out the window come inter league.. where I play all american teams every single game...than after all star break the unders stop cashing and I just cap a few games a day.

 

[axp59]

Just curious why post (no pics inside) in the thread title?

From our old home, we would get bombarded with..
"what's the play?"
"what do you think of this?"

It becomes disruptive to our process.

We want people to give us thoughts, insights, opinions...etc. The "no picks inside" repels some of those just looking for a handout and if it doesn't pan out come back in here and bash.
If you're in here and you're part of the thought process to get to a play and it losses. You don't feel so bad because you knew it was the right call. You did the research and you went back and forth with others. It just didn't win.

Please join us. We'd love another set of eyes/ears.

 

[Joe_Vienna]

adding

LAL @ OKL U204.5

team=Thunder and season=2008 and rest=1 and site=home and p:site=away

team=Lakers and season=2008 and rest=2 and site=away and p:site=away

:toast:

 

[Mindframe913]

I'm starting a new system. I call it fade the number 1s. Everyday sportsbook.com lists there top ten bets of the day... More times than not, the number 1 most popular pick of day the loses.

There number 1 pick today... Los Angeles Lakers -8

 

[axp59]

hi Ax, I really like Over on the Chicago game tonight, you could have won if you did not buy back the under last night on their game.

Who is Chump and is he posting in this forum often ?

thanks

You got to rub that in don't ya. :sadwave:

yeah, liking the over myself...got in at 191 but JoeV got it @189.5

Chump is the real deal. He's come by to say hello but he lives on the other side. He's just a straight shooter old school capper. big time ball buster too.

 

[Mindframe913]

adding

LAL @ OKL U204.5

team=Thunder and season=2008 and rest=1 and site=home and p:site=away

team=Lakers and season=2008 and rest=2 and site=away and p:site=away

:toast:

wow MY book has it at 206!! combine that with 86 % on the over and i might have a serious play on my hands.

 

[axp59]

Utah/Hou U

Utah is 20-11 UNDER as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points and they are 10-1 UNDER after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. The Jazz are 7-0 UNDER their last 7 home games and they are 23-9 UNDER their last 32 home games vs. the Rockets.

Got a side on this one chooch?

 

[Joe_Vienna]

I'm starting a new system. I call it fade the number 1s. Everyday sportsbook.com lists there top ten bets of the day... More times than not, the number 1 most popular pick of day the loses.

There number 1 pick today... Los Angeles Lakers -8

Nice system! Please keep posting your results with that system :toast:

 

[Joe_Vienna]

ax & mindframe

I bought some points so actually my book had the same lines I just changed it a little bit! Hope it won't cost me!

 

[axp59]

Im a Yankee fan..born and raised in New York...this does not mean I wont bet against them though lol.. I know them too well to lay their juice half the time.

I love home teams and unders to start the year!!!!! ....Pitchers feeling great...hitters still a little cold...than i throw all that out the window come inter league.. where I play all american teams every single game...than after all star break the unders stop cashing and I just cap a few games a day.

NICE...I'm looking forward to some of this action. Got to agree with you on that Yankee juice. The Angels on the other hand is quite a bargain these past few years.

 

[jlippens]

Perhaps I've missed it, but is there a reason we don't like LAK/OKC O 205? The number seems very very reasonable.