Crunch away - WEEK 9

[Jimboski]

Lets continue this saga of the ole Number Crucher and see if it improves its ways. For those who haven't been following along - the Cruncher had a tremendous debut here at MJs when I stared posting it's picks iin week 4. Week 5 was very good as well. Then it just took a dump on us .. well,on ME.

Put plenty of work into it this week and backtested the formulas (spreadsheet stuff) that I'll be using this week. Every week adds data for it to use to refine it's picks, but for whatever reason it's been getting worser n worser. I tested each weeks formula and found that the crunchers it used in WEEK 4 AND the COMBINED formulas for week 5,6. and 7 work best. Each of these formulas/equations yielded around 65% (63 and 68 percent). So here's the deal for this week... . .

I employ each of these two (bestest) methods and only filter out the picks that BOTH rate a STRONG PLAY for this week

Withoug further ado ... here's the picks for today:

Nebraska - 12 (may need to buy a pt.): Cornhuskers started the season strong and proved they have the talent to get it done vs. better than Baylor. Best of all - it doesn't take a Bowl bidder to smack down the "Cubs", they stink. I think we can profit from the last week's Cornhusker shocker(actually their last two games) that gives us a pretty attractive line for today. Neb. had a bad case of turnoveritis at crucial times in the Iowa St. game and worst (luck) of all - it happened in or very close to the Red Zone. They could have scored easily more than once if those T/Os didn't happen at the worst possible times. STRONG pick today - I got em with the reduced line straight and also @ -13 in a parlay.

CAL -7: Erratic team looks to have their act together now and this team has big talent on both sides of the ball. One of my bigger plays was on Ariz. St. a couple of weeks ago and they were lfe and death vs. a so/so Wash team. I was really happy to see the "Sheet" finally find a STRONG PLAY against them and this is the week to get on that fade wagon IMO. Just look at who Cal has faced this year so far AND how State fared against weaker opponents.Those two games Cal faced vs. teams (USC, Ducks) that are far superior to either of these two were massacres, yes. But look how they fared against the rest and how State fared vs. ALL the teams they faced. As long as their ain't no Hail Mary's lightening strikes today by A.S. , I believe Cal can open up on them.

Air Force -6

Notre Dame -27: same reason everybody else likes them. But the main reason is "Cruncher sez so", real loud like too.

Louisville -3: They ain't what they useta be. Still a good playy, mainly cause they've been continually facing far tougher. Cards should have no trouble RUNNING all over and through the Wolves defense.

Ut OH.. ALL favorites. :scared

Well, it didn't help me any -but it did pick South Fla. If it's a dog that you're looking for. I can tellya that it rates an underdog as a "Regular Play" in an early game -> Syracuse +15. Good luck with that one.

 

[jer-z jock]

Jumbo GL with the ceuncher this week, but it doesn't always gave to spit winners out, I know we cap to win games but if the cruncher keeps picking losers or if u can filter the weekest plays maybe it can be helpful afterall as a fade finder. Just a suggestion, the main thing to do in capping is to be consistent, I wonder if u filtered thru and looked at the losses it has pushed out if there is any common factor thT could taken advantage of. As I said GL just giving another angle to it.

 

[Jimboski]

Nice suggestion

Nice suggestion

Thanks for the input, Jer Z.... hmm, if that stands for what I think it does - well, I grew up there :00hour

Opened up the Meadowlands first night of action and went to a lot of the Giant games; man, did they ever suck while I lived there.

Yeah, I've really been putting time in with the spreadsheet thing. Mostly worked on getting the dang thang to show me the most important factors based on the equations (and hence, ratings) it generates each week. Think I can continue to improve it, but one big problem with just working with nos. is all the intangibles - team trends, injuries, formations they use. The sheet DOES find strengths of each team though like special teams, runners, passers, offense/defense against each and stuff like that.

I'll follow your advice and look closer to where it went wrong instead of where it went right.

Man, that Nebraska game really sucked - close but no Cee Gar.

For me, I went heaviest on Nebraska but also went pretty heavy on Air Force. Looks like Notre Dame will decide how well or bad it did this week. Also got one live parlay going with only a Jets cover for tomorrow pending.

Been doing OK on my own with Overs/Unders (only a couple of plays each week) and not bad with second halfters for the game I'm watching. Gotta go check on Tenn and N.D. If I see something good, I'll post.

Thanks for stopping by J. Z.

 

[Jimboski]

Adding only ONE more

Adding only ONE more

There was a play rated quite highlyt by Crunchy that I had to take a closer look at. After I checked out, thoroughly, the opponents and how the offense/defense matches up for Sat's game - I agree with the Sheet and believe this one IS a play as well:

ADDING


UTAH -26 1/2 (@Carib): They haven't been putting up as many points as many people (like me, f'rinstance) expected but it stands to reason that a very well balanced defensive (only 163 yds. all season vs. the pass and that's really gonna help vs. the Lobos) team is NOT going to fail to cover for the third consecutive time AT HOME vs. a team that appears to have packed it in already for this year. Hell, UTES only lost to OREGON by a single score AWAY. Besides, the Cruncher has been consistantly picking both Mexicanos squads to cover almost every week, NOT this week. Just that is enough for me.

Reply with your thoughts or whatever and I'll be back.

Jer Z, I'm afraid the Crunchy will continue to pick losahs.

BUT, after the Overhaulin (ever watch that show? It's great!) and back testing. I do believe it's gotten back to it's senses and it'll be on more than enough winnahs, like it did on weeks 4 and 5, again this time around to make it all worthwhile. Just playem ALL. :s6:

Fire away, Jer..... .. .