Is Skubal the play?
- Thread starter T
- Start date
Not just public money. At DraftKings the volume of bets and $$ is pretty even in both cases but at Circa where more sharp money lives, the # Bets are 56%-44% for Detroit while the Handle is 86%-14% for Seattle. So the $$ are driving the line, it appears. Not too surprising since Skubal is really good but not so much against Seattle and he is trying to keep that stagnant Detroit offense alive.
Just a few thoughts, didn't mean to be negative for those on Detroit. Good luck whatever you decide.
Just a few thoughts, didn't mean to be negative for those on Detroit. Good luck whatever you decide.
- Sep 1, 2012
- 10,302
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It's Tarik Skubal and the Tigers vs. Cal Raleigh and the Mariners tonight for all the marbles in Game 5 of the American League Division Series (FOX, 8:08 ET).
Facing Skubal in a win-or-go-home postseason game is daunting. But the Mariners have triumphed all three times they've faced the Detroit ace in 2025, including Game 2 of this series. Can the Mariners’ hitters find a way to do the improbable and get to Skubal for a fourth time in a single year, or will Skubal shut them down with an ALCS berth on the line?
Here are three keys that will decide whether Skubal wins Game 5, or the Mariners do:
1) Can the Mariners keep punishing Skubal's (few) mistakes?
The simplest reason the Mariners have been able to beat Skubal is: They've hit home runs off him.
The Mariners have homered off Skubal in all three games they've faced him this season. All their home runs have been off pitches Skubal left in the heart of the strike zone: a hanging slider to Dylan Mooreon April 2, a hanging changeup to Julio Rodríguez on July 11, another hanging slider and a sinker right down the middle to Jorge Polanco in Game 2.
That's a thing the Mariners have been very good at. Seattle has hit 162 home runs this season against pitches in the heart of the zone, tied for the fourth-most of any team behind only the Yankees, Dodgers and Phillies. On the other hand, Skubal is still dominant in the zone, with the most whiffs induced on heart-of-zone pitches of any pitcher this year, so punishing him for a fourth time won't be easy.
2) What can Raleigh and Polanco do from the right side?
The Mariners have two big switch-hitters in their lineup in Raleigh and Polanco. Both have made huge strides from the right side of the plate this season, which matters a lot when you have to hit against Skubal.
Raleigh had a 1.032 OPS and 22 home runs vs. lefties in the regular season, and Polanco batted .305 with an .888 OPS vs. lefties.
But Skubal has had Raleigh's number. Raleigh is 1-for-9 with five strikeouts and an insane 73% swing-and-miss rate (16 whiffs on 22 swings) vs. Skubal this year.
Polcano on the other hand? He's seen Skubal shockingly well. It's not just the two homers in Game 2. Polcano hasn't swung and missed a single time against Skubal this year, making contact on all 12 of his swings. Skubal leads MLB with 550 whiffs induced in 2025, but he hasn't gotten Polanco yet.
3) Will Skubal's underlying dominance bring back dominant results?
“zero wins against the Mariners” hasn't really been as bad as it looks. He’s pitched better against them than his results show.
For example, Skubal has induced a 36% swing-and-miss rate against the Mariners in his three starts, which is his fifth-best mark against any one opponent in 2025. He's also running a 30% strikeout rate against them, which is basically an elite-level K rate.
And even in Game 2, his stat line was seven innings, two runs, nine K's -- the Mariners had to scratch and claw to win the game.
So we can easily see Skubal racking up strikeouts and shutting down the Mariners in Game 5. But the Mariners just might have one more win in them, too, if things break right.
Facing Skubal in a win-or-go-home postseason game is daunting. But the Mariners have triumphed all three times they've faced the Detroit ace in 2025, including Game 2 of this series. Can the Mariners’ hitters find a way to do the improbable and get to Skubal for a fourth time in a single year, or will Skubal shut them down with an ALCS berth on the line?
Here are three keys that will decide whether Skubal wins Game 5, or the Mariners do:
1) Can the Mariners keep punishing Skubal's (few) mistakes?
The simplest reason the Mariners have been able to beat Skubal is: They've hit home runs off him.
The Mariners have homered off Skubal in all three games they've faced him this season. All their home runs have been off pitches Skubal left in the heart of the strike zone: a hanging slider to Dylan Mooreon April 2, a hanging changeup to Julio Rodríguez on July 11, another hanging slider and a sinker right down the middle to Jorge Polanco in Game 2.
That's a thing the Mariners have been very good at. Seattle has hit 162 home runs this season against pitches in the heart of the zone, tied for the fourth-most of any team behind only the Yankees, Dodgers and Phillies. On the other hand, Skubal is still dominant in the zone, with the most whiffs induced on heart-of-zone pitches of any pitcher this year, so punishing him for a fourth time won't be easy.
2) What can Raleigh and Polanco do from the right side?
The Mariners have two big switch-hitters in their lineup in Raleigh and Polanco. Both have made huge strides from the right side of the plate this season, which matters a lot when you have to hit against Skubal.
Raleigh had a 1.032 OPS and 22 home runs vs. lefties in the regular season, and Polanco batted .305 with an .888 OPS vs. lefties.
But Skubal has had Raleigh's number. Raleigh is 1-for-9 with five strikeouts and an insane 73% swing-and-miss rate (16 whiffs on 22 swings) vs. Skubal this year.
Polcano on the other hand? He's seen Skubal shockingly well. It's not just the two homers in Game 2. Polcano hasn't swung and missed a single time against Skubal this year, making contact on all 12 of his swings. Skubal leads MLB with 550 whiffs induced in 2025, but he hasn't gotten Polanco yet.
3) Will Skubal's underlying dominance bring back dominant results?
“zero wins against the Mariners” hasn't really been as bad as it looks. He’s pitched better against them than his results show.
For example, Skubal has induced a 36% swing-and-miss rate against the Mariners in his three starts, which is his fifth-best mark against any one opponent in 2025. He's also running a 30% strikeout rate against them, which is basically an elite-level K rate.
And even in Game 2, his stat line was seven innings, two runs, nine K's -- the Mariners had to scratch and claw to win the game.
So we can easily see Skubal racking up strikeouts and shutting down the Mariners in Game 5. But the Mariners just might have one more win in them, too, if things break right.
- Sep 1, 2012
- 10,302
- 1,017
- 113
Great stuff Yanno and much appreciated!Not just public money. At DraftKings the volume of bets and $$ is pretty even in both cases but at Circa where more sharp money lives, the # Bets are 56%-44% for Detroit while the Handle is 86%-14% for Seattle. So the $$ are driving the line, it appears. Not too surprising since Skubal is really good but not so much against Seattle and he is trying to keep that stagnant Detroit offense alive.
Just a few thoughts, didn't mean to be negative for those on Detroit. Good luck whatever you decide.
