NBA SAT 041809 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

[axp59]

A quick note on what looks attractive with the current numbers on the board.

Chicago at Boston O196.5

Dallas +4.5 at San Antonio

Houston at Portland -4

I have my reasons but I'll like to open this up for discussion. I believe these 3 plays are offering good value. If you think I'm way off, please let me know why? Thanks in advance.

Back to work! BOL.

 

[Eagle123]

Ax,
It is so nice to see you back
BOL to us on the play off:mj06:

 

[petesirr]

Ax!!!!!! Great to have you back. Can't wait to get an MLB thread going where I can actually contribute. I'm going to tail you guys on the NBA playoffs and I'm not afraid to admit it!!! I lost my ass on basketball this year until I followed Ax's UNDER plays and re-couped a few bucks.

Again, great to see you back and I hope everything is well with you and your family.

 

[easterntimezone]

Ax -

Re: Portland side; young team that doesn't know anything heading into the playoffs w/ a devil-may-care attitude - only concern is that they're not well-schooled in how intense each possession is in the playoffs w/ the exception of only Blake and Pryzbilla. May take them a game or so to get their heads straight - that said, the happy-go-lucky mentality alluded to may be of greater benefit in that they won't know any better. Do like the fact that they're @ home in the Rose Garden though - and if they're trailing at the half, expect them to make a 2nd half surge like they've been known to do all season long.

Any input on whether or not Garnett's anticipated absence for the playoff run is a bluff?

 

[petesirr]

For what it's worth..... I'm with you on Portland -4 as I believe Houston has been exposed. Shut down Yao and they don't have another go to scorer on that team. Portland is more than capable of doing so and I think the Portland offense can handle the Houston D. I see value in giving only 4 pts.

I also agree on the Dallas +4.5. This just isn't the Spurs team that we're used to seeing. And while I'm not the biggest fan of the Mavs, they have been playing very well of late and I can definitely smell an upset in this series.

Not sure if I'm with you on the Chi/Bos Over. I just don't see enough value at that number to make me want to lean that way. Do you think Garnett being out will open things up that much? Does Boston really want to run up and down the court with this young, athletic Bulls squad? I tend to think the C's will want to slow things down, focus on their half court offense and strong defense.

Just my two cents, not sure if it's helpful or not.

I'll be tailing whichever selections you guys on this thread decide to lock in on.

 

[PickNPop]

:mj06: Welcome back, old friend!

I'm already on POR -4. Yes, etz they are a young team but they play like veterans already as evidenced by their slow pace. Houston won't be able to handle their depth and Artest will have some 6-21 games that will absolutely kill his team. Not to mention, this is the first playoff game in POR for a few years, the Rose'll be ROCKING!

 

[KillerKardoogan]

i was planning on betting against SA, NO, Dallas,and Utah. i was planning on betting on Denver, Houston, and Portland (at home). had no plans for LA (pts too high).

so with these matchups i got Denver -5.5

too bad about KG, Ax.
i foresaw this a couple of weeks back and actually put some money down on LA +185.
i must really think they're gonna win cause my list of past future bets is slim and that price sucks.

also, i'm not big on provocative statements, BUT, Cleveland will not win the title because LeBron is the weak link.

 

[PickNPop]

etz: Curious as to what your thoughts are on the most probable Finals matchup is? With the KG injury, I can't see anything besides LAL/CLE in June. I'm seriously debating putting a futures bet on both LAL & CLE to win the title. Seems like an arbitrage opportunity?

 

[Griffin8s]

AX!!! Man it seems like months since your last thread!!! It is time, I will have to say sorry about KG for you. But of course us here in O-H...I-O have bigger smiles then ever, it finally our time. After so many years of the Cleveland curse in all sports it the best time ever right now. (Just hope it doesn't bite us again)
Just looked over the lines for the first time and have to tell you man they seem really tight for all games on Saturday. Going to work with them a bit and come up with what I like.
Good to see you back man, Madjack's has missed you for sure.
GL to everyone :toast: here's to alot of cash to us here in the playoffs!!
LET'S GET READY TO RUMMMMBBBBLLLLLLLLEEE!

 

[easterntimezone]

Curious as to what your thoughts are on the most probable Finals matchup is? With the KG injury, I can't see anything besides LAL/CLE in June. I'm seriously debating putting a futures bet on both LAL & CLE to win the title. Seems like an arbitrage opportunity?

Leaning towards those 2 as well PNP - although both teams lack a true outstanding point; Fisher isn't really a stellar 1 whereas Cleveland essentially relies on James as a distributer (Bryant does fill a similar role, but not to the degree of James).

Am a fan of the Blazers ever since their TNT Thursday victory over Miami (w/ Shaq) a season ago and the addition of Roy to their roster - underdogs in that one and personally secured a decent return that night; they're an elite point away from being legitimate contenders who'll be around for quite some time if management and Paul Allen can keep the unit together.

 

[cubboy]

hey ax

hey ax

welcome back brother.. ready to make some cabbage? been doing preety good in bases... gotta go to work catch ya later

 

[cubboy]

pretty good

 

[axp59]

Ax,
It is so nice to see you back
BOL to us on the play off:mj06:

Hey Eagle, you have a fresh bankroll for the playoffs? BOL

 

[axp59]

Ax!!!!!! Great to have you back. Can't wait to get an MLB thread going where I can actually contribute. I'm going to tail you guys on the NBA playoffs and I'm not afraid to admit it!!! I lost my ass on basketball this year until I followed Ax's UNDER plays and re-couped a few bucks.

Again, great to see you back and I hope everything is well with you and your family.

Great to be back sir. I'm itching to jump into bases but I'm not ready. I'm still in the data gathering and note taking stages. I am ready for the NBA though. Thank you, the family is doing well and the dogs are being very good companions watching all these baseball games.

 

[axp59]

Ax -

Re: Portland side; young team that doesn't know anything heading into the playoffs w/ a devil-may-care attitude - only concern is that they're not well-schooled in how intense each possession is in the playoffs w/ the exception of only Blake and Pryzbilla. May take them a game or so to get their heads straight - that said, the happy-go-lucky mentality alluded to may be of greater benefit in that they won't know any better. Do like the fact that they're @ home in the Rose Garden though - and if they're trailing at the half, expect them to make a 2nd half surge like they've been known to do all season long.

Any input on whether or not Garnett's anticipated absence for the playoff run is a bluff?

ETZ, KG injury is real but don't count him out if the C's make a deep run. I do like POR and the fact that they are getting their feet wet at the Rose is a huge advantage. Looking at how they've played the tail end of the season gives me a good feeling about this play. Both team's defenses have tightened up as expected in preparation for the playoffs but POR at home -4 is good value.

 

[axp59]

For what it's worth..... I'm with you on Portland -4 as I believe Houston has been exposed. Shut down Yao and they don't have another go to scorer on that team. Portland is more than capable of doing so and I think the Portland offense can handle the Houston D. I see value in giving only 4 pts.

I also agree on the Dallas +4.5. This just isn't the Spurs team that we're used to seeing. And while I'm not the biggest fan of the Mavs, they have been playing very well of late and I can definitely smell an upset in this series.

Not sure if I'm with you on the Chi/Bos Over. I just don't see enough value at that number to make me want to lean that way. Do you think Garnett being out will open things up that much? Does Boston really want to run up and down the court with this young, athletic Bulls squad? I tend to think the C's will want to slow things down, focus on their half court offense and strong defense.

Just my two cents, not sure if it's helpful or not.

I'll be tailing whichever selections you guys on this thread decide to lock in on.

I'm thinking the same things with POR and DAL. Solid plays IMO. The C's have a completely different game now. They 'd like prefer to slow things down against CHI but the team that's taking the court these days just can't seem to do that. I've watched them lately and they seem to be focused on scoring more than the opp to win rather than focusing on making sure the opp scores less. BOL sir!

 

[axp59]

:mj06: Welcome back, old friend!

I'm already on POR -4. Yes, etz they are a young team but they play like veterans already as evidenced by their slow pace. Houston won't be able to handle their depth and Artest will have some 6-21 games that will absolutely kill his team. Not to mention, this is the first playoff game in POR for a few years, the Rose'll be ROCKING!

Good to be back pal. This may be POD material. I'm approaching my betting strategy for the day as this being the POD.

 

[axp59]

i was planning on betting against SA, NO, Dallas,and Utah. i was planning on betting on Denver, Houston, and Portland (at home). had no plans for LA (pts too high).

so with these matchups i got Denver -5.5

too bad about KG, Ax.
i foresaw this a couple of weeks back and actually put some money down on LA +185.
i must really think they're gonna win cause my list of past future bets is slim and that price sucks.

also, i'm not big on provocative statements, BUT, Cleveland will not win the title because LeBron is the weak link.

This KG thing has the whole town very depressed. LAL is looking more and more like the team to beat but I'm not ready to count anyone out yet. It's going to depend on who comes out of the East. Be careful betting against NOH. I know it looks like this matchup has DEN written all over it but I'm not entirely sold yet. BOL pal. I'll go more in depth hopefully on SUN's thread.

 

[axp59]

AX!!! Man it seems like months since your last thread!!! It is time, I will have to say sorry about KG for you. But of course us here in O-H...I-O have bigger smiles then ever, it finally our time. After so many years of the Cleveland curse in all sports it the best time ever right now. (Just hope it doesn't bite us again)
Just looked over the lines for the first time and have to tell you man they seem really tight for all games on Saturday. Going to work with them a bit and come up with what I like.
Good to see you back man, Madjack's has missed you for sure.
GL to everyone :toast: here's to alot of cash to us here in the playoffs!!
LET'S GET READY TO RUMMMMBBBBLLLLLLLLEEE!

LOL Gunny, It's been a while. There are some tight numbers and it's only going to get tighter since the board is shrinking. Finding the right side is going to require some extra work but it can be done. Let's start this run with a profitable SAT and let's roll with it!

 

[axp59]

welcome back brother.. ready to make some cabbage? been doing preety good in bases... gotta go to work catch ya later

Thanks pal. Mexico seems like a lifetime ago doesn't it? I need a real vacation soon but that only means doing my capping in a remote location.