NBA SAT 041809 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

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Eagle123

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Hey Ax, are we going to lock on Portland -4.5 tonight?
How about Boston over and Mav , ok to bet on them also?
 
proguy747

proguy747

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Griffin8s said:
Ok digging into this one with a open mind on both sides. Warning: Homer Alert!

06/02/07 Detroit W 98-82 Conference Finals W -2 O 173
05/31/07 @ Detroit W 109-107 (OT) Conference Finals W 5.5 O 172
05/29/07 Detroit W 91-87 Conference Finals W 1.5 O 172
05/27/07 Detroit W 88-82 Conference Finals W -4 U 173
05/24/07 @ Detroit L 76-79 Conference Finals W 5.5 U 174.5
05/21/07 @ Detroit L 76-79 Conference Finals W 6.5 U 177

These are the last games played by Det/Clev in the 06-07 playoffs. These teams are notorious for close grind out games and Detroit plays the Cavs very tough everytime. The avg from all 4 games this season is 171 with 2 games under the 175 total and 2 game over it. One has to think Cavs are going to play tough on defense and eat up alot of clock when they have the ball. Or my other thought is Cavs want to just punish the Pistons and send them home just as soon as possible and its a total blow out. Cavs won 3 games this season with that avg being 12.3 and of course line right now of 12. Tight! The one game that pushs avg up where Cavs won by 21pts was in a Sunday game in Det. Other 2 games were 10pts and 6pts.
Cavs fans hate Piston's and the Q is going to be on fire. I was at the 6/02/07 and the thought the roof was going to blow off when Cavs beat them and sent themselves into the Championship. It was by far the loudest place I have every been to besides Bristol. (Nascar Cup Race) I believe Det can expect that same noise everytime they set into the Q.
So you ask what does this boil down to for me. It's a no play on the total and maybe a small smal wager on Det +12 in this first game. But, I would watch this game maybe more then once to see/help predictions in the next games these 2 play. GL to everyone today. This information I hope helps us work towards the right side of things.
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do not bet against your home team cavs are going to play at a completly different level at playoff time. Cavs will crush detroit. cavs are out to make a early sweep and convincing statment.
 
LFTNUT

LFTNUT

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axp59 said:
A quick note on what looks attractive with the current numbers on the board.

Chicago at Boston O196.5

Dallas +4.5 at San Antonio

Houston at Portland -4

I have my reasons but I'll like to open this up for discussion. I believe these 3 plays are offering good value. If you think I'm way off, please let me know why? Thanks in advance.

Back to work! BOL.
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like all three plays if u pull the trigger. good to see you posting again. bol
 
axp59

axp59

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LFTNUT said:
like all three plays if u pull the trigger. good to see you posting again. bol
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Already locked all 3. I use a different strategy for the playoffs. I don't limit myself to one play a day but instead play what I think has some value. Almost forgot how much work the NBA is. BOL with whatever you play today pal
 
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barts185

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Even though I will be looking to fade CLE when they play the stronger teams, I like both BOS and CLE to come out strong today.

Bos -2.5 Q1
Bos over 25.5 Q1

Cle -3.5 Q1
DET under 21 Q1

Good Luck,
Bart
 
cubboy

cubboy

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HEY AX

HEY AX

MY LINE IS 199 FOR BULLS/CELTS WHAT DO YOU THINK
 
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Turc

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axp59 said:
hey Turc. Stop lurking. :)

I know you got something for today.
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So far, I am only liking HOU/POR over. If any of you caught Nate's press conference on Thursday, he admitted their traditional half court offense will not work against Houston defense that specializes on half court defensive schemes, so they will be looking to run more. Adelman mastered Princeton offense in his earlier career, so Houston should be able to adjust to tempo if it increases. Also, Portland plays lot better offense at home- scores almost 4.5 more at home- and they ll be feeding off from the crowd that has been hungry for playoffs last 6 years. I am on it like a fat guy on a triple whopper.

I do like your chi/bos over and por -4 plays.
 
CoFred

CoFred

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Hey Ax, GL with your plays. I'm only taking Portland but Bodog has it at -5. They have the Boston over at 199 so I figured that was way too high. Dallas is at +4. Hope everyone profits today.

:0corn
 
cubboy

cubboy

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just rememember why i started hating the nba ..this bulls /celts game ..they were well on pace for the over and just hit the brakes. i thought that 3rd qt would be about a 55 pt qt the way they were going.. now we need ot or a 56 pt qt:mad:
 
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Eagle123

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MIRCALE

OT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:mj06: :mj06: :mj06: :mj06:
 
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