Wednesday 12/28 Bowl Games

[Smitty]

Military Bowl

Both of these teams are led by dual-threat qbs who lead their team in rushing. Plumlee finally gave up on Ole Miss and has been good at UCF. He averages 7.7 yds/att and has thrown for 14 TDs and 7 INTs. His main value is with his legs. He's averaging 5.8 yards/carry. He is dealing with a hamstring injury, but what I'm reading indicates he is expected to play. They are expecting a high of 46? tomorrow, so we'll see if that hammy ends up being an issue for a qb who gets a lot of yards on the ground. The backup has transferred out, and it's a big drop down to QB3 Castellanos.

As for the rest of the UCF ground game... I'm a little surprised Bowser continues to get as many carries as he does. He averages 3.9 yards/carry. He has 82 more carries than Harvey, who averages 6.8 yards/carry.

Duke's run defense has been solid, giving up 3.73 yards/att, which is 38th in the country. The Blue Devils are very susceptible to the pass, allowing 7.32 yards/att. However, even IF Plumlee is relatively healthy, UCF may not be able to exploit that weakness.

For Duke, sophomore Riley Leonard is averaging 7.7 yards/att with 20 TDs and 6 INTs. On the ground, he's averaging 5.6 yards/carry.

Similar to UCF, Duke seems to be giving the bulk of the carries to the wrong guys. Coleman has been getting more carries than Waters lately, but that's pretty much a wash, as they average 4.5 and 4.7 yards/carry. Meanwhile, sophomore Jaquez Moore is averaging 6.9. He is their most explosive back. All 3 (and Leonard) should enjoy success against a poor UCF rush defense. They allow 4.53 yards/carry, which is 97th in the country.

Certainly a motivational edge for Duke, coming off a winless 2021. UCF, with a win in the conference championship game, would have been playing USC in the Cotton Bowl. 3 defensive starters opting out shows how excited they are for this game.

Obviously this line has swung quite a bit towards Duke, but I'm still betting the more motivated team. If Plumlee's hammy isn't 100%, and that chilly weather isn't going to help, UCF could be in for a long day.

Duke (-3.5, +100) 4 units
Duke TT over (33.5) 4 units

 

[Smitty]

Updated Bowl Record After 12/27
Sides: 9-9 +8.6
ML: 5-5 +9.8
Totals: 16-10 +14.3


Liberty Bowl

Gonna try to keep this (relatively) brief, because I already bet KU on the ML a week or two ago, and I have KU and the over in some parlays.

Ok,several sources online confirm that Arkansas is, in fact, missing 9 or 10 starters for this game. Most importantly... a some WRs, their Center, and, most important of all... BUMPER POOL!! I had forgotten they have a LB named Bumper Pool. He's a team captain, in fact, and their all-time leading tackler. So not just a joy for announcers to say, he's actually a big loss for that (porous) defense.

Both teams have a great run game. KU averages 5.67 yds/carry, which is 3rd in the country. Arkansas is no slouch, putting up 4.85 yds/carry. Both defenses are in the bottom 3rd of the country at stopping the run.

The ground games are going to be key, because they are expecting some wind today in Memphis. Mid-teens all game, which isn't horrible, but 30 mph gusts.

Motivation is key when it comes to stopping the run. Overall, huge motivational edge to KU, obviously. But the back-ups for Arkansas who are going to be starting may be fired up to show what they can do. Now, as bad as the starters were at stopping the run, there's no reason to think the back-ups will be any better. And on the other side of the ball, KU's defense is so bad, all the motivation in the world may not help.

Big question for me... how will KU's offense play? After a great start to the year with Daniels and, really, not much drop-off with Bean, they did backslide after Daniels returned from his injury. My hope is that the additional time off helped him heal up and get his timing back.

(already bet) KU (ML) 4 to win 5.4
KU TT over (34.5) 4 units
Ark TT over (36.5) 4 units
1Q under (14) 2 units (it can take a little time to shake off the rust after the layoff, especially been both teams will likely be establishing their run game)

 

[Smitty]

Holiday Bowl

If you hate defense, this is the game for you!

I don't really care too much about this game, so I'm going to spend minimal time on it. Hell, the Military Bowl is starting as I'm typing this. Go Duke!

Neither team finished the season strong. Oregon lost 2 of its last 3 to get knocked out of the PAC 12 championship game. And UNC lost it's last 3, including a humiliating 29-pt loss in the ACC championship game.

UNC has one of the top pass games in the country, throwing for 317 yards/game and 8.4 yards/att. Oregon's pass defense isn't good, but it's not as bad as it looks at first glance, as they give up 7.24 yards/att, which is 83rd in the country. But losing Christian Gonzalez for this game will hurt. Even with the loss of Downs for this game, UNC has 2 guys (Green and Jones) who averaged over 18 yards/catch.

UNC will run the ball, and Oregon's run defense took a hit with Sewell declaring for the NFL draft and opting out today (again, confirmed by 2 different sources).

Oregon can sling it, as they average 8.7 yards/att, but they are built around the ground game, as Irving, Whittington, and Nix all average between 5.9 - 6.3 yards/carry. UNC gives up 4.37 yards/carry, which is 92nd in the country.

Over (76) 3 units. This total opened high and kept going up, even with Downs opting out for UNC. First team to 50 wins!!

 

[Smitty]

Texas Bowl

This is a mildly interesting match-up featuring the TT pass game against the Ole Miss ground game.

TT has had 3 different starting QBs this season, so it's hard to use season #s. But Shough has been the best of the 3. Since taking over, he's completed 63.5% with 4 TDs and 1 INT, averaging 7.9 yards/att. Granted, 2 of those 3 games were against KU and OK. But against Iowa St, a very solid defense, he completed 71% of his passes with a TD and no INTs.

Ole Miss is 43rd in the country, allowing 6.69 yards/att.

The Rebels pound you with the ground game. They are 3rd in the country, averaging 262 yards/game and 9th, averaging 5.5 yards/carry. Judkins ran for over 1,400 yards this year, averaging 5.9 yards/carry. His back-up Evans ran for 899 yards and averages 6.6. TT is 80th in the country, allowing 4.22 yards/rush.

As a general rule, I will normally bet against "home" teams in bowl games. There's a lack of excitement when you don't get to travel. This is a little different, because while the game is in Texas, Houston is about 8 hours away from Lubbock. Hell, Oxford, MS is only about 9 hours away. But I still think staying in your home state is a bit of a negative.

I do not like putting myself in a position where I'm rooting for Lane Kiffin. Especially laying points. Not happy about this at all. But I like that ground game to eventually wear down the Red Raiders.

Ole Miss (-3.5) 2 units
Over (72) 2 units

 

[jdg226]

How the fuck does Kiffen have a job? Isn't the idea to win the game not to show how creative you are? I just don't get it. I see it week after week in college and the NFL. Just stunningly stupid and nobody says a word.

 

[Smitty]

How the fuck does Kiffen have a job? Isn't the idea to win the game not to show how creative you are? I just don't get it. I see it week after week in college and the NFL. Just stunningly stupid and nobody says a word.

It's fucking insane, how terrible football coaching is in college and the NFL.

For instance... KU has that great comeback and is fighting for a winning season, which would be huge for them. And on the last play of the game... when you absolutely have to score that 2-point conversion... you take the ball out of the hands of your best player and have your backup qb, who has barely played since November 12, try to make a play. :facepalm:

 

[rocky mountain]

It's fucking insane, how terrible football coaching is in college and the NFL.

For instance... KU has that great comeback and is fighting for a winning season, which would be huge for them. And on the last play of the game... when you absolutely have to score that 2-point conversion... you take the ball out of the hands of your best player and have your backup qb, who has barely played since November 12, try to make a play. :facepalm:

That was ridiculous, why would he do that, they were unstoppable.