The old 17 point theory

C

Clem D

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:0corn Simple theory I used to track is hot out of the gates. Play against any team that won by 17 or mor points the previous week. And play on any team that got beat by 17 or more. Basically figured oddsmakers would overreact or bettors would overreact making lines tasty. ALso players tend to be flat after an easy win, while the other end the team that got smoked gets a tough week of practice and is fired up to avoid another embarrassment.

So far. week 2Teams to Fade were the Titans. who lost outright to the Steelers as 5 poiny favorites.

Seahags getting 3 from Denver got smoked.

So 2-0 on that trend

The teams who got beat by 17 + in week 1
were the Raiders who did not cover against the Rams And
Thje 49ers who did cover against the Saints.
So 1-1 on that

This week The plays would be
The Giants -3 over the Titans. AFter getting smoked on National tv playing A titan team who got battered by the physical Steelers. This looks like a nice play. 3 units. given iut

The Cards at Home After getting dusted should get off the matt against The Raiders who should still be a year away from winning this kind of game on the road. -4 3 units given out

Bills+13 would be a play against the Pats who may come out flat but no way I toch this game bills are bads and Pats almost qualify themselves. i will track the game but no play.

Jags +3 Home dog after getting doors blown off will track but I'm on the other way. Del Rio lost this team last year. Think he is a trainwreck. Worst prepared Qb in the league. Eagles better at Wr, should have a big day.

Played against the trend here Eagles +3 2 units given out tuesday.

Fading the teams that won by 17 +

So the plays would be Denver +5 over Colts
No play but tracking

Falcons +6 over Saints. Want 7 or more waiting.
Bears +3 Live home Dog. No play yet
Seahawks +5.5 could be live dawg watching the board. Chargers underachieve on the road.


The ones posted will go against my record which I will track in another thread tomorrow or Saturday.

I will try to track this thread all year feel free to contributer especially if I don't get to it. :toast:
 
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imawinner21

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wouldnt you be fading atlanta since then blew out az?and i remember a system 2-3 yrs back but its was 28 pts
 
Cie

Cie

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Clem D said:
:0corn Simple theory I used to track is hot out of the gates. Play against any team that won by 17 or mor points the previous week. And play on any team that got beat by 17 or more. Basically figured oddsmakers would overreact or bettors would overreact making lines tasty. ALso players tend to be flat after an easy win, while the other end the team that got smoked gets a tough week of practice and is fired up to avoid another embarrassment.

So far. week 2Teams to Fade were the Titans. who lost outright to the Steelers as 5 poiny favorites.

Seahags getting 3 from Denver got smoked.

So 2-0 on that trend

The teams who got beat by 17 + in week 1
were the Raiders who did not cover against the Rams And
Thje 49ers who did cover against the Saints.
So 1-1 on that

This week The plays would be
The Giants -3 over the Titans. AFter getting smoked on National tv playing A titan team who got battered by the physical Steelers. This looks like a nice play. 3 units. given iut

The Cards at Home After getting dusted should get off the matt against The Raiders who should still be a year away from winning this kind of game on the road. -4 3 units given out

Bills+13 would be a play against the Pats who may come out flat but no way I toch this game bills are bads and Pats almost qualify themselves. i will track the game but no play.

Jags +3 Home dog after getting doors blown off will track but I'm on the other way. Del Rio lost this team last year. Think he is a trainwreck. Worst prepared Qb in the league. Eagles better at Wr, should have a big day.

Played against the trend here Eagles +3 2 units given out tuesday.

Fading the teams that won by 17 +

So the plays would be Denver +5 over Colts
No play but tracking

Falcons +6 over Saints. Want 7 or more waiting.
Bears +3 Live home Dog. No play yet
Seahawks +5.5 could be live dawg watching the board. Chargers underachieve on the road.


The ones posted will go against my record which I will track in another thread tomorrow or Saturday.

I will try to track this thread all year feel free to contributer especially if I don't get to it. :toast:
Click to expand...


Your ATL lean is anti-trend.
 
- FT -

- FT -

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FYI...

Ran this through my database...nothing impressive.

Since 1992-93 Season:

Team Loses by 17 or more ---> Play them ATS next game: 503-466 ATS

Team Wins by 17 or more ---> Fade them ATS next game: 524-500 ATS
 
C

Clem D

Mad Pisser
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Thanks Ft

Can you narrow it Down further to home teams coming off the 17 + point loss.

And road team off the big win?

Thanks for the help if you can
 
- FT -

- FT -

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Sure Clem D:

Home Team Loses by 17 or more ---> Play them ATS next game: 179-174 ATS

Road Team Wins by 17 or more ---> Fade them ATS next game: 178-169 ATS
 
C

Clem D

Mad Pisser
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Excellent work FT. When i started tracking it It always seemed good in the beginning. When the average betters really jump on teams after real big wins or surprising blow out losses. Obviously this tool is better than 50% but not very profitable. I think when you couple it with some other factors it can help. Awesome work FT:0008
 
- FT -

- FT -

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Sure thing..I have a pretty good archive of data for NFL, NCAA FB, and NBA if you ever need anything. Always a pleasure.
 
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Scotter

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Isn't there a system that says to play on any team who lost by 13 or more points ATS in the previous week? I remember tracking this a couple years back and seeing it being extremely profitable. Can you run this through your database FT?
 
gardenweasel

gardenweasel

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haven`t we all noticed that teams that score a bunch usually wet the bed offensively the following week?....

seems to happen quite frequently....
 
- FT -

- FT -

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Scotter said:
Isn't there a system that says to play on any team who lost by 13 or more points ATS in the previous week? I remember tracking this a couple years back and seeing it being extremely profitable. Can you run this through your database FT?
Click to expand...

Again, nothing too intriguing:

Play any team who lost by 13 or more ATS in prev week: 624-558 ATS next game

If the team was at home when they lost by 13 or more ATS: 296-275 ATS next game

If the team was on the road: 328-283 ATS next game

If the team was home and favorite: 201-175 ATS
 
Auto Soldier

Auto Soldier

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FT....

Awesome database. One trend I'd like a bit of info on is:

Bet against any team winning a game outright on Monday night as an underdog when the following week goes on the road posted as a favorite. It applied last week to the Ravens and worked out well. This situation is very rare due to scheduling in the NFL but I believe has worked out very well.

I'd like some validation to this if possible. :shrug:

Thank you very much for your hard work
 
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