MNF Thoughts

[Smitty]

i'll start out with a blunt point. if you're betting the cowboys tonight because it's a 'must-win' or they are 'desperate', you really should not be betting on football. that is one of the dumbest angles to wager on. do you think the linesmakers have no idea the cowboys are 1-4 and 'need' the win? didn't the cowboys 'need' a win last week? and what is the cowboys' record under wade phillips when they 'need' a win? 0-for-how many?
and a more general point - slightly different situation, but how many times have you bet on a team the last week of the season that needed to win to get into the playoffs and lost? it's a terrible reason to bet on a football team, and there's very good money to be made in going against the team that 'needs the win'.

all that said, this line stinks. can it possibly be a 'legit' line, designed to get equal action on both teams? it sure appears to be begging for action on the giants. any other 1-4 team laying 3.5 to the giants in this situation would be the play here, because that line would be outrageous. but these are the dallas cowboys. america's team. like notre dame, people will always bet the dallas cowboys. so maybe this is actually a 'legit' line. i really don't know.

quick thought on the actual matchup - the cowboys are a very talented team that is significantly underachieving (news flash, i know). the best way to drop them to 1-5 is to play smart, disciplined football and don't beat yourselves. sounds a lot like the giants under tom coughlin.

now that i've overanalyzed this game to death, i think i gotta stay off it. the line makes no sense, but because it's the cowboys, it could be legit. good luck to you, whatever you play.

 

[IX_Bender]

First off, Id rather read this, what you wrote, five hundred times over, than another thread with a pick, some stars or 4x next to it, and some emoticons to round it off.


For crying out loud, post some rationale behind your picks people. There are exactly 5 people here that have earned the right to post picks without any reasoning behind them and merit some consideration. Since youre reading this than theres a damn good chance youre not one of them.

Thanks for sharing Smitty.


Heres some more info to chew on.

A three-game winning streak has the New York Giants in first place in their division and brimming with optimism, while the Dallas Cowboys' confidence is clearly shaken after stumbling badly out of the blocks in what's supposed to be a special 2010 campaign. The desperate Cowboys will try to regain their swagger -- as well as save a season teetering on the brink of disaster -- when the reigning NFC East champions host the red-hot Giants in a colossal Monday night showdown between longtime rivals.

Expected to be on the short list of contenders to represent the NFC in Super Bowl XLV, which will be held in Cowboys Stadium, Dallas has instead gotten off to a startling 1-4 start that's put the franchise's grandiose plans in obvious peril. It's the first time the Cowboys have dropped four of their first five tests since 2001, and a loss this week would give the club its worst mark after six games since it began the 1989 season with eight straight setbacks en route to a 1-15 ledger.

Dallas' wounds have been largely self-inflicted, as a deluge of penalties, turnovers and special-teams breakdowns have all contributed to its present poor record. Mistakes doomed the Cowboys once again in last Sunday's 24-21 loss at Minnesota, with the Vikings scoring 10 points off a pair of interceptions of quarterback Tony Romo and getting another touchdown via a 95- yard kick return from wide receiver Percy Harvin to start the second half. The Cowboys also committed a troubling 11 penalties that totaled 91 yards, with one of those flags negating a would-be long touchdown catch by Miles Austin when the standout receiver was called for offensive pass interference.

While the Cowboys have been reeling, the Giants come into Arlington flying high off three October victories that has given Big Blue a share of the NFC East lead with Philadelphia at 4-2. A rejuvenated defense has been at the forefront of the surge, with New York having surrendered the second fewest total yards (264.8 ypg) and passing yards (172.0 ypg) in the league and racking up 21 sacks through the first six weeks. The much-improved unit could face its sternest test to date this week, however, as Dallas ranks third in the NFL in total offense (400.0 ypg) and is averaging 305 yards per game through the air (fourth overall).

New York did permit 302 net passing yards in last weekend's tussle with Detroit, but forced three turnovers and got a big effort from its running game to hand the spirited Lions a 28-20 defeat. Top running back Ahmad Bradshaw put up a season-best 133 yards on only 19 carries, with bruising understudy Brandon Jacobs adding a pair of short touchdown runs on the afternoon.

The Giants have averaged 157.8 rushing yards over the course of their three- game tear, which began with a 17-3 home verdict over Chicago in Week 4 and was extended with a 34-10 road rout of Houston the following Sunday.

 

[gardenweasel]

i'll start out with a blunt point. if you're betting the cowboys tonight because it's a 'must-win' or they are 'desperate', you really should not be betting on football. that is one of the dumbest angles to wager on. do you think the linesmakers have no idea the cowboys are 1-4 and 'need' the win? didn't the cowboys 'need' a win last week? and what is the cowboys' record under wade phillips when they 'need' a win? 0-for-how many?
and a more general point - slightly different situation, but how many times have you bet on a team the last week of the season that needed to win to get into the playoffs and lost? it's a terrible reason to bet on a football team, and there's very good money to be made in going against the team that 'needs the win'.

all that said, this line stinks. can it possibly be a 'legit' line, designed to get equal action on both teams? it sure appears to be begging for action on the giants. any other 1-4 team laying 3.5 to the giants in this situation would be the play here, because that line would be outrageous. but these are the dallas cowboys. america's team. like notre dame, people will always bet the dallas cowboys. so maybe this is actually a 'legit' line. i really don't know.

quick thought on the actual matchup - the cowboys are a very talented team that is significantly underachieving (news flash, i know). the best way to drop them to 1-5 is to play smart, disciplined football and don't beat yourselves. sounds a lot like the giants under tom coughlin.

now that i've overanalyzed this game to death, i think i gotta stay off it. the line makes no sense, but because it's the cowboys, it could be legit. good luck to you, whatever you play.

smitty..i`m trying to figure a reason why not to bet the giants based on your rationale....

maybe i`m not all that savvy at reading between the lines,but based on your write-up(thanks),taking the 3.5 and running seems like an excellent idea......

what exactly is your rationale for "not" taking the giants?...because the line stinks?.....you basically explained that argument with your "america`s team" comment.....

i`m not busting balls...it`s an honest question asked respectfully....

thanks for starting an excellent conversation...:0008

 

[Smitty]

thanks for the kind words, fellas. i've said this in the past, and someone else made the point just the other day - it'd be great if we had more discussions about games, instead of guys just trying to seem smarter than everyone else by posting their plays with no explanation. the one exception for me is nba kid - that dude is great. :0074

gw, the giants are probably the right play, if for no other reason than wade phillips' record in 'must-win' games. but this line, the betting, and the line move has me confounded. i'm really shocked by the love for the cowboys tonight.

i think i'll just save my money for iowa on saturday.

 

[gardenweasel]

thanks for the kind words, fellas. i've said this in the past, and someone else made the point just the other day - it'd be great if we had more discussions about games, instead of guys just trying to seem smarter than everyone else by posting their plays with no explanation. the one exception for me is nba kid - that dude is great. :0074

gw, the giants are probably the right play, if for no other reason than wade phillips' record in 'must-win' games. but this line, the betting, and the line move has me confounded. i'm really shocked by the love for the cowboys tonight.

i think i'll just save my money for iowa on saturday.

thanks for responding...

 

[Smitty]

gw, no problem.

side note - i never would have taken any part of your question in a bad way. doesn't it suck that we're at a point with the internet that you feel like if you question someone, they'll immediately jump down your throat? as far as i'm concerned, that should be what this site is for. so please don't feel like you gotta walk on eggshells in my threads. i welcome questions and comments.

we're all just trying to win a few bucks, right?

:0008

 

[fla]

Smitty,

I had the same concerns you did, but I don't see this as a trap line. Vegas had to put a line out like this because many expect a Dallas explosion.

We'll see. Good luck with Iowa next week. Like them a lot.

 

[Clem D]

For crying out loud, post some rationale behind your picks people. There are exactly 5 people here that have earned the right to post picks without any reasoning behind them and merit some consideration. Since youre reading this than theres a damn good chance youre not one of them.

[[/I]

Me stirring the pot who are they?

 

[Morris]

Hey neighbor...it's Monday nite!! Everyone has to have some action. Well the degenerate gamblers anyway!!

 

[IX_Bender]

Me stirring the pot who are they?

Theres countless of them.
Just click on a few threads are youre there.


Unless you were asking who the fabled 5 who dont have to post shit were, and that took too many years of doing this to know who to 'follow', or at least pay attn to.

Ultimately, do your own capping, but you already know that.

 

[Smitty]

morris, how right you are. i just couldn't recommend either side to anyone, and would have strongly encouraged smaller wagers tonight. that said, i unloaded on dallas. kidding, kidding.

 

[IX_Bender]

Great game to sit 'on the sidelines' so to speak.


:0074

 

[Smitty]

bender, it sure was. i didn't see much of the game, but i just watched the highlights - looked like another gutless performance from the dallas d. if jerry jones really wants to win there, he's gotta park his ego and bring in a good coach. and let him do his job. i don't think he can do that.

sometimes i wonder how many superbowls they would have won if he didn't force out jimmy johnson. :sadwave:

 

[MadJack]

First off, Id rather read this, what you wrote, five hundred times over, than another thread with a pick, some stars or 4x next to it, and some emoticons to round it off.

The only way I have ever handicapped is by running numbers. I never have been able to tell you 10% of the players that are even playing the game. I will make adjustments to key player injuries but I have no write-up, never did, never will.

I make my own line based on numbers and try to make the best bet from my figures. I had this game a pick but took NYG because Dallas DOES suck and the coaching is horrible. Just fucking horrible!

I hear where you're coming from, though, but some people don't handicap thata way

Plus, I suck anyway :0008

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

For crying out loud, post some rationale behind your picks people.

You're single, right?