NBA MON 033009 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[axp59]

where is the best place to get a somewhat accurate injury report??

I use espn mostly

 

[axp59]

From across the street:

favorites after overtime win (games that lasted more than 2.5 hours) are 16-70 ATS if they have less than 2 days of rest since their last game, less than 2 days of rest before their next game.

if that overtime game was at home, they are 3-32 ats in the next game.

my play is:New York +11

I know the guy has been on some kind of streak...so it's hard to deny the guy...but who keeps this kind of information handy? Who would even know to come up with some kind of system? Has anyone had a chance to confirm this information?

Phil_Riv, I think someone on this thread has something to say about this. He has made contact with the Prof and I'll leave it at that.

 

[chasing2day]

what's up ax. what are your thoughts on the orl/miami under 193?

 

[cubboy]

the more i look at this game i like memphis +5.5 ,jackson out maggetti ? and 76% on gs and line not moving

 

[axp59]

what's up ax. what are your thoughts on the orl/miami under 193?

Chase,

I'm torn when looking at this. Of course my lean is the under but when trending this against the current number, it's just showing me over.

ORL 19-17 O/U road
MIA 21-15 O/U home

I capped @190ish but much higher if I take into account H/A tendencies. 195-198 range

taking just recent performances...we're looking at 180's

tough call

 

[Mindframe913]

This heat O/U is real tuff.

I dont get it.

Almost 80 percent on the over and the line drops from 194 to 193 at my book.

At first I loved the over. Now I have no clue whats going on.

I know you guys have spoke about this before. But what does it really mean when public is on one side and the line moves against it...ie opens at 194 and now down to 192 at some books even though majority of public is on over....IS it just the amount of money being that much more on the under rather than the amount of people? Thanks dudes.

 

[JBrilman]

This heat O/U is real tuff.

I dont get it.

Almost 80 percent on the over and the line drops from 194 to 193 at my book.

At first I loved the over. Now I have no clue whats going on.

I know you guys have spoke about this before. But what does it really mean when public is on one side and the line moves against it...ie opens at 194 and now down to 192 at some books even though majority of public is on over....IS it just the amount of money being that much more on the under rather than the amount of people? Thanks dudes.

it is called a reverse line movement and they are good bets IMO. Under looks good here

 

[Mindframe913]

Yea I know its called reverse line movement but is there an exact reason or science behind it lol? I do usualy like going with it and betting. Your right. Just sucks cause at first I loved the over.

 

[axp59]

Yea I know its called reverse line movement but is there an exact reason or science behind it lol? I do usualy like going with it and betting. Your right. Just sucks cause at first I loved the over.

99 people betting $100 each = $9,900 over

1 person bets $20,000 under

public favors over 99%-1%

books move number down to get more money on the over. Don't care how many people bet, only cares about getting = $$ on each side.

 

[Joe_Vienna]

I've had enough of looking at tonight's card. Going shopping for tomorrow's sale. BOL

Will you open a new thread?

 

[burnetto57]

burnetto57

burnetto57

:nono:

RE: this variable we talk so much abt most everyday: "the public is betting 70 % on the # and the # moved in the opposite direction", etc.

Couple things: How do we know any given % of $ 'coming in' is public money and not sharps money - where is this figure comming from? 1 particular sportsbook? where?

Perspective: this is obviously a critical # as the Pacers/CHI game showed the other day - can't imagine the money that moved that line wasn't sharps $ ( and as a side note - nobody ever found out why - when sharps $ moves a line that much, late - IMO it usually means some late info caused it, injury, sched ref. was sick, whatever). I think there is a huge difference between whether the line was moved by public or sharps $. And lastly, think that unless someone has a different objective reason for it; when a line movement does not follow public betting - I would always start w/ the hunch the Sharps are causing it and have it right and then go from there.

I asked this earlier and got no response - no big deal - just would like to hear others take - am I way off base w/ this logic? And does not - so called 'reverse line' mean public goin one way/ sharps the other.

And if we, for sake of argument / agree - sahrps picks r better than pubs.??:director:

 

[axp59]

Will you open a new thread?

one sec Joe

 

[cubboy]

ax

ax

was u221 gs your only play tonight?

 

[Flippa2HeadCoin]

:nono:

I asked this earlier and got no response - no big deal - just would like to hear others take - am I way off base w/ this logic? And does not - so called 'reverse line' mean public goin one way/ sharps the other.

And if we, for sake of argument / agree - sahrps picks r better than pubs.??:director:

my 0.02
As I understand it, yes.
line reversal is "sharp" money tipping the scale.
No, they don't always win. I am guesstimating their win percentage would be around 60% or more.
I would rather bet with the sharps more than the public.

 

[axp59]

:nono:

I asked this earlier and got no response - no big deal - just would like to hear others take - am I way off base w/ this logic? And does not - so called 'reverse line' mean public goin one way/ sharps the other.

And if we, for sake of argument / agree - sahrps picks r better than pubs.??:director:

KB, the books know who the sharps are. My previous example wasn't entirely 100% correct since $$ doesn't always determine line moves. If a sharp comes in and wagers on a game, it doesn't matter how much he lays down, the fact that he took a side may be enough to move the line.

 

[axp59]

was u221 gs your only play tonight?

it is sir. U221.5

 

[cubboy]

good luck

 

[Ools]

KB, the books know who the sharps are. My previous example wasn't entirely 100% correct since $$ doesn't always determine line moves. If a sharp comes in and wagers on a game, it doesn't matter how much he lays down, the fact that he took a side may be enough to move the line.

What is the definition of a "sharp"? Who are they? Just curious. (Always hear the term - know what it refers to - but seems odd to me) MIT grads?Gangsters with people bought? Ax - since your over 60% - would you be a "sharp"? Curious????

 

[Joe_Vienna]

MEM @ GS UNDER!

:toast:

 

[axp59]

good luck

BOL to you cub...enjoy the vk