NBA SUN 051009 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

[Slicer]

Accuscore Sides: 23-31-2 (2-0 yesterday)
Accuscore Totals: 34-22-1 (1-1 Yesterday)

Sunday: Orlando 4.9 and 188.5
Lakers 8.1 and 189.5

Trend Notes:

Unders of 4.0-4.9 and 27-20-1
Unders of 5.0+ are 16-10-1

Dogs < 1.0 are 26-29-1
Favs < 1.0 are 24-29-1

 

[compita_luigi]

8.5 points now..is yao worth 5 pts? mmm don`t think so.. time to grab the points..

What do ya think AX?

 

[proguy747]

the under looks very good as the lakers will come out not focused and expecting an easy win as does the public. Houston moneyline at +310 seems like a great value. Remember orlando when superman was suspended for one game. The only blowout of the series. Ralston out for the magic they blowout the celtics. The gambler in me says go for it money line biggg!

 

[axp59]

LOL, man I'm starting to think this may not stop climbing. Can we get 9 or 10?

 

[JBrilman]

FWIW I'm just watching today. No bets unless a 2nd half screams value like a tied Laker game.

 

[axp59]

This is still going to be a 5 on 5 game on the court. Ming out doesn't mean HOU on fields 4 guys.

NBA [726] HOU GM4 +8-110
1U

BOLTA

leaning under BTW and best Value ML play is HOU.

 

[axp59]

BOS/ORL

leaning over for now. No play for me yet

 

[axp59]

FWIW I'm just watching today. No bets unless a 2nd half screams value like a tied Laker game.

Hope your Friday evening with the lady went Jus.

 

[ari]

Rockets 1U [handshake] - thanks Ax

 

[axp59]

FYI
The HOU ML is off by about $28 per $100
win prob% vs +340

Well worth a little investment on HOU SU.

I took the bait for action play ...1/20U

BOL fellas, this one is strictly a value play gamble

 

[proguy747]

The more I look into this game I feel the under is not a good play. I believe the over will be a consider as brooks and the boys love to run but pull up waiting for yao to post up or set the screen. This will be a run and gun style game.

 

[barts185]

CRIS just moved the first quarter line to 3.

Can't pass that up.

I'm on HOU Q1 +3 -115.

Good Luck,
Bart

 

[Griffin8s]

The guys on TV said Houston 3-0 against the Lakers when Ming is out of the game. hmmmm... I'm think we got to be good w/ +8.5 BOL of luck to us guys!!! GL Ax on the ML I'll be pulling for you Bro, to much of a gamble for me... I would be pulling my hair out if I take that one.:scared :mj07:

 

[PeePee]

On a side note, without Yao Houston will look to push the tempo and fast break pts (which I believe they had 9 for this entire series) which = over ???

 

[JBrilman]

Hope your Friday evening with the lady went Jus.

It went great. Thank for asking.

As I expected MY lakers came out way flat. Let's here everyones thoughts on 2nd half as we get there.

 

[axp59]

BOS/ORL

seems like no value whatsoever on the side play here and the total is a tough read for me. we have 4 hours till tip off and the woman went out to the mall with her friends so I'll be working this Mother's day. I even called my dad for his read on the C's, he is afterall the person that taught me about the NBA. I'm trying to decipher what he said. He thinks this is going to be a slugfest. That's not really taking a side but, a slugfest vs. track meet? Was he saying under. My over lean isn't really because I like the over but more like a fade the under. I hope that makes sense but that's the way I think. Any thoughts fellas?

 

[ari]

BOS/ORL

seems like no value whatsoever on the side play here and the total is a tough read for me. we have 4 hours till tip off and the woman went out to the mall with her friends so I'll be working this Mother's day. I even called my dad for his read on the C's, he is afterall the person that taught me about the NBA. I'm trying to decipher what he said. He thinks this is going to be a slugfest. That's not really taking a side but, a slugfest vs. track meet? Was he saying under. My over lean isn't really because I like the over but more like a fade the under. I hope that makes sense but that's the way I think. Any thoughts fellas?

I think they run and run hard = over. I don't see a blow out on either side no matter which team shows up for the Cs or M - so no slow down. I still lean Under - considering playing Under 1H and making another call at Half.

Someone asked about 2H for the Lakeshow - i think they may have folded already. I could be way off here - but I don't see Kobe et al. putting much effort into this game - pack it in and move on seems to be their nonverbal communication at the moment.

 

[BIGWave]

Posted mie already and still think it's the way I have to play it.

GL pal.:0corn

 

[ari]

Man, I just don't think LA will come back. Roskets are getting +10 2H. What do others think - will LA make a push and pull within single digits before the end?

 

[ari]

anyone?