NBA MON 033009 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)
- Thread starter axp59
- Start date
- Mar 18, 2009
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I was trying to get a query to validate some of the angles which PROF from the other side has put up.
I don't know if there is something to indicate the length of a game in the SDQL, but I did run these, and while the results are VERY good, they aren't close to what he came up with.
line<0 and rest<2 and n:rest<2 and pvertime>0 and p:W
SU: 92-67 (2.1)
ATS: 48-107-4 (-3.7) avg line: -5.8
O/U: 84-72-3 (1.3) avg total: 193.5
line<0 and rest<2 and n:rest<2 and p
SU: 42-32 (1.7)
ATS: 23-50-1 (-3.9) avg line: -5.7
O/U: 41-30-3 (1.2) avg total: 192.9
for my query, specifying that the last game was home or away doesn't seem to matter much, since changing the last site to away
SU: 50-35 (2.4)
ATS: 25-57-3 (-3.5) avg line: -5.9
O/U: 43-42-0 (1.3) avg total: 194.0
I'll still take a 68+% result going back over multiple years ANY time.
And, it has not had a losing season in the years in the database.
2008 5-12
2007 2-12
2006 8-13
2005 8-18
2004 8-20
2003 6-12
2002 11-20
But, as others are pointing out, this is UTA at home, and the NYK. So, reasons to be concerned.
I like this one too.
Looking over the query data, I noticed the average total as well.
Looks like we have some fun developing after all....:0corn
- Mar 18, 2009
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OK AX played
NYK + 11
and
GS/MEM under 221
going to fade the public here with both these plays
GL AX and to everyone with there plays. Will step out talk to you guys later.
Just a follow up on betting against the public with big swings in money. Yesterday there were 4 games in the NBA that would IMO qualify as big swings, all went AGAINST the public.
1. The NETS went from -3 to - 4.5, T'WOLVES covered
2. SPURS went from +1.5 to -2, HORNETS covered
3. The O/U in KINGS/SUNS went from 238 to 236.5, OVER was the winner
4. The O/U in WIZARDS/PACERS went from 209 to 207.5, OVER was the winner.
I use any swing more than one(1), ie, from -3 to -4 would not qualify, but to -4.5 would. Just a thought...
1. The NETS went from -3 to - 4.5, T'WOLVES covered
2. SPURS went from +1.5 to -2, HORNETS covered
3. The O/U in KINGS/SUNS went from 238 to 236.5, OVER was the winner
4. The O/U in WIZARDS/PACERS went from 209 to 207.5, OVER was the winner.
I use any swing more than one(1), ie, from -3 to -4 would not qualify, but to -4.5 would. Just a thought...
hey ax gl with your picks. Does your friend who told you to take nj yesterday like them today? i really like them today after a horrible loss to wash yesterday
ax im also looking at the u 199 in this game what do you have it capped at. last 3 meetings were 194 184 and 206 with the 206 being when redd played
wouldn't your NYK +11 being against the public since the JAZZ opened at - 12? OOPS, meant for grindstone
No, we didn't discuss that.
I do have my own thoughts on this game since I looked at it. they are 3-0 ATS against the Bucks this season. The line is exactly where it was the last game in NJ where they covered by 9.5. Other than that, the trends don't look good at all. GL pal.
Again, if you look at the h2h, you'd lean under but then when you look at other situations. Off a road loss, at home, on a b2b...it's neutral, etc. This one is tight.
- Mar 18, 2009
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Not locked on anything just yet..........
Memphis
* Under is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 games as a road underdog.
* Under is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 road games.
* Under is 7-1 in Grizzlies last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Under is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Under is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 games as an underdog.
* Under is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 overall.
* Over is 8-3 in Grizzlies last 11 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
* Under is 10-4 in Grizzlies last 14 games following a S.U. loss.
* Under is 5-2 in Grizzlies last 7 vs. Western Conference.
* Under is 7-3 in Grizzlies last 10 games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 13-6 in Grizzlies last 19 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Golden State
* Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 games as a home favorite.
* Over is 7-0 in Warriors last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
* Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
* Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
* Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
* Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
* Over is 9-2 in Warriors last 11 overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. NBA Southwest.
* Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 games as a favorite.
* Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
* Over is 8-2 in Warriors last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Over is 7-2 in Warriors last 9 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Over is 6-2 in Warriors last 8 vs. Western Conference.
* Over is 44-18 in Warriors last 62 Monday games.
* Over is 37-16-1 in Warriors last 54 home games.
* Over is 35-17-1 in Warriors last 53 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
* Over is 43-21-1 in Warriors last 65 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Just to show some other trends.....
Cheers, Ax. I've just locked in on the U221 after clarification--it was that struggle that I heard in your voice that made me think that you weren't 100% on board with the pick.
A couple of mediocre quarters is what we need. Let's hope we can get it out of two mediocre basketball teams!
A couple of mediocre quarters is what we need. Let's hope we can get it out of two mediocre basketball teams!
best of luck sir. I know you did your homework also. we're going against some trends but i think the books took these trends into account and may have inflated this line knowing some will jump on it regardless of the number. :toast:
Orlando has MUCH more to gain from this win and WADE is running on fumes. He knows he is going to have to start conserving his energy sometime soon to get ready for the playoffs. Tough for Miami to catch Atlanta for 4th and 4-5 over there last 9l here on out should keep them in 5th.
Orlando will win by DD
