Favorites are 4-0 in Bowls so far
- Thread starter ageecee
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with all do respect i just dont see how this will correlate with what happens next. i like many of you have been doing this for many moons and this line of thinking just never cuts it. ie the fav's are 4-0 so far so a dog is DUE to hit. IMO each bowl game is an independant game and nothing that has happened in the past will affect the outcome of the next game. sure it's food for thought. having said that i do like utah tonight, but i can assure you it wont be because ville, troy, no ill and whoever else won
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Agree 100%. The only time I have ever been successful in this type of situation is over/unders in NFL football. They always seem to equal out, but college kids, motivation, etc. You cannot do this and be successful in the long run.
with all do respect, i see your point but it may have something to do with what happens next... cfb this yr : fav's covered 53% to dogs 47%.. if you have been doing this for many moons you would have to think the %'s would even out.. it's just something to consider... the books due better when dogs cover..... I'm looking for the books to start winning when the bigger games bring bigger money to the table.....if you have been doing this long enough, how do you not factor in, what the books need when big money is bet ?????? these games to this point are small potatoes.....the books will get most of the chalk player money back, when it's all over.....having said that : I like bosie to cover, small bet !
noted and completely agree with all your comments. i think there's a gambling adage that says dont ever bet against streaks, ride em until they buck you off. all i'm saying if you went back and forth saying it won last time, so it's likely to lose this time that is BS. like i said it's good food for thought but basing a play on that basis is a losing proposition
Does it count as a cover for the fav when they open at 3.5 get down to 2.5 and win by 3??
What about tonight if SD St wins by 4? They opened at 5 or 5.5 and went down to 3?
Some say closing line is what matters but line value is important and how vegas shakes out between the sharps and the public is just as important. By this I mean, the sharps made their money on So Miss plus the 3.5. Whereas most of the public made money on the last minute 2.5 as I did.
with Navy/SD St, looks like the public took Navy with the 5.5 due to the heavy rains and the field condition. Is SD St going to be able to throw the ball? Will there be a speed advantage on this field?
Did we miss out on Navy with the better line or does Vegas get a middle and the game finishes at 4??
Just my observations ovet the last few bowl seasons.
What about tonight if SD St wins by 4? They opened at 5 or 5.5 and went down to 3?
Some say closing line is what matters but line value is important and how vegas shakes out between the sharps and the public is just as important. By this I mean, the sharps made their money on So Miss plus the 3.5. Whereas most of the public made money on the last minute 2.5 as I did.
with Navy/SD St, looks like the public took Navy with the 5.5 due to the heavy rains and the field condition. Is SD St going to be able to throw the ball? Will there be a speed advantage on this field?
Did we miss out on Navy with the better line or does Vegas get a middle and the game finishes at 4??
Just my observations ovet the last few bowl seasons.
Personally, I feel if a game can be bet at a given time and a winner is produced it should be counted as a plus. Do we all do that on keeping our own records? So by saying that I feel a 5-0 favorite record is a fair statement. Obviously the theory to put a small amount on the MONEYLINE thru the bowl games on the UNDERDOG hasn't been a good idea so far. :facepalm:
I played it @ 3 and think most people who play did the same.. most of the avearge bettors are not early action... I think most people bet with locals and thats day of action.
not tonite : hawaii covers..... fla int wins, as your first dog...think fla will be the chalk by gm time .....
I like all 3 dogs tonight , with ill the best ats.. DOES ANYONE LIKE E CAR +7.5 ????? anyone ????
ME THINKS, ALL THE DOGS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY : THE BEST BEING SYR, (ATS) SAME SYSYTEM THAT GAVE ME ILL YESTERDAY... after syr : tenn, army, wash.....in that order.... I'm only playing syracuse.....
Please tell me how Tenn will win. I really dont have a clue on how, unless you are relying on the Tarheel team that showed up to play Miami and the 2nd half against Va Tech. Other than those 2 instances, I don't see UNC losing to the Vols
i don't know , just a system play... like i said only playing syr.. this is a dog system where I play or pass... on a scale of 1 to 10.. 10 being the best syr is a 9.. tenn is a 7... army is a 4... wash is a 3 ....
