Oklahoma -6.5 against Auburn in their Week 4 SEC opener at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (3:30 p.m. ET on ABC). The Sooners are a solid pick to cover the 6.5-point spread in a 27-17 win, leveraging their elite defense and home-field edge against an Auburn squad that’s overmatched despite some offensive pop.
Here’s why Oklahoma’s the play:
• Dominant Defense: Oklahoma’s defense is the SEC’s stingiest so far, holding Michigan to 13 points, Temple to 3, and Illinois State to 0. They lead the conference with a 2.5% sack rate and will disrupt Auburn QB Jackson Arnold, who’s thrown for over 200 yards just once this season.
• Mateer’s Passing Edge: OU QB John Mateer has thrown for 270+ yards in each game, exploiting weaker secondaries. Auburn’s pass defense (98th nationally, 280+ yards allowed per game) gets carved up by Deion Burks and Jaren Kanak for 200+ combined yards.
• Home-Field Advantage: The Sooners are 12-6 ATS as home favorites under Brent Venables, and the Norman crowd fuels a fast start. Auburn’s 1-2 ATS on the road under Hugh Freeze struggles against OU’s third-down efficiency (45% conversion rate).
• Auburn’s Turnover Woes: The Tigers have fumbled four times in three games, and their O-line has allowed six sacks. Oklahoma’s pass rush, led by R Mason Thomas (five pressures already), forces mistakes that turn into points.
• Revenge Factor: Arnold, a former OU QB, faces his old team, but Venables’ scheme familiarity limits Auburn’s explosiveness (455 total yards per game but against weaker foes like South Alabama). OU’s red-zone efficiency (70% TD rate) seals the deal late.
Oklahoma -6.5 $224/$200 -114
Miami -6.5 against South Florida in their Week 4 matchup at Raymond James Stadium (7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN). The Hurricanes are a strong bet to cover the 6.5-point spread in a 31-20 victory, leveraging their explosive offense and improving defense against a South Florida team that’s scrappy but outclassed. Here’s why Miami’s the play:
• Cam Ward’s Heisman-Caliber Play: Miami QB Cam Ward is averaging 350+ passing yards per game with a 12:2 TD-to-INT ratio through three weeks. South Florida’s secondary (allowing 250+ passing yards per game) gets torched by Ward’s deep shots to Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George for 200+ combined yards.
• Hurricanes’ Offensive Firepower: Miami’s averaging 45 points per game, tops in the ACC, with a balanced attack (200+ rushing yards per game). USF’s front seven, which struggled against Alabama’s run game (180 yards allowed), can’t contain Damien Martinez’s ground-and-pound style.
• Defensive Improvement: Miami’s D, under Lance Guidry, has tightened up, allowing just 10 points per game since a shaky Week 1. Their pass rush (3.5 sacks per game) disrupts USF’s Byrum Brown, who’s been sacked five times already and fumbles under pressure.
• Road Dominance: The Hurricanes are 8-3 ATS on the road since Mario Cristobal took over, and their talent edge (70% blue-chip ratio per 247Sports) overwhelms USF’s Group of 5 roster in a quasi-home game (Tampa’s just a short trip). Miami’s 65% third-down conversion rate keeps drives alive.
• USF’s Overmatched Resume: South Florida is 2-1 but hasn’t faced a Power 4 foe like Miami. Their wins over Bethune-Cookman and Southern Miss (by a combined 13 points) expose inefficiencies, and their O-line’s 7% pressure rate allowed won’t hold up against Miami’s aggressive front.
The game stays competitive early with USF’s tempo (top-40 in plays per game) and Brown’s dual-threat ability, but Miami pulls away in the third quarter as Ward connects on a pair of TDs and the Canes’ D forces a late turnover. The total (around 58.5) could creep over, but Miami covers comfortably.
Miami -6.5 $280/$200 -140
YTD 1-0
Here’s why Oklahoma’s the play:
• Dominant Defense: Oklahoma’s defense is the SEC’s stingiest so far, holding Michigan to 13 points, Temple to 3, and Illinois State to 0. They lead the conference with a 2.5% sack rate and will disrupt Auburn QB Jackson Arnold, who’s thrown for over 200 yards just once this season.
• Mateer’s Passing Edge: OU QB John Mateer has thrown for 270+ yards in each game, exploiting weaker secondaries. Auburn’s pass defense (98th nationally, 280+ yards allowed per game) gets carved up by Deion Burks and Jaren Kanak for 200+ combined yards.
• Home-Field Advantage: The Sooners are 12-6 ATS as home favorites under Brent Venables, and the Norman crowd fuels a fast start. Auburn’s 1-2 ATS on the road under Hugh Freeze struggles against OU’s third-down efficiency (45% conversion rate).
• Auburn’s Turnover Woes: The Tigers have fumbled four times in three games, and their O-line has allowed six sacks. Oklahoma’s pass rush, led by R Mason Thomas (five pressures already), forces mistakes that turn into points.
• Revenge Factor: Arnold, a former OU QB, faces his old team, but Venables’ scheme familiarity limits Auburn’s explosiveness (455 total yards per game but against weaker foes like South Alabama). OU’s red-zone efficiency (70% TD rate) seals the deal late.
Oklahoma -6.5 $224/$200 -114
Miami -6.5 against South Florida in their Week 4 matchup at Raymond James Stadium (7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN). The Hurricanes are a strong bet to cover the 6.5-point spread in a 31-20 victory, leveraging their explosive offense and improving defense against a South Florida team that’s scrappy but outclassed. Here’s why Miami’s the play:
• Cam Ward’s Heisman-Caliber Play: Miami QB Cam Ward is averaging 350+ passing yards per game with a 12:2 TD-to-INT ratio through three weeks. South Florida’s secondary (allowing 250+ passing yards per game) gets torched by Ward’s deep shots to Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George for 200+ combined yards.
• Hurricanes’ Offensive Firepower: Miami’s averaging 45 points per game, tops in the ACC, with a balanced attack (200+ rushing yards per game). USF’s front seven, which struggled against Alabama’s run game (180 yards allowed), can’t contain Damien Martinez’s ground-and-pound style.
• Defensive Improvement: Miami’s D, under Lance Guidry, has tightened up, allowing just 10 points per game since a shaky Week 1. Their pass rush (3.5 sacks per game) disrupts USF’s Byrum Brown, who’s been sacked five times already and fumbles under pressure.
• Road Dominance: The Hurricanes are 8-3 ATS on the road since Mario Cristobal took over, and their talent edge (70% blue-chip ratio per 247Sports) overwhelms USF’s Group of 5 roster in a quasi-home game (Tampa’s just a short trip). Miami’s 65% third-down conversion rate keeps drives alive.
• USF’s Overmatched Resume: South Florida is 2-1 but hasn’t faced a Power 4 foe like Miami. Their wins over Bethune-Cookman and Southern Miss (by a combined 13 points) expose inefficiencies, and their O-line’s 7% pressure rate allowed won’t hold up against Miami’s aggressive front.
The game stays competitive early with USF’s tempo (top-40 in plays per game) and Brown’s dual-threat ability, but Miami pulls away in the third quarter as Ward connects on a pair of TDs and the Canes’ D forces a late turnover. The total (around 58.5) could creep over, but Miami covers comfortably.
Miami -6.5 $280/$200 -140
YTD 1-0
