Monday 1/2 Bowls

[Smitty]

ReliaQuest Bowl

Illinois' offense... meh. Brown had a good year, and he's out for this game. Not as big a loss as you might think. He only averaged 5.0 yards/carry. They just gave him the all a LOT. That tells me he's probably a product of good offensive line play. Miss St was vulnerable to the ground game, allowing 4.11 yards/carry, 69th in the country.

The Bulldogs only gave up 6.38 yards/att through the air, 20th in the country, so don't expect much from DeVito today. In fact, if Miss St rides that emotional wave and gets out to a solid lead, Illinois is fucked.

Illinois' defense was outstanding this year, but you have to wonder how much of that was due to playing a lot of weak Big10 offenses. Miss St ran for less than 1,000 yards this year. They are going to throw, throw, throw. Illinois only allowed 5.36 yards/att, which is 2nd in the country. But, again, how much of that was due to playing very weak passing offenses? They avoided Ohio St this year, so the best passing offense they faced was Purdue. Now, Purdue's offense was sort of similar to Miss St, in that they rack up a lot of passing yards through volume, not explosive downfield plays. They were 17th in passing yards but 89th in yards/att. Miss St is 8th in passing yards, but only average 6.4 yards/att, which is... 112th in the country. Not really an explosive offense. I think this is actually a good matchup for Illinois.

Ok, we're only 20 minutes from kickoff, so I need to wrap this up. I don't know how the emotional aspects are going to play out. Miss St could be fired up to honor their coach. They could be deflated and, obviously, there's been a lot of distractions. But you probably don't need to be super-focused to stop Illinois' offense.

Now that the line is over 3, I have to take the dog.

Illinois (+3.5) 2 units
Under (46) 6 units

 

[Smitty]

Updated Record after 12/31 games. Absolutely brutal day wiped out most of my bowl profits.

Bowl Record
Sides: 13-13 +6.8
ML: 7-8 +4.6
Totals: 25-21 +2.4

 

[Smitty]

Citrus Bowl

Another complete shit show, as far as who's NOT playing. Both QBS are out, although Daniels' absence is due to injury. Almost as importantly for Purdue's offense, Charlie Jones is out. And apparently about half of LSU's roster is out. The linesmakers have LSU's backups as 15-pt favs over Purdue's backups.

I don't care about this game, and I'm not spending any time on it. But, duh, of course I'm betting it.

Funny thing is, I think there's only 2 ways to go. Either lay the points or take Purdue on the ML.

Fuck it, let's get crazy.

Purdue (ML) 1 to win 5
Under (54.5) 1 unit

 

[Lightning]

Always enjoy your write ups brother.

Good luck and Happy New Yesr!
:toast:

 

[Smitty]

Cotton Bowl

Obviously when this line came out, it grabbed your attention. Even with a backup QB, USC is only laying 2 to Tulane? And, allegedly, Williams may still play. It's so damn obvious that it seems like EVERYONE is jumping on the Green Wave. Myself included. Pratt has had a great year, but from what I've seen, I'm not sure I completely trust him in a big game. Even if it's only a big game to one team. But I'm not going to overanalyze this one. Huge motivational edge.

The key for me is Tyjae Spears, the Tulane RB. This kid runs HARD. He averages 6.5 yards/carry (7.8 against ranked teams!!). And they're going to need to establish the ground game against a Trojan defense that allows 4.66 yards/carry, which is 106th in the country. And that was in games they CARED about.

Tulane is also somewhat vulnerable on the ground, but I don't think USC is going to be patient enough to exploit that.

Everything I'm reading indicates Williams is playing. And the line isn't moving.

Tulane (ML) 8 units to win 8.4
Under (66.5) 2 units.

 

[Smitty]

Always enjoy your write ups brother.

Good luck and Happy New Yesr!
:toast:

Thank you! And Happy New Year to you! (Please tell me your pickup line is "do you wanna ride the Lightning?") :00hour

 

[Smitty]

Rose Bowl

Ok, the opening line was begging for Utah money, and the line movement reinforces that. Even knowing PSU is the "right" play, I was still going to bet Utah. They are just so much better overall. And Whittingham vs. Franklin is a huge mismatch. But then I saw two stats that changed my mind. That is called a teaser. I'll get to it soon enough.

Each team has a big opt-out. Kincaid for Utah and Porter for PSU.

PSU only played one game all year decided by less than 10 points, and that was the season opener.

PSU was the 3rd or 4th best team in a really down Big10 this year. Their defensive numbers are solid but, again, likely flattered by a lot of weak offenses in that conference. On a per-game basis, Utah has nearly identical defensive #s. And they faced USC (twice), UCLA, and Oregon.

Here are the numbers that surprised me... those numbers I love so much.... yards/carry and yards/att. Remember when I said these teams are nearly identical on a per-game basis? Well, that deeper dive is critical here. Utah only allows 2 more yards/game on the ground. BUT they allow 3.83 yards/carry while PSU only allows 3.21.

And while Utah only gives up 5.5 yards per game passing more than PSU, they give up 7.26 yards/att while PSU allows 5.86, which is 5th best in the country.

So overall, PSU allows 4.6 yards/play, which is 4th in the country. The top 3 (Iowa, Illinois, and Marshall) all won their bowl game or are currently winning. Utah gives up 5.6 yards/play. While PSU was definitely helped by their conference, that is still a large difference.

Naturally, I think the run game is going to be the deciding factor. I'm hoping Franklin is smart enough (ugh) to give Singleton the bulk of the carries. Allen is good, but Singleton is better. Both should have good games against this Utah defense.

So this is tough for me, betting against "the eye test." I know I'm betting the inferior team. But I think this is a good match-up for PSU. As long as Clifford doesn't throw 3 INTs. :facepalm:​​​​​​​

PSU (-1.5) 2 units
Under (54) 8 units

 

[ejthree]

ReliaQuest Bowl

Illinois' offense... meh. Brown had a good year, and he's out for this game. Not as big a loss as you might think. He only averaged 5.0 yards/carry. They just gave him the all a LOT. That tells me he's probably a product of good offensive line play. Miss St was vulnerable to the ground game, allowing 4.11 yards/carry, 69th in the country.

The Bulldogs only gave up 6.38 yards/att through the air, 20th in the country, so don't expect much from DeVito today. In fact, if Miss St rides that emotional wave and gets out to a solid lead, Illinois is fucked.

Illinois' defense was outstanding this year, but you have to wonder how much of that was due to playing a lot of weak Big10 offenses. Miss St ran for less than 1,000 yards this year. They are going to throw, throw, throw. Illinois only allowed 5.36 yards/att, which is 2nd in the country. But, again, how much of that was due to playing very weak passing offenses? They avoided Ohio St this year, so the best passing offense they faced was Purdue. Now, Purdue's offense was sort of similar to Miss St, in that they rack up a lot of passing yards through volume, not explosive downfield plays. They were 17th in passing yards but 89th in yards/att. Miss St is 8th in passing yards, but only average 6.4 yards/att, which is... 112th in the country. Not really an explosive offense. I think this is actually a good matchup for Illinois.

Ok, we're only 20 minutes from kickoff, so I need to wrap this up. I don't know how the emotional aspects are going to play out. Miss St could be fired up to honor their coach. They could be deflated and, obviously, there's been a lot of distractions. But you probably don't need to be super-focused to stop Illinois' offense.

Now that the line is over 3, I have to take the dog.

Illinois (+3.5) 2 units
Under (46) 6 units

:toast: Total dead on and brutal game.

 

[Lightning]

Thank you! And Happy New Year to you! (Please tell me your pickup line is "do you wanna ride the Lightning?") :00hour

Haha ... love it ... I may have to use it on the future. :lol:

 

[Lightning]

Rose Bowl

Ok, the opening line was begging for Utah money, and the line movement reinforces that. Even knowing PSU is the "right" play, I was still going to bet Utah. They are just so much better overall. And Whittingham vs. Franklin is a huge mismatch. But then I saw two stats that changed my mind. That is called a teaser. I'll get to it soon enough.

Each team has a big opt-out. Kincaid for Utah and Porter for PSU.

PSU only played one game all year decided by less than 10 points, and that was the season opener.

PSU was the 3rd or 4th best team in a really down Big10 this year. Their defensive numbers are solid but, again, likely flattered by a lot of weak offenses in that conference. On a per-game basis, Utah has nearly identical defensive #s. And they faced USC (twice), UCLA, and Oregon.

Here are the numbers that surprised me... those numbers I love so much.... yards/carry and yards/att. Remember when I said these teams are nearly identical on a per-game basis? Well, that deeper dive is critical here. Utah only allows 2 more yards/game on the ground. BUT they allow 3.83 yards/carry while PSU only allows 3.21.

And while Utah only gives up 5.5 yards per game passing more than PSU, they give up 7.26 yards/att while PSU allows 5.86, which is 5th best in the country.

So overall, PSU allows 4.6 yards/play, which is 4th in the country. The top 3 (Iowa, Illinois, and Marshall) all won their bowl game or are currently winning. Utah gives up 5.6 yards/play. While PSU was definitely helped by their conference, that is still a large difference.

Naturally, I think the run game is going to be the deciding factor. I'm hoping Franklin is smart enough (ugh) to give Singleton the bulk of the carries. Allen is good, but Singleton is better. Both should have good games against this Utah defense.

So this is tough for me, betting against "the eye test." I know I'm betting the inferior team. But I think this is a good match-up for PSU. As long as Clifford doesn't throw 3 INTs. :facepalm:​​​​​​​

PSU (-1.5) 2 units
Under (54) 8 units

I am from PA and a Penn State fan. That write up is dead on from Penn State's point. I have a hard time backing them in this game but I totally agree on the under. Franklin just sucks too much as a game coach in big games. Few adjustments, gets away from the run at times.

 

[rocky mountain]

Cotton Bowl

Obviously when this line came out, it grabbed your attention. Even with a backup QB, USC is only laying 2 to Tulane? And, allegedly, Williams may still play. It's so damn obvious that it seems like EVERYONE is jumping on the Green Wave. Myself included. Pratt has had a great year, but from what I've seen, I'm not sure I completely trust him in a big game. Even if it's only a big game to one team. But I'm not going to overanalyze this one. Huge motivational edge.

The key for me is Tyjae Spears, the Tulane RB. This kid runs HARD. He averages 6.5 yards/carry (7.8 against ranked teams!!). And they're going to need to establish the ground game against a Trojan defense that allows 4.66 yards/carry, which is 106th in the country. And that was in games they CARED about.

Tulane is also somewhat vulnerable on the ground, but I don't think USC is going to be patient enough to exploit that.

Everything I'm reading indicates Williams is playing. And the line isn't moving.

Tulane (ML) 8 units to win 8.4
Under (66.5) 2 units.

The gambling Gods owed you Tulane and delivered!

 

[oxnardca1]

The gambling Gods owed you Tulane and delivered!

OMG...... I just saw the 8 units he played!!!

Way to hit that!!!

 

[Lightning]

The gambling Gods owed you Tulane and delivered!

Very nice hit! :0008

 

[Smitty]

thank you, gentlemen. just finished watching the cotton bowl. insane game. and, yes, rocky, i agree... the gambling gods owed me that one. :lol:

 

[Smitty]

Under (54) 8 units

the gambling gods give, and they take away. the end of the rose bowl was a kick in the balls that i saw coming from a mile away. and i still couldn't put on a cup.

trying to focus on the positive... that i trusted my instinct and changed my bet to the correct side.