from a capper I respect on another site
Probably sounds like 'Captain Obvious' question - but the Lakers' trend all Playoffs Long has been to Coast thru Roadies - even vs less-talented teams (Houston comes to mind).
Maybe I'm ingesting the proverbial 'Zen Purple Stuff', BUT, I truly think The Lakers have turned the corner in effort and attention to opponent - as Kobe Bryant clearly explained:
"We've had stretches where we've played excellent defense," Bryant said, "But the competition we're facing with this Denver Nuggets team is unlike anything we've ever seen. They have so many scorers, they have an inside presence. So ... I'm very proud of how we performed in that stretch."
Thru Game 4, Denver was the team gaining all the energy \ effort points (as detailed in previous thread).
Game 5, although EVER QUARTER WAS PLAYED TO A STANDSTILL (only 4th Playoff Game in HISTORY when this has happened) The Lakers reversed the 4th Qtr Nuggets dominance of these effort areas:
FT ATT:
LAL: 16
DEN: 7
4TH QTR
LAL: 27-18
FG's
DEN: 5-19, 1-8 from deep (of Denver's 5 FG's Made, FOUR were lay-ins or dunks)
LAL: 7-16, 2-9 from deep
MOST NOTABLY, LAL got resurgent contributions - largely in ENERGY Minutes from two of the otherwise M.I.A. Laker Mainstays:
ODOM: 19 PTS & 14 REB
FISHER: 12 Pts
With the good minutes LAL has been getting all series from Shanon Brown and Jordan Farmar - if they ALSO get these positive minutes from Starters Odom and Fisher to begin with - the Lakers are in high gear with BOTH facets working well.
THE PRIMARY Laker PLUS to come out of GAME 5 was the manner in which LAL appears to have solved the other baffling and Denver's successful, gambling doubles that have been keeping Kobe on the lower end of his FG% - and somehow making the extra pass more difficult in the razor-thin passing lanes of the Laker Triangle Offense.
Kobe - to his immense credit - was so much quicker to see the doubles - and looked more to the HIGH POSTING GASOL, then made the multiple extra pass to get so many more open lay-ins -
Gasol - also to his credit - also was content to just touch pass back to wing, then either get the re-entry back or LAL worked the swing much better to get so many more open looks than they'd received in the previous two games in Denver.
LAL simply counter-punched the over-play with great station-to-station, Multiple-extra passing, Triangle Work; i.e., Classic Film Work Carried forth onto court.
Lastly - DENVER'S, "Whata we have to do?" problem. As far as Denver has come this Breakthrough Playoff Season
13-2 ATS
PLUS 11 PPG
Den now lost 2 of 3 ATS, despite very few lapses of play:
12 MIN stretch - Gm 5: Nuggs from UP 13 Md-3 to Down 7 Md-4
FIRST T-O of Qtr, G2 @1:11 - 4th, K Martin's lazy pass stolen by Ariza I (ditto - G5)
These Losses - when the vast majority of Game Play is at a outstanding level...are rough psychologically...
DENVER SEEMED VISIBLY DEFLATED AFTER GAME 5
LAL IN TURN WAS ENERGIZED - AND IT SHOWED ON STAT SHEET.
Denver's Body Language and abrasive retorts have shown these hairline cracks in their confidence that we've expected to see from the outset vs LAL.
Chaucy Billips is visibly confused by Denver's 2-3 deficit, when they've played near perfect ball:
"For most of the series, we outplayed them for most stretches of the game," Chauncey Billups said. "We just couldn't get over the hump in the fourth quarter in a few different situations."
Denver's 11 Technical Fouls are indicative of their frustrations, and Head Coach George Karl didn't hold back this week - and bristled when asked about Denver's resolve; when Karl was openly questioned about Denver's frustration level, he cut loose on Press Row:
"You guys are almost saying you've got to have savvy and poise to be a championship team," Karl told reporters Thursday. "I mean, you think the Detroit Pistons have the poise that the San Antonio Spurs have? No, I mean there's a different way of handling emotional, passionate, intense players. We have some guys who are emotional. Maybe a little too emotional. But for me, I'm not going to tell them to stop that because I think that stops them from becoming a competitor.
It also remains a real mystery how G Karl continues to play non-contributors (D Jones and JR Smith - when he's not 'ON')
In either case - I truly believe the Lakers have reached the point of clarity here....and will cover if not win tonight with resurgence of Odom, Fisher, et al - and high energy Denver youth is finally hitting the wall - is about out of steam and patience...but may win a tight game to force Game 7 - too close to call LAL on Spread line alone...BUT I REALLY like this teaser.
I like LA to cover with teaser line - and the 8 of 9 Unders will continue with this slightly higher teaser number giving us enough room to clear the Under.
3 UNITS | 4.5 POINT TEASER
LA LAKERS AT DENVER
LAL +10 TO UNDER 214