here is some info on divisional play that i thought some might find useful....
In the last 14 Divisional Round games have seen visiting clubs go 9-5 SU & 12-2 ATS....Pitts.( vs SD) last January, and Green Bay (over Seattle) in 2007 are the only exceptions of home teams that have both won and covered their games....To consider how big of a change this is, from 1995-2001,home teams in the Divisional Round owned a record of 22-6 SU & 17-10-1ATS....If you go back much further, to 1993, you?d see that road teams own only a slight 34-32-2 ATS edge though. That means that recent developments have differed from the norm.
The extra day of rest has proven a hindrance for home teams when it comes to divisional performance, as Saturday home teams are 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS since 2005 while Sunday hosts have gone just 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS.
In general, the Divisional Round has been a low-scoring round,with the UNDER on the total going 11-6-1 in the last 18, producing 42.0 points per game on totals averaging 43.6.
In the recent 14-game stretch of dominance by road teams in the Divisional Round, the nine road outright wins have been accompanied by seven UNDERS on the total,while the five home team wins have gone OVER the total at a 4-0-1 rate. In otherwords, correlated parlays should read ROAD-UNDER or HOME-OVER.
There have only been 11 inter-divisional games in this round over the last 17 years,with home teams owning a 7-4 SU and 5-5-1 ATS record in that span.These have been lower-scoring games,with seven of the 11 going UNDER the total.
Lines in the DivisionalRound have been chalk-heavy,with the average favorite laying 7.1 points since 1993. Furthermore, 35 of the 68 games have had a line of a touchdown or more and only once has there been a home underdog in that span.
Take a look at these other line specific trends....
Sizeable home favorites have not been a solid bet in the Divisional Round of late, as those laying a td or more (7 points) are just 6-5 SU and 3-8 ATS (27%) since 2004, including three straight outright losses....
There have been four double-digit favorites in the last four years of theDivisional Round of the NFL playoffs....Those teams are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS....
In Divisional Round games where the final points spread closed at five points or fewer, the road team has been nearly automatic, going 8-7 SU and 11-3-1ATS (79 %) since 1998. The UNDER is also 11-4 in those games....
Bettors haven?t had nearly the success dealing with the opening lines in Divisional Playoff games as they did in the Wild-CardRound. In fact,when betting action has moved the line one way or the other since 1993 in the Divisional Round, this
?smartmoney? is just 24-29 ATS 45%). What?s more, in 40 of the 54 games, bettors sided with
the host team....
The line movement numbers get downright ugly for bettors when you only consider recent years. Over the last six playoff years, line moves have only shown a 5-15ATS (25%) record. In otherwords, you'd have been much better off fading the linemove.
Interestingly, in the Divisional Round playoff games since 2005, seven games have seen the opening linemove by 1.5 points or more throughout the week. In those games, bettors have been wrong on the linemove EVERYTIME (0-7ATS).
Similarly to the Wild-Card Round, extreme totals in Divisional Playoff games have produced mostly OVER games,while the moderately posted totals by oddsmakers have meant lower-scoring games. Dating back to 1999, in games with totals posted at either less than 38 or more than 48, OVER the total is 14-6-1 (70%). In games inside that range, the UNDER has been the way to go, 16-6 (73%).
The betting public has had a very good handle on totals in theDivisional Round, as since 1993, when incoming action has moved the total higher, OVER players have gone 14-8 (64%)....When the total has been pushed lower throughout the week, UNDER bettors have gone 22-16 (58%). Combined, following the total move has netted a 60% chance of winning.
good luck....
UNDER
