college plays for 10/6-10/10....

[AR182]

went 13-10 last week, 8-3 in totals....still not where i want to be....season record is....58-52....but record in totals is....25-10....which is very surprisng....

made these plays earlier today....will have writeups asap....

kentucky+12....
conn.+10(125)....
purdue+4....

good luck....

 

[LDB]

bol this coming week ar... keep up the good work... always look forward to your posts:mj06:

 

[AR182]

thanks ld....appreciate it....


adding....

tcu-10(120)....

air force is coming off an emotional ot loss to navy....offensively they are not playing well & other than against new mexico, who is going through major changes, af has scored 1 offensive td this year against d-1teams....they haven't scored an offensive td in 8 quarters & 1 of those games was against san diego st..... their offense is not playing well at all.....last week against navy, af registered 14 first downs & 0 offensive tds....earlier this year against sdst, af got 12 first downs & again 0 offensive tds....last year vs tcu they got 7 first downs & gained 161 total yards of offense....

no matter who is playing tcu, it is very difficult to run on them....the only way to have a chance to beat tcu's defense is to be able to throw the ball....for the year, af averages 82 ypg through the air....

on the other side of the ball & against a tougher schedule than what af has played, tcu is averaging 220 rushing yards per game(4.7 ypr) & is averaging203 ypg through the air & is completing 68% of it's passes....air force allows 60.9% completion on defense....

since 1992, air force is 5-19 ats vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att....

since 1992, af is 8-22 ats vs. good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play....

i usually don't like to lay dd points on the road, but i think that af doesn't match up well at all vs. tcu & i think tcu wins this game by at least 20 points....


good luck....

 

[mw]

Great thread as always. Good luck this week.

 

[mw]

kentucky+12....
conn.+10(125)....
purdue+4....

Like them all -- especially the last two. Haven't pulled the trigger on UK or TCU yet, but I am definitely leaning that way.

 

[layinwood]

I never mind having a play on TCU. It seems like I always feel like I have a good chance with them and I know under Patterson they are going to play hard every game.

Good luck on your plays AR!

 

[#cruncher]

Leaning to Ky to AR...great job overall and especialy on the totals!

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....appreciate it....

added a few plays....this is who i have so far this week....

kentucky+12....
conn.+10(125)....
purdue+4....
tcu-10(120)....
gt+3....
toledo-7(115)....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

added....

smu+7....
iowa-7(120)....

here is who i played so far this week....

kentucky+12....
conn.+10(125)....
purdue+4....
tcu-10(120)....
gt+3....
toledo-7(115)....
smu+7....
iowa-7(120)....

 

[hawkeye]

I hope you are right on the hawks--keep up the good record.

 

[Irish]

GL this weekend AR!

Cheers
Irish

 

[big papi]

AR I tink you are right about Kentucky. Here are the steam moves from 5dimes which have been on fire!





rigger Date Steam Move LH Trigger Book View Sportsbooks
10/3 8:51 P (193) 10/3 Play on UTEP 14.5 W LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
10/3 3:31 P (197) 10/3 Play on Florida Atlantic -4.5 L LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
10/3 11:17 A (125) 10/3 Play on Boston College 4 W LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
10/3 9:49 A (159) 10/3 Play on Ohio 3 W LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
10/2 6:09 P (155) 10/3 Play on Michigan State -3.5 W LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
10/2 5:08 P (143) 10/3 Play on Washington U 12.5 W LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
10/2 3:57 P (119) 10/3 Play on Wake Forest -2.5 W LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
10/1 6:06 P (199) 10/3 Play on Ul Monroe -6 W LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
10/1 5:56 P (181) 10/3 Play on Tulsa -16.5 W LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
10/1 5:48 P (103) 10/1 Play on West Virginia -16.5 L LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
10/1 4:30 P (105) 10/1 Play on So Mississippi -9.5 L LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
10/1 11:38 A (163) 10/3 Play on Colorado State -3 L LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
10/1 11:35 A (141) 10/3 Play on Virginia Tech -16.5 L LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
9/30 4:11 P (195) 10/3 Play on Arkansas State 21 W LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
9/30 1:41 P (183) 10/3 Play on Arkansas 1 W LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
9/30 1:31 P (115) 10/3 Play on NorthWestern 7.5 W LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
9/30 12:09 P (139) 10/3 Play on Tulane 7 W LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
9/29 11:36 A (101) 9/30 Play on Louisiana Tech -3.5 W LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
9/29 10:47 A (103) 10/1 Play on Colorado 17.5 W LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
9/28 6:03 P (197) 10/3 Play on Florida Atlantic -3 L LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
9/28 3:27 P (101) 9/30 Play on Louisiana Tech -3.5 W LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
9/28 11:53 A (191) 10/3 Play on San Diego State -16.5 W LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
9/27 8:04 P (143) 10/3 Play on Notre Dame -13.5 L LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
9/27 7:22 P (137) 10/3 Play on Temple -4 W LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks

 

[big papi]

Trigger Date Steam Move LH Trigger Book View Sportsbooks
10/6 3:39 P (371) 10/10 Play on Kentucky 10.5 LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
10/5 5:26 P (389) 10/10 Play on UTEP -2.5 LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
10/5 4:33 P (345) 10/10 Play on Tennessee U 0 LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
10/5 3:23 P (309) 10/10 Play on Michigan State -4 LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
10/5 1:01 P (391) 10/10 Play on Idaho 4 LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks
10/4 7:34 P (317) 10/10 Play on Wake Forest -10 LH 5Dimes (68-40-4, 62%, 21.43 units) View Sportsbooks

 

[tulah]

Been gambling for a long while but I have no Idea what your referencing Big Papi.....:shrug:

HELP Please....


GL this week AR:toast:

 

[big papi]

Been gambling for a long while but I have no Idea what your referencing Big Papi.....:shrug:

HELP Please....


GL this week AR:toast:

I was referencing the steam moves triggered by 5 dimes so far this season to show how profitable they have been!

Steam Moves are defined as sudden line movement across the entire sports betting marketplace. "Steam" occurs when there is a sudden overload of money placed at multiple locations. Steam in most cases occurs due to betting groups, betting syndicates, and a few key players with the resources to "get down heavily" at multiple locations, all at once. We record these dramatic line moves and which sportsbook "initiated" or "triggered" the steam move. Undoubtedly there are sportsbook that set the market and sportsbook that follow the market. Steam Move betting systems allow member to know which moves to follow and which moves to fade.

Following Steam Moves this year at 5dimes this year has hit 62% and up 21.43 units.

 

[tulah]

Thanks....
Interesting stuff....:0corn

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....

added 2 more plays....

miss.+7(120)....
fla.-6(130)....

i'll have more of a writeup on both plays later, especially fla....but i thought that since the greek dropped the line the fla. line to 7, i decided to play it by buying a point down to 6....

here is an article on tebow that appeared in yesterday's gainesville newspaper....


By Robbie Andreu
Staff writer

Published: Monday, October 5, 2009 at 5:44 p.m.

Quarterback Tim Tebow is himself again, Florida coach Urban Meyer said Monday.

He can go to class, he can watch television and game tape, he can tolerate bright light ? and he has no headache.

"From what I understand, there are no symptoms (remaining from his concussion)," Meyer said. "I think he's cleared to act like Tim Tebow."

But when will he be cleared to play football?

That's the big question hovering over the top-ranked Gators as they prepare this week for No. 4 LSU in Baton Rouge on Saturday night.

At this point, Meyer doesn't have the answer.
"Tim looks a lot better," Meyer said at his weekly news conference. "He continues to work with our doctors and training staff, who are doing a phenomenal job. Other than that, I don't know.

These things are day-to-day.

"His symptoms and his headache have been gone for several days now. He looks good. No, he won't practice (Monday). He has not been cleared."

Tebow sustained a concussion late in the third quarter of the Kentucky game Sept. 26. Since the day after the injury, he's undergone testing with UF doctors and trainers every day but one. Last week, Tebow was still showing symptoms of a concussion, including a slight headache.

The symptoms are gone now, but there's still no word on when he'll be cleared to play.
Meyer said he might find out in the next day or two. Or he might not know until late in the week.
Meyer said he's not certain how late would be too late for Tebow to play in Saturday night's game.
"That's a hard question. I can't answer," Meyer said. "Can Tim play quarterback at Florida against a very good defense without practicing? I don't know that. That's something we'll (determine) as we move on."

Meyer said if Tebow returns to practice at some point this week, he will not get hit.

Meanwhile, with Tebow's status still uncertain, the Gators are preparing No. 2 quarterback John Brantley to start Saturday night's game.

"Obviously, I have a lot of confidence (in Brantley)," Meyer said. "It's not false confidence. It's confidence from what you see in practice.
"We would have liked him to have a few more game reps at this point. The thing I can see on this team is he's not going in there by himself. He's got 10 other guys on offense, some very mature guys who are going to take care of that guy.

"The Pounceys are going to be right there, and (Riley) Cooper and those three backs (Jeff Demps, Chris Rainey and Emmanuel Moody). Johnny isn't going to be in there by himself. He had a very good week of practice (last week). He gets the ball out real fast."

Meyer said if Brantley is the guy, the changes in the offense would be minimal.
"Things will change a little bit," Meyer said. "I've been asked that question. It's obvious. It doesn't mean we're going to abandon some of our running game that has been so good. (Brantley) has some strength."

If Brantley starts and Tebow isn't cleared, the No. 3 quarterback could be junior punter Chas Henry, who was a quarterback in high school. True freshman quarterback Jordan Reed missed practice last week with flu-like symptoms, but also likely will get reps at quarterback this week, Meyer said.

Meyer also said two other players could line up and take direct snaps. One likely would be starting cornerback Joe Haden, who saw some preseason practice time at quarterback.


here is a list of who i have played so far this week...

kentucky+12....
conn.+10(125)....
purdue+4....
tcu-10(120)....af is off an ot loss....
gt+3....
toledo-7(115)....
smu+7....
iowa-7(120)....mich.is off an ot loss....
miss.+7(120)....
fla.-6(130)....i'll bite....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

here's a writeup on my fla play....


fla-6(120)....

i anticipate this line to dramatically go up if it is announced that tebow is playing...so i may go for a middle depending on where it lands....& if he doesn't go, i'll take my chances that fla. will still win this game ats because i think that fla. is that good....

this is by far the toughest defense that lsu qb jefferson will face & there should be some worry on the part of the lsu coaching staff that lsu's offense is only averaging 321 ypg for the season against such teams as wash.(319 yds.), vandy(326), lafayette (332),miss. st.(263), & georgia(368)....while it's true that to date fla. has faced an easier schedule than lsu, i still think the fla defense will shut lsu down....in 18 of it's last 20 games, fla has held their opponent to 20 points or less....

although fla. has lost to an sec west team every year since 1999, urban meyers teams are 27-3 with an extra week to prepare & since 1992 meyer teams are 16-3 ats with an extra week or more to prepare....& since 1992 fla. is 7-1 ats at lsu....

some additional trends....

over the last 2 seasons fla. is 8-0 ats when playing against a team with a winning record....the average score was fla. 45.1, opponent 13.1....

over the last 3 seasons lsu is 0-8 ats (i'm pretty sure that lsu was favored in all of these games & in some, they may even have been a big favorite) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons....the average score was lsu 30.8, opponent 31.9....

since 1992 lsu is 5-19 ats in home games when playing against a top-level team (win pct. > 75%)....the average score was lsu 20.0, opponent 26.1....

since 1992 lsu is 2-12 ats in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6.25 yards/play....the average score was lsu 24.9, opponent 31.1....

2 system's....

play on - favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (fla) - average passing team (175-230 py/game) against an average passing defense (175-230 py/game), after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game....

over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....23-3....88.5%....

the average line posted in these games was: team favored by 6.2....the average score in these games was: team 32, opponent 15.6....the number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17....68% of all games....

over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....15-1....93.7%....


play on - favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (fla.) - average passing team (175-230 py/game) against an average passing defense (175-230 py/game), after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game....

over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....25-5....83.3%....

the system's record this season is....2-0....


i am well aware that lsu has won su 32 consecutive saturday night home games....but they never played a team that has/had the edges on offense (if tebow plays), defense, & special teams....

i have also added 3 totals to the list of my plays....

under 45 (125) tcu / af....
under 47(115) geo. / tenn....
under 53 (115) idaho / san jose....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

added 3 more plays....i'll have writeups when i get a chance....

ark.+3
under 59(120) lt / nev....2 running teams....
under 70 houst. / miss. st....sec team & possible thunderstorms....


here is who i have played so far this week....

kentucky+12....
conn.+10(125)....
purdue+4....
tcu-10(120)....af is off an ot loss....
gt+3....
toledo-7(115)....
smu+7....
iowa-7(120)....mich.is off an ot loss....
miss.+7(120)....
fla.-6(130)....i'll bite....
under 45 (125) tcu / af....
under 47(115) geo. / tenn....
under 53 (115) idaho / san jose....
ark.+3....
under 59(120) lt / nev....
under 70 houst. / miss. st....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

adding....

under 47(120) n. mex. / wyom....

there is a possibility that it may snow before & during this game....

play under - any team against the total (n. mexico) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in the first half of the season....

over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....23-3....88.5%....

the average total posted in these games was: 53.4
....the average score in these games was: team 17.6, opponent 26....the number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19....73.1%....


here are 2 systems on a total that i already posted....

under 70 houston / miss. st....

this game features a team from the southeast & where there may be a thunderstorm....

play under - all teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (houston & miss. st.)) - after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game, game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning....

over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....32-8....80%....

over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....8-0....100%....

play under - all teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (miss. st.) - after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game, game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning.....

over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....24-4....85.7%....

over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....5-0....100%....


good luck....