This is what I considered in helping to make these picks...Stats, momentum, and the line. I don't follow trends so they are not figured in...I'm sure I could come up with some trends for each side which is why I don't think they hold much weight.
The stats used were:
Defensive front rankings (from another website)
3rd down defense
negative pass plays
defensive yds given up per carry
3rd down conversion rate
yds per completion
yds per carry
special teams
better kicker
After all that here is what I came up with.
New York Jets +2.5 and ML:
In my opinion there is no reason that Cincy shouldn't be given at least 3 points at home. I know the Nyj just ripped their tits off but if your looking at that as a basis for your pick you need to think again. Cincy was clearly not into that game and could care less about winning or losing. The problem I have is that Vegas is smarter than that and knows some people will over react to it. In my opinion it looks like a trap line. Cincy just got embarrassed on national television, they are a team that has been looking for respect all year and now they're playing at home and aren't even favored by a FG??? They should be out for revenge after getting embarrassed shouldn't they? I mean, supposedly home teams are always awarded 3 points just for being at home...right? I know some people will say the line is 2.5 because they just got beat by 30 some and the line is put there because "the public" will over react to that one game but if Vegas thinks the public will over react then why not give the Jets at least 3 points and get even more money coming in on them and clean up??? I think this line is asking for Cincy money.
Some might say how does the line favor the NYJ if they aren't even getting a FG but I like to go against the grain sometimes and believe that the worst line is the best line...my opinion...advantage Jets (I know that might sound idiotic to some but some people will understand what I mean...think about what Billy Blastoff's system is about. Kind of the same thing...
Statistically the Nyj are better in almost every aspect that I listed above. They are better in 3rd down defense, neg pass plays, against the run, believe it or not yards per completion, yards per rush, better special teams, and a better kicker percentage wise (made a higher percentage of FG's). The only stat Cincy was better in was 3rd down conversions....
advantage...NYJ
When it comes to momentum I believe the Jets have it...they are 5-3 in their last 8 games and won the last 2 which they needed to do to get to the playoffs. I know Indy laid down and so did Cincy but I like how the Jets kept playing hard even though the games became out of reach in the last 2 games...Its one thing to know the game is won but its another to keep playing hard and keep pounding the opposition...I feel that the Jets have a lot of confidence right now and they kind of remind me of the Ravens last year and the Steelers in Roethlisberger's rookie year...They will ask Sanchez to just do enough to not lose the game...they won't ask him to win the game.
Momentum....advantage Jets
Dallas Cowboys -3.5:
This is a tough game...Both teams are very talented and on top of that you add in that Dallas has beaten the Eagles twice already this year. Everyone knows its SOOOOOO difficult to beat a team 3 times in one year, right??? Not so fast...
Over the past 18 times this has happened the team that won the first 2 meetings has won the third meeting 11 times (61% of the time). So this got me thinking...Public perception is that its hard to beat a team 3 times in one season, the eagles have revenge, they not only lost 2 times to them this year but they got embarrassed and shut out in the last meeting which was last week and the public (percentage wise) was all over the Eagles... So why the hell would Dallas be giving over a FG to them? Why would Vegas set the line over that all important number of 3??? Again I believe its to get more money on the Eagles...Again I believe that Vegas doesn't give money away and again I believe dallas is the right side.
Line advantage....Dallas (remember, the best looking line isn't always the best line)
Statistically this game is much closer than the Cin/NYJ game...at least based off of the stats that I keyed in on...Dallas is better at 3rd down conversions, against the run, yards per completions, and yards per carry. Philly is better at 3rd down defense, neg pass plays, special teams and kicker.
Advantage...push
The reason I like Dallas over Philly is because I believe they have a lot more momentum...Philly is coming into this game after just getting dominated by Dallas and losing their last 2 games. Remember, this game was different than the Cincy/NYj game and the GB/AZ game...Philly had a lot to play for and just didn't show up...they had a bye week and the 2nd seed they could of clinched with a win here....Now they have to fly back to philly to prepare and go back to the place they just got their ass kicked...Dallas on the other hand won their last 3 games and is coming off of 2 shutouts in a row with one of those wins coming against an undefeated team on the road with a great offense, a great home field advantage,and on Saturday night in the spot light. I think Dallas has found their "swagger" and is full of confidence and is ready to put all the naysayers to bed that they can't win a playoff game and Romo is a choker. They already shut everyone up that they couldn't win in December. Now I see them doing the same that they can't win in the playoffs.
Momentum...advantage Dallas
We will see what happens...Either way good luck with your picks!
The stats used were:
Defensive front rankings (from another website)
3rd down defense
negative pass plays
defensive yds given up per carry
3rd down conversion rate
yds per completion
yds per carry
special teams
better kicker
After all that here is what I came up with.
New York Jets +2.5 and ML:
In my opinion there is no reason that Cincy shouldn't be given at least 3 points at home. I know the Nyj just ripped their tits off but if your looking at that as a basis for your pick you need to think again. Cincy was clearly not into that game and could care less about winning or losing. The problem I have is that Vegas is smarter than that and knows some people will over react to it. In my opinion it looks like a trap line. Cincy just got embarrassed on national television, they are a team that has been looking for respect all year and now they're playing at home and aren't even favored by a FG??? They should be out for revenge after getting embarrassed shouldn't they? I mean, supposedly home teams are always awarded 3 points just for being at home...right? I know some people will say the line is 2.5 because they just got beat by 30 some and the line is put there because "the public" will over react to that one game but if Vegas thinks the public will over react then why not give the Jets at least 3 points and get even more money coming in on them and clean up??? I think this line is asking for Cincy money.
Some might say how does the line favor the NYJ if they aren't even getting a FG but I like to go against the grain sometimes and believe that the worst line is the best line...my opinion...advantage Jets (I know that might sound idiotic to some but some people will understand what I mean...think about what Billy Blastoff's system is about. Kind of the same thing...
Statistically the Nyj are better in almost every aspect that I listed above. They are better in 3rd down defense, neg pass plays, against the run, believe it or not yards per completion, yards per rush, better special teams, and a better kicker percentage wise (made a higher percentage of FG's). The only stat Cincy was better in was 3rd down conversions....
advantage...NYJ
When it comes to momentum I believe the Jets have it...they are 5-3 in their last 8 games and won the last 2 which they needed to do to get to the playoffs. I know Indy laid down and so did Cincy but I like how the Jets kept playing hard even though the games became out of reach in the last 2 games...Its one thing to know the game is won but its another to keep playing hard and keep pounding the opposition...I feel that the Jets have a lot of confidence right now and they kind of remind me of the Ravens last year and the Steelers in Roethlisberger's rookie year...They will ask Sanchez to just do enough to not lose the game...they won't ask him to win the game.
Momentum....advantage Jets
Dallas Cowboys -3.5:
This is a tough game...Both teams are very talented and on top of that you add in that Dallas has beaten the Eagles twice already this year. Everyone knows its SOOOOOO difficult to beat a team 3 times in one year, right??? Not so fast...
Over the past 18 times this has happened the team that won the first 2 meetings has won the third meeting 11 times (61% of the time). So this got me thinking...Public perception is that its hard to beat a team 3 times in one season, the eagles have revenge, they not only lost 2 times to them this year but they got embarrassed and shut out in the last meeting which was last week and the public (percentage wise) was all over the Eagles... So why the hell would Dallas be giving over a FG to them? Why would Vegas set the line over that all important number of 3??? Again I believe its to get more money on the Eagles...Again I believe that Vegas doesn't give money away and again I believe dallas is the right side.
Line advantage....Dallas (remember, the best looking line isn't always the best line)
Statistically this game is much closer than the Cin/NYJ game...at least based off of the stats that I keyed in on...Dallas is better at 3rd down conversions, against the run, yards per completions, and yards per carry. Philly is better at 3rd down defense, neg pass plays, special teams and kicker.
Advantage...push
The reason I like Dallas over Philly is because I believe they have a lot more momentum...Philly is coming into this game after just getting dominated by Dallas and losing their last 2 games. Remember, this game was different than the Cincy/NYj game and the GB/AZ game...Philly had a lot to play for and just didn't show up...they had a bye week and the 2nd seed they could of clinched with a win here....Now they have to fly back to philly to prepare and go back to the place they just got their ass kicked...Dallas on the other hand won their last 3 games and is coming off of 2 shutouts in a row with one of those wins coming against an undefeated team on the road with a great offense, a great home field advantage,and on Saturday night in the spot light. I think Dallas has found their "swagger" and is full of confidence and is ready to put all the naysayers to bed that they can't win a playoff game and Romo is a choker. They already shut everyone up that they couldn't win in December. Now I see them doing the same that they can't win in the playoffs.
Momentum...advantage Dallas
We will see what happens...Either way good luck with your picks!
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