Trend that may mean nothing at all whatsoever...

[WayneWonder]

One can argue that Pittsburgh has played as well as any team in the NFL early this season, having won 5 of 6 to open 2010. The sole defeat came on a Joe Flacco TD pass with :32 remaining in the fourth quarter.

Perhaps more impressive is the fact that they have achieved this record despite having Ben Roethlisberger for just 2 of the 6 games. It is no secret that as the Steeler defense goes, so goes the team. This unit has played well to say the least, ranking in the top five in most categories, including points and yards allowed. They have allowed 6 teams to score just 6 TDs this year. To put that number into perspective, the 2000 Ravens are generally regarded as one of the best defensive units of all time. They allowed a record-low 165 points on only 16 TDs IN 16 games.

Pittsburgh plays a very physical style of defense, (which some say Hines Ward has brought to the offense) often with two or three players in on a tackle. James Harrison has been fined multiple times this season for hits the league deems "illegal".

It is reasonable to conclude that a team, coming off a physical game against Pittsburgh would be beat up and it may affect their play in the following game. I decide to look into it and found that there was an effect on those teams. They won. All of them. Atlanta, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and Cleveland. Each of these five teams won the next game in which they played. Last week Pittsburgh played Miami. This week the Dolphins travel to the Queen City to face the Bengals. I'm just pointing out the facts. Take it however you might like to....

 

[WayneWonder]

Any thoughts on the game?

I am stumped as to why the line is at -1.5 in favor of the Bengals. Miami has proven they can win on the road this season and Cincinnati is coming off three straight losses to Cleveland, Tampa and Atlanta.

Palmer is hide-your-eyes awful until garbage time where he has looked like an All-Pro. Cedric Benson has returned to his previous self, running for just 3.9 yp/c and losing three fumbles thus far. The defense has been generous all season, allowing 23.5 pp/g.

The Bengals have played just one "quality" game all season, a 15-10 victory over Baltimore in what seems like an eon ago during Week Two. Yet the Bengals are laying two points here...I believe they continue to be overvalued by the books based on last season's formula of run + great defense. After sputtering in the playoffs, the Bengals knew they needed more playmakers in the passing game to help Palmer and help keep defenses from keying in on Benson. Palmer has passed for 300+ yards in three games this year and less than 210 in each of the other three. The 300-yard games all resulted in a loss and in two of the games, most of the yardage was made when the team found themselves trailing by the score of 24-3 at halftime. The Bengals have won two of the three in which Palmer is not asked to throw as often and they would be best served to get back to the ground game, but as I pointed out above, Benson has been abysmal all year.

This looks like the easiest pick on the board to me. Anybody else? Contrarian views?

 

[Clem D]

Great Post:toast:

 

[Cie]

Miami has to travel off of a come-from-ahead win in a game in which they left it all on the field. Very tough spot imo, even for professionals. BTW, this angle has been quite profitable in college.

Both teams have a bigtime matchup next week, but hard to imagine the focus would be anything but the game at hand given that both have ground to gain in the standings.

BTW, I appreciate your contributions to the forum.


GL:weed:

 

[MadJack]

I think the book it making the line low because they fear they will get too much Miami action otherwise. I make the Bengals a 4.5 favorite by my numbers and am loving this game at the moment. JMO :shrug:

 

[Cie]

I think the book it making the line low because they fear they will get too much Miami action otherwise. I make the Bengals a 4.5 favorite by my numbers and am loving this game at the moment. JMO :shrug:

There you have it, Wayne. Phins are the obvious play:0008

 

[MadJack]

There you have it, Wayne. Phins are the obvious play:0008

:0074



ain't that the truth :mj07:

 

[baby johnson]

like them despite mj :mj07:

 

[gsp]

For what it's worth, my stuff says that Cinn wins the game but may not pull the line. With the line this low, I don't know how they can win without pulling the line. However, if Mia becomes the fav before gametime, they win. If I play this one I'll wait until just before gametime.

 

[WayneWonder]

ytd: 9-5

Miami UNDER 43.5
Dolphins have been one of the best teams on the road, esp. defensively. Cincinnati can only score when trailing by DD's.

Detroit -1.5
Detroit has been competitive all season and has stood up well despite a hard schedule. They even thrashed St. Louis, another up-and-comer, in the process. The return of Stafford following a bye last week should have this Lions team motivated to prove last year wasn't a fluke.

Washington has been one of the more fortunate teams in the NFL this year. They have fumbled the ball 11 times but have lost just 2. Their offense is one of the two worst in the league at converting third downs, at just 25%:scared. Sooner or later, these thing will catch up to you.

Kansas City -8.5
Alot of points to lay, but I continue to be impressed by the Chiefs, particularly their secondary. Buffalo has played two great games against two high quality opponents (Pats and Ravens) but ultimately has yet to win a game this season. Turnovers have been a problem in both of the previously mentioned games. The Bills finished with six turnovers in the two games combined. The Bills have proven they can score, but cannot keep pace with a defense allowing 34+ points each of the last five games. Meanwhile the Chiefs have an offense of their own posting 31+ points in three of their last four games.

 

[WayneWonder]

ytd: 11-6

Although I did not end up playing Miami, it is worth noting that the streak is still alive with New Orleans playing at Carolina.

 

[WayneWonder]

New Orleans won and covered, pushing the streak to seven games. Next week Cincinnati plays at Indianapolis. This will certainly put this theory to the test.