Friday 12/16 Bowl Games

[Smitty]

Bowl Season again. A magical time. Let me start by stating the obvious.... not a snowball's chance in hell that I have a run through the Bowls like I did last year. Hopefully I'll still make my annual pre-New Year's profit. As usual, my plan is to bet every bowl game. Except the 2 that I cannot legally wager on. One is the Pinstripe Bowl and the other is whatever game UB is in. I think the Camellia Bowl.

I've already spent way too much time on the....

Bahamas Bowl
Starting with a real doozy. (And if that's not the correct spelling of "doozy", then what the hell is?) A lot of factors point towards Miami. They won their last 2 games to get here, including overcoming an 11-point deficit in the 4th quarter against Ball St, who also needed the game to be bowl-eligible. This is a lot of points to get from a UAB team that was hit with their coach quitting/retiring shortly before the season. And a team that has been very solid the last few years only went 6-6. And one of those wins was a 59-0 shellacking of Alabama. Whoops, sorry, that's Alabama A&M. UAB is 4-8 ATS, including several SU losses as a fav. Also, Bryant Vincent at UAB is in his first year there as HC, which is a big bet-against trend.
However, digging a little deeper, UAB is a little better than they look on paper. All of their losses (not counting the blowout at LSU late in the season) were by one score. And all of their wins were by at least 10 points. Also, 3 of their losses were without their qb Hopkins (counting the WKU game when he was knocked out after starting 2/2 for 63 yards).
UAB's defense, which has been really good the last few years, took a step back this year. But not as bad as it may appear. It's really their run defense that is a concern, as they allowed 4.69 yards/carry. However, I don't see Miami being able to take advantage, as they only average 3.84 yards/carry, which is 84th in the country. In fact, Miami's leading rusher is their qb. So they have no real ground game. And, wow, they sure can't throw the ball either. They average 166 yards through the air, which is 121st in the country (and 6.26 yards/att, which is 111th). Meanwhile, UAB is 14th, allowing 6.26 yards/att.
Offensively, UAB is ok, but their ground game is outstanding. They are 5th in the country with 244 yards/game and 2nd, averaging 5.97 yards/carry. Miami allows 3.93 yards/carry, which is 53rd in the country. Not terrible, until you remember that was mostly against MAC teams. I was curious to see how they did against Carson Steele in the last game of the season, with a bowl bid on the line. Steele is a really good RB, but he was questionable to even play in the game. Well, he ran 26 times for 180 yards. Bad news for Miami... DeWayne McBride is an absolute beast for UAB. He averaged 7.4 yards/carry this season.

Ok, so UAB is better than they look on paper, and Miami is, well, from the MAC. I hate laying this many points and I usually prefer betting dogs in bowl games. But without an obvious motivational edge for either team, I think UAB is the bet, as they wear down Miami and Miami can't move the ball.

UAB (-10.5) 2 units
under (45) 2 units

 

[rocky mountain]

Great write up, chock full of info and analysis, thank you and i hope you roll again.
Curious why arent you allowed to bet on these 2 games? And who is UB?
Except the 2 that I cannot legally wager on. One is the Pinstripe Bowl and the other is whatever game UB is in. I think the Camellia Bowl.

 

[Keith 1]

Good stuff, Smitty. Still miss the JoePa avatar however

 

[Smitty]

Thank you, RM. In NY we can't (legally) wager on any NY college teams. Or, I believe, any college games played in NY. This year, because 'Cuse is in the Pinstripe Bowl, that game is double-eliminated. And UB is the University of Buffalo.

Thank you, Keith. Yeah, it's not the same without JoePa. When all the avatars disappeared with the website change, I figured it was as good a time as any to change it up.

Alrighty, time to get to work on the Cure Bowl. I feel like i'm already behind schedule.

 

[Smitty]

Cure Bowl
First off, shot in the dark here... does anyone have updated #s on the bowl game records of HCs in their first year with the team? I haven't seen anything in a few years, but last I knew that was a very strong trend. Strong enough that I hate going against it. Although I may be doing just that in the Cure Bowl, because Sumrall is in his first season at Troy.

Second, a little nugget I discovered while confirming that Frank Harris hadn't opted out of this game. He just announced he's going to return for his 7th (SEVENTH!) season at UTSA next year. Due in no small part to his new NIL deal. In the six-figure range. Ok, I'm old-fashioned and we all have our own opinions on this.... but I think this whole NIL shit is insane. I mean, the corruption is all out in the open now, I guess. And this is the rare instance where it's actually working out for the mid-major school, as a great college qb is sticking around. But 99% of the time it's going to be the big schools that buy the best players. At the very least, these kids making stupid amounts of money should have to return their scholarship money, for fuck's sake.

Ok, off the soap box. We now return to your regularly scheduled programming.

Obviously, one of the first things you need to look at with bowl games is motivation. This has gotten a little more difficult in recent years. Until recently, you always had a bunch of bowl games that featured decent mid-major teams against mediocre power-5 teams. Now, it feels like they make an effort to avoid that, probably because those power-5 teams didn't care about the games and kept getting beat. So now you have a lot of match-ups featuring 2 mid-major teams. In this game, UTSA has been to 2 straight bowl games, but they lost both. This is Troy's first bowl game since 2018. I'll give the edge to Troy.

With 2 motivated teams, we can focus on the data. And this is an interesting match-up. Particularly UTSA's offense against Troy's defense.

Let's start with probably the simplest metric in football... yards per play. National ranks in parentheses. No surprise, UTSA averages 6.50/yds per play (23rd) on offense while Troy averages 5.86 (53rd). And, again, no surprise, as Troy's defense allows 4.69 (9th) yds/play while UTSA gives up 5.77 (86th). So there's the biggest difference. While UTSA's offense is certainly better than Troy's, Troy's defense is a LOT better than UTSA's. And I don't think this will be all that controversial when I say Troy put up those numbers in the better conference.

Thanks to their stifling defense, Troy can afford to be patient on offense. They ran the ball more than they threw it. One thing that stood out, for a team that doesn't throw the ball every down, Troy has given up a lot of sacks. Luckily for them, UTSA is 115th in the country, with only 19 sacks in 13 games.

UTSA's offense is efficient both on the ground and through the air. But Troy's defense has been very good in both phases. They allow 6.1 yards per attempt, which is 12th in the country. And they give up 3.33 yards/rush, which is 16th.

Edge in the kicking game to Troy. Their kicker made 16 of 18 fgs, while UTSA's kicker was 21 of 26. It's interesting that Troy only attempted 4 fgs of 40+ yards all season. But they made all 4.

They have 2 common opponents. Both teams had a narrow win over Army. Troy beat the Knights 10-9 while UTSA beat them 41-38 in OT. And each team beat WKU by one score.

Not much weather to speak of. High of 70? with sun and light winds. They do expect a lot of rain on Thursday. Even if the field does get torn up, not sure if that would be much of an advantage one way or the other.

Is there anything I forgot? Anyone still reading at this point?

Well, after all that, maybe this boils down to one very old adage in football... good defense beats good offense.

Troy (-1.5, -115) 6 units
Under (55.5) 1 unit
1H Under (26.5, +110) 2 units

 

[JustFootball]

Smitty, can't remember how much info you provided for past bowl games. But if this is any indication, I feel like we all ought to chip in to pay you a research fee--this isn't just handicapping, it's like it's your job. :lol:

Thank you in advance for the detailed and insightful writeups! I look forward to using your analysis as I weigh all of the upcoming games. :toast:

 

[Smitty]

Smitty, can't remember how much info you provided for past bowl games. But if this is any indication, I feel like we all ought to chip in to pay you a research fee--this isn't just handicapping, it's like it's your job. :lol:

Thank you in advance for the detailed and insightful writeups! I look forward to using your analysis as I weigh all of the upcoming games. :toast:

:toast:

Well, ever since my forced early retirement earlier this year, this pretty much is my job. At least I hope it keeps going well enough that I don't have to go back to work.

Posting the info here helps me organize my thoughts and research. Some of these games, I have no idea who I'm going to bet when I start the post. That said, my post for the Armed Forces bowl is probably going to be fairly brief, because I already know I'm hammering Air Force. Speaking of which... I'm pissed I haven't got a bet in, since the line has dropped a point. As soon as I typed that, I realized I hadn't checked my second option (BetMGM). And they still have it at 6.5. I'd better get that bet in now, since it doesn't look like the line is going to go to 7.

OH, that reminds me... anybody know WTF is going on with the New Orleans Bowl? The line on South Alabama suddenly dropped from around -8 to -4. In fact, it looks like it's off the board at BetMGM. I can't find any info on what's driving that.

 

[Tenpin832]

OH, that reminds me... anybody know WTF is going on with the New Orleans Bowl? The line on South Alabama suddenly dropped from around -8 to -4. In fact, it looks like it's off the board at BetMGM. I can't find any info on what's driving that.

From what I found on a different site but can't personally confirm ...

"WKU QB withdrew from portal - is playing"

 

[Smitty]

From what I found on a different site but can't personally confirm ...

"WKU QB withdrew from portal - is playing"

That's it. Thank you, I appreciate that. I had no idea he was even in the portal. That would explain the seemingly inflated line on USA. VERY interesting that the line move indicates he's only worth about 4 points, considering nobody else on that team has thrown more than 12 passes this year.

Really sucks that I bet USA at 7.5, worried that it was going to go up to 8. :facepalm:

 

[TurdofDoom]

You have to keep an eye on that goofy portal/grad transfers and opt outs. Obviously a huge factor in todays bowl games.

 

[BMONEY83]

UAB RB McBride not playing

 

[Smitty]

"One thing that stood out, for a team that doesn't throw the ball every down, Troy has given up a lot of sacks." Well, I certainly nailed that. :facepalm:

Updated record:

Sides: 1-1 +3.8
ML: 0-0
Totals: 3-0 +5.2

 

[Smitty]

Oh, and what complete bullshit from McBride, deciding at the last minute (essentially) not to play. I know, he's got people telling him not to play. He might get hurt. But that was true the last game of the season. And the game before that. Those games mattered just as much or as little as the bowl game. It's a damn dagger in the heart of your teammates. Fucker just took his free trip to the Bahamas and then said FU to UAB.