WE CAME FOR THE GOALS !!! - ALWAYS OVER / NEVER UNDER 2025/2026

[jdg226]

whats up my guy , I am back on the horse lol let's ride brooooo lolol

Good luck whatever you bet this weekend turdo

Welcome back.

 

[Crookity]

Early game looks like a dud

Adding
FULHAM/ARSENAL OVER 2.5 +100

 

[Crookity]

BOOOOOOOOOOOOM CHELSEA !!

 

[Crookity]

Early game looks like a dud

Adding
FULHAM/ARSENAL OVER 2.5 +100

Arsenal is second in the EPL with 2.00 goals per game , their goal scoring drops on the road but the xG away is still top 5 in the league. The over 2.5 has cashed in 5 of the last 6 times these teams played. Fulham has scored at home in 9 of their last 10 matches. The Gunners comes in to this game clicking offensively. They have scored 2 goals their last 4 times out in all competitions, and Fulham has just given up 6 goals in their last 2 times out. They have had some issues at the back. Give me Trossard, Gyokeres, Saka up front to cause trouble. I think behidn the home crowd the Cottagers can get on the scoresheet, and I am backing Arsenal to continue their offensive momentum.

 

[Crookity]

Today was a good one, took down 4 of 5. I hit a big Bundesliga parlay as well. I will try to get some time to write up tomorrow's slate.

 

[TurdofDoom]

I got in on those first premier league plays. Thank you!

 

[Crookity]

I am 43 years and have been betting on sports for over 30 years. I started with canadian govt run proline racket, buying tickets from the vietnamese convinence store owner putting down football parlays when I was in grade 7 - 8. When i was 13 years old i gave my dad $200 and convinced him to open me an offshore account at Intertops lol . Nobody my age even knew what an offshore was. I told him if i lost it i would never ask him to do it again. I turned the $200 to $1000 and never looked back. We all have our ups and downs, losing is part of the business. I can say i went through the most frustrating 2-3 month stretch in Sports betting that i can remember in all those years. Much of it was soccer plays, but there were other beats mixed in as well, very frustrating. With that said , I took some time off here towards the break to assess things and I am in a better head space. Anyone who has been following knows that some of the best weeks have come after international break. I feel good and I am going back to the roots and breaking some of this down. It helps the capping for sure to lay it all out.

all there were played a few days ago, but I see much of it remains the same

BUNDESLIA
MAINZ/LEVERKUSEN OVER 2.5 -125
Both teams come in with beefy xG #'s. Mainz is near the bottom in goals scored, but I chalk up a bit of that to some bad luck. In fact Mainz is #2 in the Bundesliga in xG overall at 1.55 !! Leverkusen comes in at #8. We know Leverkusen can fill it up on their day, and they have the 4th most goals scored in the league. They have beenhaving success on the road, with 2 goals or more being scored in their last 4 times out. They have also conceded 6 goals in their last 3 on the road! Mainz lack of goal scoring is a definitely a concern. They have already been blanked at home 3 times this year. I am trusting they have enough chances to net one behind the home support, and I think Leverkusen is good for 2. Mainz has high xGA, and they just let up 4 goals to Hamburger SV! I see potential for multi goal game from both squads.

HEIDENHEIM/BREMEN OVER 2.5/3 -110
Play on 2 poor defensive clubs. Bremen has given up the second most goals in the league, they on average let in 2.33 per game. As expected they are also top of the league in xGA. Heidenheim isn't far behind, and they give up 1.83 per game , and they are not good on their travels. Here are the recent scorelines in this match up: 4-1, 3-3, 2-1, 4-2,2-1, 3-0. Heidenheim has conceded at home 5 games in a row going back to last season, and let in a goal in their last 6 matches going back to last season. I can see both teams scoring multiple goals here. This should be an open game with plenty of quality chances.

N.FOREST/CHELSEA OVER 2.5 -138
Chelsea has the 4th best xG in the league and they have scored the 5th most goals in the EPL, they can put the ball in the net. Forest is similiar to Mainz above in the fact that they are near dead last in goals scored, but they are top of the charts in xG. Forest is 3rd best in the EPL in home xG and i can pair that with Chelsea who is one the best road teams in getting chances. They are averaging over 2.5 goals per game on their travels best in the league and top 3 xgA. All of this is complemented with the defensive metrics that point to opportunities at goals scoring. Chelsea and Nottingham are in the bottom 5 for xGA - chelsea 3rd worst in the league, and Forest 5th worst. Chelsea games have gone over 4 of the last 5 , and Forest has given up 2 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches. I see goals here.

CP/AFC BOURNEMOUTH OVER 2.5 -110
Again im going to the xG metrics because that paints a picture of how many quality chances the teams produce. I have another 2 teams in the top of the charts in XG overall with AFCB coming in #5 overall , and CP is #7. They are ranking pretty much the same for goals scored overall. CP has scored in 9 of their last 10 home games, and AFCB has scored in 20 of the last 21 games on the road! The historical matchups here have gone UNDER - 9 times in a row. Some of that is when the clubs were piss poor, but even the recent matchups have been 0-0, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2. Proceed with caution here as this could turn into a tight 1-1 type of affair. Im going with the gut on this I think it has the making for a good game.

SERIE A
ATALANTA/LAZIO OVER 2.5 -115
This one pits to high scoring clubs against each other. Atalanta is averaging 1.83 per game good for 3rd best in the Serie A, and Lazio right behind them with 1.67 per game in the 4th best position. No surprise that they are both near the top in overall xG. Atalanta is actually the best in the league at xGA at home at over 2.00 goals per game - 5th overall in actual goals scored. Lazio is playing loose at the back, they are giving up chances and are 4th worst in the Serie A. Atalanta is going to get their chances and can be counted on to score. Atalanta has scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 home games. They don't give up a ton of chances, but Lazio should find the net here. They have also has popped 3 their last 2 times out. A

Im also playing
FIORENTINA/ACM -125
TOTTENHAM/VILLA -125
FRANKFURT/STUTGART +3 -105
and looking at INTER/ROMA but I need to get to those later.

let's have a weekend!!

I'm off ACM/FIO way too many notable offensive injuries here.

SUNDAY

EPL
TOTT/VILLA OVER 2.5 -125

SERIE A
ATA/LAZIO OVER 2.5 -125 as written up above. The line is more affordable now as it's-110

FREIBURG/FRANKFURT OVER 3 +105
got a better price. If the 2.5 comes down to -125-138 I may add a bit to this one.

 

[Crookity]

I'm off ACM/FIO way too many notable offensive injuries here.

SUNDAY

EPL
TOTT/VILLA OVER 2.5 -125

SERIE A
ATA/LAZIO OVER 2.5 -125 as written up above. The line is more affordable now as it's-110

FREIBURG/FRANKFURT OVER 3 +105
got a better price. If the 2.5 comes down to -125-138 I may add a bit to this one.

FREIBURG/FRANKFURT OVER
In a rush but I'll make it quick. Frankfurt has gone over 3 in 14 of their last 15 games! They are averaging nearly 3 goals per game , top of the charts in scoring , xG and they have poor xga. In fact Frankfurt has conceded the most goals in the league ! Freiburg has very poor offensive metrics which is keeping this number down. I think the home crowd gives them a lift , and Frankfurt gives us enough chances for Frei to net on their own pitch.

 

[Crookity]

solid weekend trying to keep the momentum here.

UCL - WEDNESDAY
MONACO/TOTTENHAM OVER 2.5/3 -125
SPORTING/MARSEILLE OVER 2.5/3 -125

I am not opposed to taking these games at Over 3 + money. If they go +105 or higher i might be inclined to top up at those rates. I see goals in these games which should be pretty open. I am looking at a few others and will post if I take any other singles mid week in UCL.

 

[Crookity]

solid weekend trying to keep the momentum here.

UCL - WEDNESDAY
MONACO/TOTTENHAM OVER 2.5/3 -125
SPORTING/MARSEILLE OVER 2.5/3 -125

I am not opposed to taking these games at Over 3 + money. If they go +105 or higher i might be inclined to top up at those rates. I see goals in these games which should be pretty open. I am looking at a few others and will post if I take any other singles mid week in UCL.

Damn monaco/Tottenham was a flop!! I feel fortunate to salvage a bit of that back with the strong Sporting second half. Not sure if I'm playing Europa. Gonna look deeper at the weekend slate.