college plays for 10/6-10/10....
- Thread starter AR182
- Start date
Hey AR,
Just out of curiousity, will you be taking Arizona to cover vs Washington? I believe this was the third game that fell into the OT system (Wash lost to Notre Dame).
AZ should be able to control the flow of the game by rushing and keep Washington under 200 yds passing. Plus they covered the last two meetings. Took them at -2, just curious if you will add this?
Good luck, appreciate the plays.
Just out of curiousity, will you be taking Arizona to cover vs Washington? I believe this was the third game that fell into the OT system (Wash lost to Notre Dame).
AZ should be able to control the flow of the game by rushing and keep Washington under 200 yds passing. Plus they covered the last two meetings. Took them at -2, just curious if you will add this?
Good luck, appreciate the plays.
hey coach k....
logically if you follow the system a play on az should be made & it's probably the right side on this game....but the opening line was az.-2.5 which in my mind is not a favorite line....so i will skip that play....
good luck this week coach k....
logically if you follow the system a play on az should be made & it's probably the right side on this game....but the opening line was az.-2.5 which in my mind is not a favorite line....so i will skip that play....
good luck this week coach k....
adding 2 totals....
under 55 fla. int'l / w. kentucky....
under 52 utah st / n. mex. st.....
here's a list of who i played so far this week....
kentucky+12....
conn.+10(125)....
purdue+4....
tcu-10(120)....af is off an ot loss....
gt+3....
toledo-7(115)....
smu+7....
iowa-7(120)....mich.is off an ot loss....
miss.+7(120)....
fla.-6(130)....i'll bite....
under 45 (125) tcu / af....
under 47(115) geo. / tenn....
under 53 (115) idaho / san jose....
ark.+3....
under 59(120) lt / nev....
under 70 houst. / miss. st....
under 47 n. mex. / wyom....
under 55 fla. int'l / w. kentucky....
under 52 utah st / n. mex. st.....
good luck....
under 55 fla. int'l / w. kentucky....
under 52 utah st / n. mex. st.....
here's a list of who i played so far this week....
kentucky+12....
conn.+10(125)....
purdue+4....
tcu-10(120)....af is off an ot loss....
gt+3....
toledo-7(115)....
smu+7....
iowa-7(120)....mich.is off an ot loss....
miss.+7(120)....
fla.-6(130)....i'll bite....
under 45 (125) tcu / af....
under 47(115) geo. / tenn....
under 53 (115) idaho / san jose....
ark.+3....
under 59(120) lt / nev....
under 70 houst. / miss. st....
under 47 n. mex. / wyom....
under 55 fla. int'l / w. kentucky....
under 52 utah st / n. mex. st.....
good luck....
thanks burns....appreciate it....
added a few more plays....
under 54(120) n. tex. / laf....
play under - all teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (laf.) - poor rushing team (100-140 ry/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (140-190 ry/game), after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games....
since 1992 the record for this system is....27-6....81.8%....
over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....9-0....100%....
over the last 5 seasons the system's record is....15-1....93.7%....
under 52 ohio / akron....
since 1992 ohio is 7-0 under off a road win against a conference rival....the average score was ohio 20....opponent 22.2....
miami o+20(120)....
nw is in a big-10 sandwich & is 2-8 ats as a home favorite....also game 6 bowlers from the previous year are 13-30 ats (30%) against winless opponents....
play against - home favorites (nw) - off a win against a conference rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season....
over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....31-10....75.6%....
illinois+4....
mich. st. is off a thrilling ot game against rival michigan & is 3-7 ats in the next game after playing michigan....i look for illy to be up for this home game with their new starting qb mcgee & take advantage of msu's # 88th ranked pass defense (allowing a 63% pass completion & a 12/3 td/int ratio)....
good luck....
added a few more plays....
under 54(120) n. tex. / laf....
play under - all teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (laf.) - poor rushing team (100-140 ry/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (140-190 ry/game), after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games....
since 1992 the record for this system is....27-6....81.8%....
over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....9-0....100%....
over the last 5 seasons the system's record is....15-1....93.7%....
under 52 ohio / akron....
since 1992 ohio is 7-0 under off a road win against a conference rival....the average score was ohio 20....opponent 22.2....
miami o+20(120)....
nw is in a big-10 sandwich & is 2-8 ats as a home favorite....also game 6 bowlers from the previous year are 13-30 ats (30%) against winless opponents....
play against - home favorites (nw) - off a win against a conference rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season....
over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....31-10....75.6%....
illinois+4....
mich. st. is off a thrilling ot game against rival michigan & is 3-7 ats in the next game after playing michigan....i look for illy to be up for this home game with their new starting qb mcgee & take advantage of msu's # 88th ranked pass defense (allowing a 63% pass completion & a 12/3 td/int ratio)....
good luck....
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i'm glad that we are on the same page, mw....
a few thoughts on some of my plays....
kentucky+12....
i think this line is very inflated because of the perception of both teams....however i don't think there is much difference between these 2 teams....from 2006-2008, uk's record in sec play is 9-15, while so.car's is 10-14....this year, uk has played both fla & bama & held both below their season average in passing....for the season uk is ranked #16th in the nation in pass defense....iin a game where points will be at a premium,'ll take the dog who played the tougher schedule....
conn.+10(125)....
this is another game where points will hard to get....i'll take the dog who runs the ball well & who allows 15 ppg & has the better defense by 110 ypg....in addition conn. is 7-3 ats coming off a bye....
purdue+4....
i have seen a few of minny's games & am not impressed with their style of football....they can't run the ball & if you are able to contain their star receiver, their offense doesn't seem to do much....on offense purdue can run & throw the ball well as they average 4.8 ypr on the ground & completes on average 61% of their passes....on defense minn. allows 63% completion rate....minn. averages 3.3 ypr & 62% completion rate...on defense purdue allows a completion rate of 58%....i think this is a field goal game if purdue can hold on to the ball....& i wouldn't be surprised if purdue wins this game su....
gt+3....
i know a few quality cappers taking fla. st because they feel that fsu will "circle the wagons" as a way of backing bowden against calls for bowden to step down....they may do that but i just think gt is a better team than fsu & better coached....since 1992, johnson (coach of gt) is 11-0 ats in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game in all games he has coached....the average score was johnson 32.7, opponent 21.0....
toledo-7(115)....
toledo is playing better ball against a tougher schedule....they can run & throw the ball....their qb is completing 62% of his passes with a 14/5 td/int ratio....their top back is averaging 6.5 ypr....w. mich. can't run the ball very effectively, their qb is completing 63% of his passes with an 8/6td/int ratio....w. mich. has won the last 2 times these teams played each other (2007 & 2008)....since 1992, toledo is 21-4 ats as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points....the average score was toledo 35.2, opponent 18.7....
good luck....
a few thoughts on some of my plays....
kentucky+12....
i think this line is very inflated because of the perception of both teams....however i don't think there is much difference between these 2 teams....from 2006-2008, uk's record in sec play is 9-15, while so.car's is 10-14....this year, uk has played both fla & bama & held both below their season average in passing....for the season uk is ranked #16th in the nation in pass defense....iin a game where points will be at a premium,'ll take the dog who played the tougher schedule....
conn.+10(125)....
this is another game where points will hard to get....i'll take the dog who runs the ball well & who allows 15 ppg & has the better defense by 110 ypg....in addition conn. is 7-3 ats coming off a bye....
purdue+4....
i have seen a few of minny's games & am not impressed with their style of football....they can't run the ball & if you are able to contain their star receiver, their offense doesn't seem to do much....on offense purdue can run & throw the ball well as they average 4.8 ypr on the ground & completes on average 61% of their passes....on defense minn. allows 63% completion rate....minn. averages 3.3 ypr & 62% completion rate...on defense purdue allows a completion rate of 58%....i think this is a field goal game if purdue can hold on to the ball....& i wouldn't be surprised if purdue wins this game su....
gt+3....
i know a few quality cappers taking fla. st because they feel that fsu will "circle the wagons" as a way of backing bowden against calls for bowden to step down....they may do that but i just think gt is a better team than fsu & better coached....since 1992, johnson (coach of gt) is 11-0 ats in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game in all games he has coached....the average score was johnson 32.7, opponent 21.0....
toledo-7(115)....
toledo is playing better ball against a tougher schedule....they can run & throw the ball....their qb is completing 62% of his passes with a 14/5 td/int ratio....their top back is averaging 6.5 ypr....w. mich. can't run the ball very effectively, their qb is completing 63% of his passes with an 8/6td/int ratio....w. mich. has won the last 2 times these teams played each other (2007 & 2008)....since 1992, toledo is 21-4 ats as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points....the average score was toledo 35.2, opponent 18.7....
good luck....
thanks guys....appreciate it....
i posted earlier this week that i am playing....
under 59(120) lt / nev....
last week nevada ran for over 500 yds, which is incredible....so i look for lou tech coach to slow this game down & give nevada as least possessions as possible....& because of this i think this is a lot of points to score for 2 teams that primarily run the ball....but then again i could be wrong...lol....
good luck....
i posted earlier this week that i am playing....
under 59(120) lt / nev....
last week nevada ran for over 500 yds, which is incredible....so i look for lou tech coach to slow this game down & give nevada as least possessions as possible....& because of this i think this is a lot of points to score for 2 teams that primarily run the ball....but then again i could be wrong...lol....
good luck....
Good write-up. And remember, TCU is 3-1 SU and ATS the last four meetings with Air Force. The one loss came on a short week following a tough loss to Texas. I've seen this line move from -11 to as low as -9.5. It seems to have settled at -10 now. I believe TCU covers, but I found out yesterday the weather is going to be cold, raining and possibly snowing.
TCU has played the last two weeks in the rain. They scored 14 against Clemson and 39 against SMU. So, keep take that into consideration when betting the O/U.
thanks guys....appreciate it....& thanks joe for your comments....
adding....
under 52 so. miss / lou....
both teams have injuries to key players on their offenses....so. miss.qb, davis (68% completion with a 8/1 td/int ratio) was hurt in their last game vs. uab & is now out for the season....their top running back, fletcher & top receiver brown are nursing injuries but expected back for this game....on the other side, lou. qb, burke did not play in their last game vs. pitt & is listed as questionable for this game....with league play upcoming, i think these star players will see limited action in this game & be ready for the upcoming important games....
play under - home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (lou.) - after 3 or more consecutive straight up losses, in october games....
over the last 10 seasons the ats record for this system is....47-17....73.4%....
the average total posted in these games was: 53.2....the average score in these games was: team 21.2, opponent 26.2....total points scored....47.4....
good luck....
adding....
under 52 so. miss / lou....
both teams have injuries to key players on their offenses....so. miss.qb, davis (68% completion with a 8/1 td/int ratio) was hurt in their last game vs. uab & is now out for the season....their top running back, fletcher & top receiver brown are nursing injuries but expected back for this game....on the other side, lou. qb, burke did not play in their last game vs. pitt & is listed as questionable for this game....with league play upcoming, i think these star players will see limited action in this game & be ready for the upcoming important games....
play under - home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (lou.) - after 3 or more consecutive straight up losses, in october games....
over the last 10 seasons the ats record for this system is....47-17....73.4%....
the average total posted in these games was: 53.2....the average score in these games was: team 21.2, opponent 26.2....total points scored....47.4....
good luck....
Al: I love Iowa. I like Purdue, GT and Ole Miss, but I doubt my money will be put on them.
GL Brother.
GL Brother.
AR.....your threads are always must-reads....tons of great information, trends, systems and reasoning behind your plays.
Continued success.
SPITS
Continued success.
SPITS
