QB Touchdown Over .05 System Plays

[Woodson]

Caught this system play on YouTube by Frank and going to give it a run after talking it over with Grok.

Wager: QB Alternate TD passes Over .05

Formula: Opponents allowing 1.7+ td passes per game on average Using Grok:

NFL system for QB alternate TD passes Over 0.5 (i.e., at least 1 passing TD), targeting opponents that have allowed 1.7+ passing TDs per game through Week 4 of the 2025 season, I ran the filter across all Week 5 matchups. Several qualify—here’s the full list of hits, with the relevant QB (projected starter as of Oct. 1), the opponent defense’s allowed average, and game details.

These are the only ones meeting the 1.7+ threshold.

Sunday, Oct. 5 (London, 9:30 a.m. ET - NFL Network)

• Sam Darnold (MIN) vs. CLE (allowed 2.0/game): Vikings @ Browns.

Sunday, Oct. 5 (1:00 p.m. ET)

• C.J. Stroud (HOU) vs. BAL (2.3/game): Texans @ Ravens.

• Bryce Young (CAR) vs. MIA (1.8/game): Dolphins @ Panthers.

• Gardner Minshew (LV) vs. IND (2.0/game): Raiders @ Colts.

• Daniel Jones (NYG) vs. NO (2.3/game): Giants @ Saints.

• Dak Prescott (DAL) vs. NYJ (1.8/game): Cowboys @ Jets.

• Justin Herbert (LAC) vs. WAS (1.8/game): Commanders @ Chargers.

Sunday, Oct. 5 (4:25 p.m. ET)

• Jared Goff (DET) vs. CIN (2.0/game): Lions @ Bengals.

• Joe Burrow (CIN) vs. DET (1.8/game): Lions @ Bengals (double qualifier).

• Josh Allen (BUF) vs. NE (1.8/game): Patriots @ Bills.

Monday, Oct. 6 (8:15 p.m. ET - ESPN/ABC)

• Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs. JAX (1.8/game): Chiefs @ Jaguars.

• Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) vs. DAL (2.5/game): Cowboys @ Jets.

Wasn’t expecting this many potential plays honestly.

The goal is to get a house edge. For instance a -350/100 is a 77% approx edge to win however the .05 over with opposing defenses allowing 1.7+ is a 90% win rate allowing you a 13% edge over the books.

Will keep you posted

 

[Goldylock$]

Joe Burrow (CIN) vs. DET (1.8/game): Lions @ Bengals

As much as i want it to happen, this one is not going too

 

[Woodson]

Thursday night and London game doesn’t fit system play.

1st Wager
Jaxson Dart OVER 0.5 TDs -263/100

 

[Woodson]

Nabers is out with the mcl tear. But In going to stick with the play. First-round rookie QBs in favorable spots (vs. bottom-10 defenses) hit 1+ TD passes ~68% of the time in their first 5 starts since 2015. Dart’s poise (no turnovers last week) fits.

Will wait to see how this plays out before afternoon.

Starpass in Tucson is such a nice course. Played yesterday. About a dozen mule deer followed me around the track.

 

[Woodson]

Dart pass short left to T.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. J.McAtamney extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-J.Gillan

✌️

 

[Woodson]

YTD 6-0

Live Betting

Jaxson 2 TDs -150 $100/$66

Just going to throw the winner into a live bet for entertainment. Saints will allow a big day.

 

[Woodson]

 

[Woodson]

Theo Johnson another passing TD.


So easy.


7-0 YTD

 

[Woodson]

Last play:


Three legged wager:

Josh Allen
Jared Goff
Patrick Mahomes

1+ Passing TD

$100/$139.09

That’s it for today.

 

[Woodson]

Jared Goff -148 2+ TD $50/$83.78

 

[Woodson]

(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short left to J.Gibbs for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN!!!!


8-0 YTD

3 leg wager 1/3 hit. Still need Mahommes and Allen to throw 1 TD anytime to go perfect today. 👍🏼

 

[Woodson]

P.Mahomes pass short right to T.Kelce for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

3rd leg hits for the win.

Nice $139 score brings season 9-0 it’s on listed plays.