NBA SAT 050209 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

[barts185]

Off topic: fight fans. I am betting on PAC tonight

OPTION 1:if I bet manny -240

OPTION 2:if I bet manny wins by ko, tko, dq +115
if manny wins by dec +230

question: am I missing something here or is option 2 the bet if betting manny to win anyway. is there another outcome to win in boxing besides ko, tko, dq or dec?

i know atton can win or it's a draw and I lose but if I want to bet PAC and e does win, isn't the value in option 2?

thanks

I know it seems that way, but the answer is actually no by quite a lot, unless you feel that one of the options listed under 2 is more likely

Let's break it down.

Option 1, risk 240 to win 100
So, win 100 or lose 240

Take the same 240 for option 2. Breaking it down to win the same amount regardless of which way he wins.

+115 and +230 makes it simple, you risk twice as much on the +115

160 at +115 will win 184
80 at +230 will win 184

But, you have to lose one of these bets. So, 184 is won but you then have to lose either 160 or 80 on the other wager so your actual win will be either 24 or 104.

If you want to equalize the net win amount.
Keeping it close without going too far into decimals.

145 at +115 will win 166.75, minus 95 net 71.75
95 at +230 will win 218.50, minus 145 net 73.50

moving up a dollar to win more on the +115

146 at +115 will win 167.90, minus 94 net 73.90
94 at +230 will win 216.20, minus 146 net 70.20



Take Care,
Bart

 

[axp59]

Thank you very much Bart. Deep down, I 'think' I knew that. LOL. I think I'm going to parlay Manny and the Under. Small time stuff.

Thanks again pal.

 

[SIMON]

I think these go hand in hand.

If you play the over lean with the Bulls +6.5

If you play the under lean with Celtics -6.5

My first instinct is the pick the winner and game 7's usually mean HOME TEAM.

Simon Says
Under 197
Celtics -6.5
Celtics ML -270

 

[barts185]

FWIW, I really know NOTHING about how to handicap a fight, but some people I respect felt that the line should be around -300.

 

[JSwinz213]

Bro, how you betting Manny tonight? Manny under? I love the play BTW. Thinking of Celtics/Manny/Nuggets 3-way ML parlay. BOL

I think I am going to go with Manny ML in a parlay...and then put a little on the under as well. I think he will finish him...Pacman is a beast!

 

[JSwinz213]

On another note, looks like %66 of public is on the Over for Bos/Chi and the line continues to drop...@ 195.5 right now...any thoughts?

 

[axp59]

I think these go hand in hand.

If you play the over lean with the Bulls +6.5

If you play the under lean with Celtics -6.5

My first instinct is the pick the winner and game 7's usually mean HOME TEAM.

Simon Says
Under 197
Celtics -6.5
Celtics ML -270

I like this reasoning.
homer alert
My initial side lean is on the Bull...therefore the over. God, I do love my Celts. I wish you well with your action Simon.

 

[axp59]

FWIW, I really know NOTHING about how to handicap a fight, but some people I respect felt that the line should be around -300.

I'm hearing the same thing about this number from selected sources. Don't know what that means but it's a good thing. I can tell you the difference .60 makes between two teams but guys hitting each other is another story. Action play for me. Thanks as always

 

[axp59]

On another note, looks like %66 of public is on the Over for Bos/Chi and the line continues to drop...@ 195.5 right now...any thoughts?

Sharps are in Vegas and I'm in Boston. :142smilie

Just kidding. I still like the over. I've watched this series and I believe they can't help but trade baskets. Defense...average. Neither team possess that shut down defense you see from real playoff teams. If the Celtics play the defense they are capable of, the scheme Doc draws up and preaches, this bet is shot. However, 5 of 6 games, I haven't seen it from that group of green on the floor. I'm not sure if it was even the C's D on gm3 that shut down the Bulls. It may have been that the CHI was off their game from the atmosphere. These teams are content with trying to outscore the other for the win and not trying to get a stop on the other end. FWIW...one man's opinion. BOL

 

[Highway_100]

doc rivers pointed out how the celtics defense was not very good and that they would have to get back to playing solid defense in order to win at home----- i like the under in game #7 as i think boston will come out and try to slow the tempo down more to their liking but what do i know :shrug:

You know a winner...Un 197:toast:

 

[KsYaS]

They have so many OT play in this series and 3OT in last game.

Do you think they will have a tired leg and result in a low scoring game?

Tired legs affects jump shots and Defense, people tends to think that Offense is more affected, but remember, a physical team usually is a defensive team, Defense is all about physical effort, Offense can be charted.

Boston is not playing great defense because they do not have Garnett, nobody in Boston bench can replace him in the Defensive end, and the athletisism of Tyrus is just killing them, also Salmons making Pierce work more on Defense, thats why this games has been close.

Call me crazy, but I think Boston chance to win is attacking the Bulls, playing fast pace, they have to push the Bulls to the edge and tire their legs, Bulls live and die on the jump shot, Boston is more physical and inside team, Ray Allen has never been a reliable star because he is soft and do not play physical ball, he is a great shoter and lately he has been dirt, but not physical enough, just dirt.

just my thoughts

 

[Ools]

i have 194.5 on my book? took 1/2 there to go with my 196.5 from 24hrs agao

 

[coolhandluke]

Ax, you still comfortable with the over???

 

[CoFred]

1Q Good
2Q Bad

 

[Eagle123]

90 pts only first half.
Anything we can do on second half?

 

[edludes]

Play it under 97.

 

[Eagle123]

Scary 1st Half, but we made it Ax:mj06: :mj06: :mj06:

 

[axp59]

Scary 1st Half, but we made it Ax:mj06: :mj06: :mj06:

that's why they play two for them eagle. LOL

12-4 playoff run :00hour

Love the discourse everyone, thank you.

back to work :director:

 

[Eagle123]

Line drop to 195 on my side, I think some one lost big on the under...


2 game tomorrow.

Wait for your work

Good night Ax

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Over!

Easy money :toast:

:fit01: