WE CAME FOR THE GOALS !!! - ALWAYS OVER / NEVER UNDER 2025/2026

Crookity

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Didn't get the sweep but content with taking money from 4 of 5. I put this for mid week.

UCL
AJAX/INTER OVER 2.5 -138
 

Crookity

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I thought that inter/ajax was gonna cash. They had 44 minutes to get a 3rd and stalled out.

riding with this one today

MAN CITY/NAPOLI OVER 2.5 -138
 
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Crookity

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Gala game was easy. Napoli red card off the hop did no favors. Found the only under the board fml.
 

Crookity

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I'm feeling much better about things, but still waiting for a serious run. This Newcastle game is about to cost me a 37-1 overs parlay FML
 

Crookity

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Just as I thought things were coming together the wheels have fallen off the bus. Alot of these haven't even been close. I am sorry to anyone that I have influenced. I lost the mojo. This is by far the worst start I have ever had to a season. I am doing nobody any good right now . Take care guys its been a nice run :(
 
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TurdofDoom

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I haven’t followed like I said I would. It’s on me. Do your process, crunch those numbers, eat some shrooms then make a call. I’ve won more than I’ve lost with you my man. If you crank it back up, I’m dipping my toe in the water.
 
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Crookity

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I am 43 years and have been betting on sports for over 30 years. I started with canadian govt run proline racket, buying tickets from the vietnamese convinence store owner putting down football parlays when I was in grade 7 - 8. When i was 13 years old i gave my dad $200 and convinced him to open me an offshore account at Intertops lol . Nobody my age even knew what an offshore was. I told him if i lost it i would never ask him to do it again. I turned the $200 to $1000 and never looked back. We all have our ups and downs, losing is part of the business. I can say i went through the most frustrating 2-3 month stretch in Sports betting that i can remember in all those years. Much of it was soccer plays, but there were other beats mixed in as well, very frustrating. With that said , I took some time off here towards the break to assess things and I am in a better head space. Anyone who has been following knows that some of the best weeks have come after international break. I feel good and I am going back to the roots and breaking some of this down. It helps the capping for sure to lay it all out.

all there were played a few days ago, but I see much of it remains the same

BUNDESLIA
MAINZ/LEVERKUSEN OVER 2.5 -125
Both teams come in with beefy xG #'s. Mainz is near the bottom in goals scored, but I chalk up a bit of that to some bad luck. In fact Mainz is #2 in the Bundesliga in xG overall at 1.55 !! Leverkusen comes in at #8. We know Leverkusen can fill it up on their day, and they have the 4th most goals scored in the league. They have beenhaving success on the road, with 2 goals or more being scored in their last 4 times out. They have also conceded 6 goals in their last 3 on the road! Mainz lack of goal scoring is a definitely a concern. They have already been blanked at home 3 times this year. I am trusting they have enough chances to net one behind the home support, and I think Leverkusen is good for 2. Mainz has high xGA, and they just let up 4 goals to Hamburger SV! I see potential for multi goal game from both squads.

HEIDENHEIM/BREMEN OVER 2.5/3 -110
Play on 2 poor defensive clubs. Bremen has given up the second most goals in the league, they on average let in 2.33 per game. As expected they are also top of the league in xGA. Heidenheim isn't far behind, and they give up 1.83 per game , and they are not good on their travels. Here are the recent scorelines in this match up: 4-1, 3-3, 2-1, 4-2,2-1, 3-0. Heidenheim has conceded at home 5 games in a row going back to last season, and let in a goal in their last 6 matches going back to last season. I can see both teams scoring multiple goals here. This should be an open game with plenty of quality chances.

N.FOREST/CHELSEA OVER 2.5 -138
Chelsea has the 4th best xG in the league and they have scored the 5th most goals in the EPL, they can put the ball in the net. Forest is similiar to Mainz above in the fact that they are near dead last in goals scored, but they are top of the charts in xG. Forest is 3rd best in the EPL in home xG and i can pair that with Chelsea who is one the best road teams in getting chances. They are averaging over 2.5 goals per game on their travels best in the league and top 3 xgA. All of this is complemented with the defensive metrics that point to opportunities at goals scoring. Chelsea and Nottingham are in the bottom 5 for xGA - chelsea 3rd worst in the league, and Forest 5th worst. Chelsea games have gone over 4 of the last 5 , and Forest has given up 2 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches. I see goals here.

CP/AFC BOURNEMOUTH OVER 2.5 -110
Again im going to the xG metrics because that paints a picture of how many quality chances the teams produce. I have another 2 teams in the top of the charts in XG overall with AFCB coming in #5 overall , and CP is #7. They are ranking pretty much the same for goals scored overall. CP has scored in 9 of their last 10 home games, and AFCB has scored in 20 of the last 21 games on the road! The historical matchups here have gone UNDER - 9 times in a row. Some of that is when the clubs were piss poor, but even the recent matchups have been 0-0, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2. Proceed with caution here as this could turn into a tight 1-1 type of affair. Im going with the gut on this I think it has the making for a good game.

SERIE A
ATALANTA/LAZIO OVER 2.5 -115
This one pits to high scoring clubs against each other. Atalanta is averaging 1.83 per game good for 3rd best in the Serie A, and Lazio right behind them with 1.67 per game in the 4th best position. No surprise that they are both near the top in overall xG. Atalanta is actually the best in the league at xGA at home at over 2.00 goals per game - 5th overall in actual goals scored. Lazio is playing loose at the back, they are giving up chances and are 4th worst in the Serie A. Atalanta is going to get their chances and can be counted on to score. Atalanta has scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 home games. They don't give up a ton of chances, but Lazio should find the net here. They have also has popped 3 their last 2 times out. A

Im also playing
FIORENTINA/ACM -125
TOTTENHAM/VILLA -125
FRANKFURT/STUTGART +3 -105
and looking at INTER/ROMA but I need to get to those later.

let's have a weekend!!
 
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Crookity

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I haven’t followed like I said I would. It’s on me. Do your process, crunch those numbers, eat some shrooms then make a call. I’ve won more than I’ve lost with you my man. If you crank it back up, I’m dipping my toe in the water.
whats up my guy , I am back on the horse lol let's ride brooooo lolol

Good luck whatever you bet this weekend turdo
 
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