NBA SUN 051009 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

[proguy747]

Man, I just don't think LA will come back. Roskets are getting +10 2H. What do others think - will LA make a push and pull within single digits before the end?

yes lakers will make a big run in the fourth.

Jackson does not give up.

 

[PeePee]

Man, I just don't think LA will come back. Roskets are getting +10 2H. What do others think - will LA make a push and pull within single digits before the end?

Which Lak will show up in 2H???
If it's the best team in NBA as we've seen in reg. season then they will have no problem coming back and win the game as emotion will wear out for the Rockets going into 4th Q.
Or is it the Lak that is ready to go back to LA...

 

[axp59]

2H? It's a crazy number. some things are better left alone. BOL

 

[JBrilman]

2H? It's a crazy number. some things are better left alone. BOL

Agreed Ax!!!!!!!!

Will the Lakers make a run? Probably....is it worth betting on? No they will cover any line that is presented in game 5 so better to wait for that.

As far as the C's game I am not touching a side again until maybe half time. I think it goes over but just not sure enough to pull the trigger. After a GREAT week have no need to give it back on a game I'm gambling on.

 

[PeePee]

I think I'll bite and bank on the Lak girls to come back. If there's a team that can come back with 18 down it's the Lakers with Kobe. Don't see a Phil coached team get blown out.

small play just for the action

 

[Truckin']

BOS/ORL

seems like no value whatsoever on the side play here and the total is a tough read for me. we have 4 hours till tip off and the woman went out to the mall with her friends so I'll be working this Mother's day. I even called my dad for his read on the C's, he is afterall the person that taught me about the NBA. I'm trying to decipher what he said. He thinks this is going to be a slugfest. That's not really taking a side but, a slugfest vs. track meet? Was he saying under. My over lean isn't really because I like the over but more like a fade the under. I hope that makes sense but that's the way I think. Any thoughts fellas?

I have been trying to lay off totals the last week. I like to play unders and the last couple unders I have been burned w/ fouls, ect at the end of games. I liked the under in Den/Dall yesterday and layed off and look what happened. As for Slugfest I tend to agree we could see one of those Eastern Con. ugly ass games tonight something in the 80's back and forth and close at the end w/ no fouling thats whats killing these unders. I think Boston will defend the perimiter and there will not be many open looks for the Magic.

GL

 

[ari]

c'mon fold LA, fold.....:0corn

 

[axp59]

I have been trying to lay off totals the last week. I like to play unders and the last couple unders I have been burned w/ fouls, ect at the end of games. I liked the under in Den/Dall yesterday and layed off and look what happened. As for Slugfest I tend to agree we could see one of those Eastern Con. ugly ass games tonight something in the 80's back and forth and close at the end w/ no fouling thats whats killing these unders. I think Boston will defend the perimiter and there will not be many open looks for the Magic.

GL

This comment is money! There is no way in the world, and I mean no way, ORL hits 59.1% from the field again. 50% from 3? Let's knock that down a little also.

 

[ari]

I really like the Over and could easily be convinced to take the Cs +

 

[barts185]

Not sure if it's too early to start discussing the next game, but I'm probably going to like Houston.

Lakers lost 19 games this season.

Playing after a loss, they won by an average of 6.9 points.

At home after a loss (9 games), they won by an average of 9.4

They lost by 10 or more 7 times, they are 1-6 ATS in the games following those losses, winning by an average of 2.2 points. Now, only 2 of those 7 games were at home, and they were early in the year, but they won by 7 against CHI and by 5 against PHO.

I'm actually rooting for the Lakers to make some sort of comeback because I will be concerned if Houston gives them their worse loss of the season, even though that hasn't seemed to be a big motivating point for them.

Their worst loss was 17 to Portland on 03/09 and they beat Houston on 03/11 by only 6.

After a loss, the Lakers played a team with a .600 or better win percentage 5 times, going 3-2 SU and ATS. Average score was 104.8-99.4

Take Care,
Bart

 

[Truckin']

This comment is money! There is no way in the world, and I mean no way, ORL hits 59.1% from the field again. 50% from 3? Let's knock that down a little also.

This along with the zebra's swallowing there whistles could be the "SLUGFEST" your dad is talking about.

We will get Maximum defensive effort from the C's tonight or they will be golfing by the end of next week.

Leaning C's ML for a small %

 

[proguy747]

The gambler in me says go for it money line biggg!

I am glad I listen to my inner self. 28 point 4th qrtr cushion for moneyline. :00hour :00hour :00hour :00hour :00hour

 

[grindstone]

Congrats AX never needed the points


:11jackson :11jackson :11jackson :00x1 :00x1

 

[axp59]

Not a bad day...

Since I've already been to the window...I will need to see real hard value to take action tonight. line watching for the next hour...

 

[PickNPop]

Congrats everyone! Especially to those with the cajones to take the ML. :mj06:

Thanks for another winner, ax! :00hour

My Lakers to win the title future = :mj07: :142smilie

 

[Griffin8s]

FYI
The HOU ML is off by about $28 per $100
win prob% vs +340

Well worth a little investment on HOU SU.

I took the bait for action play ...1/20U

BOL fellas, this one is strictly a value play gamble

No, this comment is money. I have to hand it to you man you got balls!!! Great job!! Took Houston and the points myself.:00hour

Hard to decide on this next game still:00x32 Took C's the last time and got burnt hard to do it again.

 

[proguy747]

celtics moneyline!

 

[grindstone]

Here are the latest public #'s


Bost/Orl

Spread
Bost 56%
Orl 44%

Total Open192 Current 194.5
71% Over
29% Under


Vegas must of made some nice money today boys. 81% of the public were on the LAL and 65% were on the over.

I think if this Bost/Orl total keeps climbing an under play might have to be considered. Let's see what happens will keep the #'s up to date. Stay tuned

 

[axp59]

Here are the latest public #'s


Bost/Orl

Spread
Bost 56%
Orl 44%

Total Open192 Current 194.5
71% Over
29% Under


Vegas must of made some nice money today boys. 81% of the public were on the LAL and 65% were on the over.

I think if this Bost/Orl total keeps climbing an under play might have to be considered. Let's see what happens will keep the #'s up to date. Stay tuned

GS, let's hope so. The more I look at this game and play it out in my head, the more I like the under. Let's wait and see how the "experts" play their $$$

 

[grindstone]

Hey AX found this from the other site shoud we be concerned???



Well it's not exactly groundbreaking news, but tonight will be the Celtics 11th game in 23 nights. And if you factor in the 7 OT's they played in the first round (7 x 5 = 35 extra minutes) that's almost an extra game right there. So essentially, Boston is playing their 12th game in 23 nights. That's a lot of minutes. They have to be getting tired.

I was dead set on pounding the shit out of the Celtics this morning, but after uncovering all this, I think I'm just going to pass. Many are expecting the Celtics to pick themselves off the canvas and rebound tonight, but I wouldn't be sure given the fatigue that must surely be setting in.