Texas Tech vs. TCU

[Smitty]

I just spent a stupid amount of time on this game, and I thought I'd share my findings.

When handicapping sports, you can't look at one game in a vacuum. You gotta know who they just played and who they are playing next. ESPECIALLY with college kids. So this week we have Texas Tech at TCU. Even though both teams are in Texas, this isn't a huge rivalry game. But who does TCU play next week? None other than the University of Texas. That game means a LOT to the Horned Frogs. So I thought I'd check the history on TCU the week before they played Texas. I went back to 2012, which is when TCU joined the Big12. I guess you can call it Confirmation Bias, but I found exactly what I expected. I'll definitely be making some large wagers on the Red Raiders, both for the game and the 1st half.

This is the game before TCU played Texas:

2021 TCU -9.5 vs SMU. The game was 21-21 at the half, and SMU won 42-34.
2020 TCU +4 vs Iowa St. Iowa St led 16-7 at the half, and won 37-34. TCU covered. BUT it was a backdoor 31-yard td as the clock expired.
2019 TCU -4 at Kansas St. K St led 14-10 at the half and won 24-17.
2018 TCU +13 vs Ohio St. TCU led 14-13 at the half and Ohio St won 40-28.
2017 TCU -7 at Iowa St. Iowa St led 14-0 at the half and won 14-7.
2016 TCU -6 vs Ok St. Ok St led 10-6 at the half and won 31-6.
2015 TCU -5 at Texas Tech. TCU led 33-28 at the half and won 55-52 on a TD with 23 seconds left.
2014 TCU -28 at Kansas. Kansas led 13-10 at the half and TCU won 34-30.
2013 TCU +6.5 at Ok St. Ok St led 17-0 at the half and won 24-10.
2012 TCU +7 vs Kansas. Kansas led 13-0 at the half and won 23-10.

Takeaways
The game before Texas, TCU is 2-8 ATS. The 2 covers were 1) against Ohio St, who nobody is going to look past and 2) against Iowa St 2 years ago on the last-second backdoor TD. And, FWIW, the opening line against Ohio St was +10. So they could very easily be 0-10 ATS the game before Texas.

TCU is also 2-8 ATS in the first half in this situation.

The last 4 times TCU was favored the week before Texas, they lost SU. And damn near 5 straight, if not for the late score in 2015.

As a favorite the week before Texas, TCU is 0-6 ATS.

 

[loophole]

nice work smitty. thats what handicapping college football is all about.

 

[Smitty]

Thank you. Let's hope it pans out.

I guess I should add one caveat... Sonny Dykes is in his first year at TCU. Maybe, somehow, he figures out how to keep those kids focused on Tech.

 

[BMONEY83]

It's not a huge rivalry but it's definitely a rivalry and growing. Many ppl in the dfw area went to Tech. But to add to a reason I'll be on Tech as well:
TCU is tired of Tech fans being the majority at these home games so TCU did not sell single game tickets to this game and this game only to try to put a stop to this. Well I think this may backfire as it seems half of Lbk is wanting to go just to go. Shit seats are going for $400-600 for this game right now. Think tech fans will get ahold of just enough tickets to make this not much of a home game for TCU...AGAIN!

 

[ejthree]

Terrific research Smitty , I’m in…

 

[Keith 1]

Good stuff Smitty (I miss the JoePa avatar !). Will be tailing :0074

 

[Smitty]

It's not a huge rivalry but it's definitely a rivalry and growing. Many ppl in the dfw area went to Tech. But to add to a reason I'll be on Tech as well:
TCU is tired of Tech fans being the majority at these home games so TCU did not sell single game tickets to this game and this game only to try to put a stop to this. Well I think this may backfire as it seems half of Lbk is wanting to go just to go. Shit seats are going for $400-600 for this game right now. Think tech fans will get ahold of just enough tickets to make this not much of a home game for TCU...AGAIN!

thank you, great info!

EJ, let me know if your friends have any thoughts on this game. I was leaning strong to the over (or maybe the Tech TT over), but now I think I'll have enough on the side that I can just leave the total alone.

Keith, I miss it, too. I'm guessing all the avatars got wiped out when everything changed. But maybe it's time for something different. Lemme see if I can figure out how to update it....

 

[Smitty]

There we go. I thought about using the photo of myself doing the "Duke floor slap" at Cameron Indoor, but let's go with something tropical for now.

 

[boomer1]

It's not a huge rivalry but it's definitely a rivalry and growing. Many ppl in the dfw area went to Tech. But to add to a reason I'll be on Tech as well:
TCU is tired of Tech fans being the majority at these home games so TCU did not sell single game tickets to this game and this game only to try to put a stop to this. Well I think this may backfire as it seems half of Lbk is wanting to go just to go. Shit seats are going for $400-600 for this game right now. Think tech fans will get ahold of just enough tickets to make this not much of a home game for TCU...AGAIN!

For some crazy reason I was looking at ticket prices for games in driving distance for me this week and that ticket price caught my eye. I thought it was a misprint. I see why it’s so expensive now.

 

[Smitty]

The line is down to 8.5 :0corn

 

[Smitty]

just a quick post-op review. the horned frogs were clearly outplayed by an inferior team. the only td they scored in the 1H was on a punt return. texas tech's defense was terrific for most of the game. but you can only overcome so much. losing their starting qb in the 2nd quarter hurt. but the turning point in the game, and anyone who was watching knows what i'm talking about... late in the 3rd quarter, TT up 17-13, d playing great, TCU ball, 2nd and 10 from their own 34. duggan gets sacked, bringing up 3rd and 14. TT has all the momentum. and then the flag. for a complete bs face mask. just a horrible call that COMPLETELY changed the momentum. TCU went down to score (aided by 2 DPI penalties), and the game was over at that point.

at least we hit the 1H bet, but TT easily should have covered the game and maybe would have won if not for that penalty.

so now TCU is 3-8 ATS (2-9 for the 1H) the week before texas. and all 3 covers were by, get this, 1 point. i will definitely look to repeat this wager next year.