NBA WED 111809 early thoughts - value hunting

[easterntimezone]

Now this same GS team has just as many points against BOS tonight. We - and Vegas - all know how the public has such short term memory. They will love all these points tonight - but I like BOS intense nature to look after this patch-work team that is only dressing 7 players at the moment I think..................1st Q or half number will be interesting.

Back when Isiah was coaching the Knicks, he took that team into Boston and IIRC the line was around 25 in favor of the Celts, who won handily and started the death knell march for Thomas as head coach of the Knicks; the Cavs have no bench to sustain a durable lead as demonstrated last year, an issue that persists this season as well so the 14.5 last night really didn't have a firm leg to stand on.

A 7 man team that still harbors contentious matters b/w Ellis and Nelson? Space cadet Radmonovich in tandem w/ young and looking-for-direction-but-unable-to-find-it personnel in Morrow, Curry, and Randolph? One site checked has 82% on the Warriors at + 16.5 - have got to be kidding, right? Expect the Celts roll - and, again, nothing for what ails one more than than facing a Don Nelson-"led" Golden State team on the road.

 

[easterntimezone]

I have decided that I am not playing 4,5,6 plays a day when I do to much ShXX breaks loose, i may not always win my top two plays, but it seems that if i worked it down to 2, I do better ALOT and the last three weekends of CFB have been brutal.

40S -

That's been my personal preference - easier to focus on 2 games or less distilled from a full board. Learned the hard way, but better for it in the long run...

 

[doccjc]

Charlotte totals have been low all year,, horrible offense.... One thing to watch going forward is the addition of Jackson and the books totals for Charlotte... There may some opportunity on that Over if they keep it low or under is they put up a high number ,,,, I know the Warriors were a run and gun team,,,but jackson does bring a spark to that Charlotte team....How much? to be determined,,,,

today,,charlotte opening at 181,,and up to 186.... may be some value on the under?,,,,People hammering the over?? Not sure Jackson brings that much offense to warrant a 5 point swing..:shrug:

 

[easterntimezone]

63% taking the pts so far in this one

Game scares me some - expect that the Magic will experience a drop off in the next 4-6 weeks that Nelson will be laid up, but for one game, can Johnson and Williams marshall the motivation and drive to be a 2-headed monster from the point?

a) Nelson out.
b) Magic not as fluid as last year - Lewis back, but misfired (from 3) badly in his return.
c) Vince is a supporting cast member (as per his preference).
d) Hacking Howard isn't out of the question as his free-throw shooting is beginning to show regression to the mean.
e) Thunder an up-and-coming unit, besting both San Antonio and Miami in their respective arenas.

Yet, something still doesn't sit right - Westbrook is a shooting guard who tries and may eventually succeed to become a premier point. The team can forget about Durant at times, evident during the 4th quarter in their loss to the Clippers.

Unsure as to if a set-up has been stealthily arranged or the + 11.5 for the Thunder is an early gift

 

[axp59]

I know it your homer Ax but you have to have some opinion on this one we can use.

I can't do it Gunny, I'll have a play of course but won't post for obvious reasons. I think you have all you need. Chump has a good read on this game but at his number. Be very careful to pick your spot. BOL Guns

 

[axp59]

Good luck.... and see ya at HT~!:SIB

Seriously some good stuff here.

 

[Truckin']

Game scares me some - expect that the Magic will experience a drop off in the next 4-6 weeks that Nelson will be laid up, but for one game, can Johnson and Williams marshall the motivation and drive to be a 2-headed monster from the point?

a) Nelson out.
b) Magic not as fluid as last year - Lewis back, but misfired (from 3) badly in his return.
c) Vince is a supporting cast member (as per his preference).
d) Hacking Howard isn't out of the question as his free-throw shooting is beginning to show regression to the mean.
e) Thunder an up-and-coming unit, besting both San Antonio and Miami in their respective arenas.

Yet, something still doesn't sit right - Westbrook is a shooting guard who tries and may eventually succeed to become a premier point. The team can forget about Durant at times, evident during the 4th quarter in their loss to the Clippers.

Unsure as to if a set-up has been stealthily arranged or the + 11.5 for the Thunder is an early gift

yep That is where I am at on this game. I can't even make a comment, theres just no explanation why this line opened at 10.5 to begin with and now its at 12.5

staying away :toast:

 

[CoFred]

Cavs/Wizards Under

Cavs/Wizards Under

Hey everyone. I'm looking at taking this U 196.5. The Cavs are the best 3pt shooting team in the league and their games have been pretty high scoring lately. I figured this would be around 200 or so. But opening around 194-195. I think this is an U play. What do you guys think.

 

[Randercity]

BUT...

BUT...

This was one of my initial leans, I then capped the game at 182. The one thing that really makes me like this under, is the fact that the Bobs can really struggle to score points on the road. In 3 out of thier 5 road games, they've failed to score 80 :scared In those 3, they svg a whopping total of 71. Philly is no Lockdown "D" but I see Charlotte scoring in the low 80's at best. I see an 85-82 type game. :director:

That was all PRE-JACKSON trade.... I would wait and see how CHAR does with JAX joining Wallace. In the first game as a BOBCAT, JAX went for 13 pts with 9 boards in 45 minutes, he shot poorly but the team hit 50% of their shots in scoring 91 points.

PHIL wants to run, they want to use their small lineup and there is no reason with the current Bobcat lineup that they don't start running as well. You have two big men who run the floor as good as any in Chandler/Diaw, you have Wallace and Jackson, Felton, and when DJ comes in, he's as quick as anybody almost. I know Larry Brown still coaches this team, but if he's half as good as his resume, he should make this team run, not set up half court. If he wanted to play that way, he should have kept Okafor.

PHIL averages 97 pts a game and give up 102... that's 199 folks, and I see this game being played at THEIR pace in THEIR building, not the low scoring pace CHAR started the season with....

I'm adding this one...

SIXERS OVER 185.5 ** DOUBLE PLAY **

:SIB

 

[40seven]

Ax

Ax

" Nothing locked but I'll have some action for entertainment purposes only"

What does this mean and when will you start playing full units?

 

[peteyboy]

Fwiw, Marion is doubtful for tonights tilt against the spurs...

 

[odoggx21]

hey ax, i never knew that you were a veteran, i too am a veteran, what branch of service are you. Also lets make that paper brother

 

[axp59]

" Nothing locked but I'll have some action for entertainment purposes only"

What does this mean and when will you start playing full units?

you must've missed my other post forty. action play till thanksgiving and I'm sticking to that. full 1U plays mon Nov 30. entertainment purposes means I'm amusing myself with action.

 

[axp59]

hey ax, i never knew that you were a veteran, i too am a veteran, what branch of service are you. Also lets make that paper brother

I'm with the branch that raised the flag on Iwo Jima

 

[odoggx21]

gotcha didnt notice jarhead underneath your name - ARMY 4 Lyfe

 

[40seven]

ax

ax

you must've missed my other post forty. action play till thanksgiving and I'm sticking to that. full 1U plays mon Nov 30. entertainment purposes means I'm amusing myself with action.

Thanks

 

[BillyBatts]

That was all PRE-JACKSON trade.... I would wait and see how CHAR does with JAX joining Wallace. In the first game as a BOBCAT, JAX went for 13 pts with 9 boards in 45 minutes, he shot poorly but the team hit 50% of their shots in scoring 91 points.

PHIL wants to run, they want to use their small lineup and there is no reason with the current Bobcat lineup that they don't start running as well. You have two big men who run the floor as good as any in Chandler/Diaw, you have Wallace and Jackson, Felton, and when DJ comes in, he's as quick as anybody almost. I know Larry Brown still coaches this team, but if he's half as good as his resume, he should make this team run, not set up half court. If he wanted to play that way, he should have kept Okafor.

PHIL averages 97 pts a game and give up 102... that's 199 folks, and I see this game being played at THEIR pace in THEIR building, not the low scoring pace CHAR started the season with....

I'm adding this one...

SIXERS OVER 185.5 ** DOUBLE PLAY **

:SIB

Yes, I agree that usually the home team dictates pace, but that isn't going to make either of these teams shoot better. And yes, SJack may be an offensive upgrade, but let's not confuse him with a true superstar, PLUS the fact that it will probably take a little time for him to gel with his team, which could keep their scoring down. Good luck with your play, but you may want to take your own advice and wait and see how the Bobs do with this new lineup.

Also still looking at the Rockets-Twolves under. Can ANYONE please que how teams are doing on the 2nd night of a B2B after playing the Suns??

OKC is seeming like a trap for me now as well.
And I do like that Boston under, but they may score 130 on thier own. I feel like giving the high number and taking the Celts now. :shrug:

 

[softballmaniac]

Unfortunately i'm on my way out the door for a committment. Wont be back til 7:30 ECT. A favor to ask in this thread. Anyone that txt via cell, i would love to hear from you with some final plays. Hope i didn't step out of bounds with this request. The favor will most certainley be returned if someone else was away from the computer and needed assistance. 908 358-6082. If this was against the rules, i apologize in advance. Good luck to all tonight. :toast:

 

[Randercity]

For the record...

For the record...

I don't post in here that often, in fact, of my 162 NBA plays so far, only 13 have been NON HT, and my record in those is:

8-5 +4.30 Units 61%

BUT I do come in and read this forum most days. I consider it "must" reading when I can, because it's like cramming for an exam.... I try to fill my head with as much info as I can in regards to a game, I put notes on my line sheet schedule to look at later, and I make sure I "KNOW" what side the great cappers are on for the game before making my plays at HT. IF I know the "pros" in here are on WASH for instance, and I didn't play it, well if the game ends up with CLEV leading by 10 at HT, and I see value in WASH, well, I might bump my play up if I can now get +7 or +8 for the game on WASH by playing them at HT at -2. It's a way of playing the "hot" capped game, but getting an extra basket or two. I mean, the game didn't change.... if you liked WASH at +4.5 before tip off, and if there was no injuries or unexpected play, or foul trouble :nono: for a key player, why would you NOT like the same WASH team at +8??? :shrug:

Hope this helps some of you out there, because I think we sometimes read too much into a bad half. If we have capped a game, and expected a certain result, we can't fall into the trap of seeing a bad start as meaning a bad finish. Granted there are times when a team is just off and nothing is going to change that. However, if we felt a said game was going down to the wire and fall within a couple of points, then we need to JUMP on that value when we get it at the half!! Don't be afraid to jump in the ring :box2: and throw a knockout when the man gives you the opening!

Good luck to all tonight! :SIB

 

[barts185]

Also still looking at the Rockets-Twolves under. Can ANYONE please que how teams are doing on the 2nd night of a B2B after playing the Suns??

2nd half of back-to-back after playing the suns
po:team=Suns and rest=0 and season

ATS OU SU season
2-2-0 (-3.4) 0-4-0 (-17.5) 2-2 (-3.75) 2009
8-9-0 (-0.1) 7-10-0 (-1.9) 7-10 (-2.59) 2008
7-8-0 (-0.9) 6-8-1 (-4.3) 5-10 (-4.73) 2007
12-7-0 (3.1) 10-9-0 (-7.8) 10-9 (-1.42) 2006
4-12-0 (-3.1) 6-9-1 (-6.2) 6-10 (-3.38) 2005
10-8-1 (0.6) 10-9-0 (3.2) 9-10 (-0.32) 2004
6-9-2 (-4.1) 9-8-0 (0.4) 7-10 (-3.65) 2003
13-8-1 (1.3) 11-11-0 (1.2) 12-10 (2.64) 2002
6-11-1 (-0.8) 7-10-1 (-2.7) 6-12 (-2.28) 2001
8-4-0 (3.0) 7-4-1 (5.7) 6-6 (2.58) 2000
8-10-0 (-0.4) 9-8-1 (3.7) 7-11 (-1.11) 1999
10-11-0 (0.1) 11-10-0 (-0.2) 8-13 (-1.05) 1998
12-10-1 (4.0) 12-11-0 (2.0) 12-11 (3.43) 1997
14-3-0 (5.6) 9-8-0 (3.1) 10-7 (3.35) 1996
10-9-1 (-0.1) 12-8-0 (5.9) 8-12 (-0.35) 1995

since 2007 (trying to keep it recent)

SU: 14-22 (-3.6)
ATS: 17-19-0 (-0.8) avg line: 2.8
O/U: 13-22-1 (-4.6) avg total: 205.1