college plays for 11/3-11/8....

[AR182]

thanks mc....

adding....

under 51 vt / e. car.....

should have a some kind of writeup tomorrow....


good luck....

 

[blaster]

LIKE THIS TOTAL AS WELL AR.
LET'S GET THIS!

GL, BLAST

 

[RAYMOND]

GL BIG AL:toast:

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....appreciate it....

some thoughts on tonights play....

under 51 vt / e. car....

vt is allowing about 19 ppg & 315 total ypg & are holding opposing quarterbacks below a 50 % completion rating with more interceptions than touchdown passes allowed.....

ecu allows about 22 ppg & 350 total ypg & have been tough against the run, allowing 3.4 ypc & have an impressive 21 takeaways for the year....

vt is 7-0 under when playing on a thursday over the last 3 seasons....the average score was vt 18.9, opponent 13.9....

beamer is 6-0 under after a loss by 3 or less points as the coach of vt....the average score was vt 25.8, opponent 17.2....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

adding....

pitt-20.5(120)....

i have tried not to play big favorites this year but feel this game has all of the makings of a woodshed beat down....

pitt is coming off a bye & i feel that they will not over look syracuse since they are tied with cin. for 1st place in the big east & need to keep pace.... syracuse is playing only their 2nd road game (1st was 9/12) of the season....

the syracuse offense is averaging just 312.6 ypg, with 20 turnovers on the season....& now has lost their best player when wide receiver williams quit the team....on defense they are allowing 363.1 total ypg of which 274.2 ypg is through the air & is allowing 64.5% of the opponenets passes to be completed....

pitt is very solid on offense as they are averaging 179.5 ypg on the ground & 219.9 ypg through the air....their qb, stull is completing 67.3% of his pass attempts, with 16/4 - td/int ratio....their o-line has allowed only 7 sacks on the year....on defense pitt has also been solid this season allowing 18 ppg & 314.1 total ypg....they have been especially tough against the run, allowing only 2.9 ypc to opponents & they also have 33 sacks....the pitt d-line should dominate the inexperienced syr o-line....

syracuse is 2-7 ats as conference dogs of 15 points or more....

syracuse is 1-8 ats vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.....the average score was syr. 17.8, opponent 40.2....

play on - favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (pitt) - with 8 offensive starters returning....

over the last 10 seasons the ats record for this system is....81-42....65.9%....

the average line posted in these games was.... team favored by 25.5....the average score in these games was....team 42.2, opponent 12.1....


good luck....

 

[joefrog91]

thanks guys....appreciate it....

some thoughts on tonights play....

under 51 vt / e. car....

vt is allowing about 19 ppg & 315 total ypg & are holding opposing quarterbacks below a 50 % completion rating with more interceptions than touchdown passes allowed.....

ecu allows about 22 ppg & 350 total ypg & have been tough against the run, allowing 3.4 ypc & have an impressive 21 takeaways for the year....

vt is 7-0 under when playing on a thursday over the last 3 seasons....the average score was vt 18.9, opponent 13.9....

beamer is 6-0 under after a loss by 3 or less points as the coach of vt....the average score was vt 25.8, opponent 17.2....


good luck....

I'll follow you on this one. Under it is. :mj06:

 

[mw]

under 51 vt / e. car....

Nice winner.

 

[AR182]

thanks mw....

adding a few totals....


under 56(130) wisc / indiana....

i have capped this game between 45.9-51.5....


under 66(120) troy/ w. kentucky....

play under - all teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (w.kentucky) - after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game, game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning....

over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....25-4....86.2%

the average total posted in these games was....66.7....the average score in these games was....team 34.1, opponent 23.3....

over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....6-0....100%....


under 61(120) utah st / hawaii....

play under - all teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (both teams apply) - in a game involving two good passing teams (7.5-8.3 pya) after 7+ games....

over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....42-8....84%....

the average total posted in these games was....59.8....the average score in these games was.... team 26.2, opponent 26.2....

the system's record this season is....2-0....100%....


under 60(120) wash. st / arizona....

play under - all teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (wash.st.) - slow starting team - outscored by 7+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games....

over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....63-27....70%....

the average total posted in these games was....59.3....the average score in these games was.... team 21.1, opponent 31.9....


under 57 maryland / nc st....

play under - any team against the total (maryland) - turnover prone team (2.5+ to/g committed) vs a team with <=1.25 to/g forced after 8+ games....

over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....26-6....81.2%....

the average total posted in these games was....56.7....the average score in these games was.... team 23.4, opponent 28....


good luck....

 

[IX_Bender]

AR, are you adjusting the plays that you make based on whats winning? Meaning, are you trying to play more totals than sides as the year goes on because the % win is higher for you this year?

Just wondering, and having a hard time remembering you playing this many unders or totals in general. Seems that I can almost remember years ago where you were winning sides and losing totals and said that you would stop playing so many of those. Could be wrong on that though, so many posters and plays over so many seasons.

Good call on that easy under winner last night and BOL this weekend.

 

[AR182]

AR, are you adjusting the plays that you make based on whats winning? Meaning, are you trying to play more totals than sides as the year goes on because the % win is higher for you this year?

Just wondering, and having a hard time remembering you playing this many unders or totals in general. Seems that I can almost remember years ago where you were winning sides and losing totals and said that you would stop playing so many of those. Could be wrong on that though, so many posters and plays over so many seasons.

Good call on that easy under winner last night and BOL this weekend.

man, bender you have a great memory....a few weeks ago when i discovered how well i was doing in totals i did indeed start looking to play totals more & more....

i also tinkered a little during the offseason on the totals & it has so far paid off....& during this offseason i will tinker with how i pick sides & look paticularly at why i picked roughly 61% a few years ago & now i can't even pick 50% on sides....

gambling can be an interesting hobby if you don't let emotion come into play....

thanks for your comments bender....i appreciate it....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

adding....

under 59(130) fla.st. / clemson....

play under - all teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (clemson) - after a win by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game....

since 1992 the record for this system is....28-8....77.8%....

the average total posted in these games was....59.6....the average score in these games was.... team 30.2, opponent 20.8....

over the last 5 seasons the system's record is....12-2....85.7%....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

1-0 for the week & here's a list of who i have played so far for saturday....

unlv+3(130)....
nw+17(120)....
kansas st+3(120)....
under 53 ill / minn....
under 43 okla / neb....
under 41(130) ohio st / penn st....
under 63(130) oregon st / calif....
under 49(130) laf / ark. st....
under 47(130) usc / az. st....
pitt-20.5(120)....
under 56(130) wisc / indiana....
under 66(120) troy/ w. kentucky....
under 61(120) utah st / hawaii....
under 60(120) wash. st / arizona....
under 57 maryland / nc st....
under 59(130) fla.st. / clemson....


good luck....

 

[mdc144]

Love your picks and quietly check your plays each week. But I must say...I can't keep my eyes off your avatar!!

Thanks for posting!!

Any interest in the Boise game? I capped over, but can't get off the fence.

 

[AR182]

hey mdc....

have no opinion on tonights game & love sweet jennifer also....


thanks for your comments....

 

[el JB]

hey Al

hey Al

i thank you in advance for that UNDER in PSU/OSU game as i like tha PSU Def to take care of business and win it so i'll parlay PSU and UNDER for a cool 500 to get 1300
best of luck to us mate:toast:

 

[gardenweasel]

chappy?..... .....i like the n.w. logic...i think i may tease it with penn st(not impressed with ohio st this year).....

this way if p.st blows,i lose money,but i can always bust scotty`s balls....

continued success,ar...

 

[tulah]

GL this week AR :toast:

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....appreciate it....

adding 2 sides....

byu-13....

i usually get burned laying dd chalk on the road but thought that i would give it another shot....

byu is coming off a bye week where they regrouped after losing big again to tcu 2 weeks ago....but from what i have read, unlike last year byu swears that they will not dwell on the tcu loss this year & have stated that they will come out focused for this game....wyoming seems like the type of team in which byu can get the bad taste out of their mouth since wyoming has averaged 188 total yards per game (air force & utah) for the last 2 games & for the year they complete about 53% of their passes & run for 35 ypc....on the other side of the ball, wyoming hasn't faced a diversified offense like byu (texas is more 1 dimensional) as byu has a top 20 passing attack & a rushing attack that averages 157 ypg on the ground....imo this has the makings of a woodshed beating....


virginia+14(120)....

eventhough miami was outgained 555-356, they made a huge comeback last week against wake & this week they will be without 3 defensive starters again....so i think miami will be a little flat for this weeks game....

under randy shannon, miami hasn't done well as a conference favorite as they are 3-12 (20%) ats, including 0-4 ats as a favorite of more than 6 points....virginia is 5-1-2 ats as a dd conference road dog....

here's a list of who i have played so far for saturday....

unlv+3(130)....
nw+17(120)....
kansas st+3(120)....
under 53 ill / minn....
under 43 okla / neb....
under 41(130) ohio st / penn st....
under 63(130) oregon st / calif....
under 49(130) laf / ark. st....
under 47(130) usc / az. st....
pitt-20.5(120)....
under 56(130) wisc / indiana....
under 66(120) troy/ w. kentucky....
under 61(120) utah st / hawaii....
under 60(120) wash. st / arizona....
under 57 maryland / nc st....
under 59(130) fla.st. / clemson....
byu-13....
virginia+14(120)....


good luck....

 

[djv]

Slowen down? just kidding GL :00hour

 

[joefrog91]

BYU -13 is a good side to take. I even like the over 48 in this game. I see a score like 35 - 14 in this game.

Clemson -9
TCU -24.5

TCU is looking like a team on a mission the last three games. It may be a homer pick, but so was last week and that hit big for me.

Good luck.