LA Bowl

Smitty

Smitty

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Jan 5, 2005
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bowl season? seriously?

ok, gonna start with an FCS selection. no extra charge to you! i like illinois st on the ML (+125). maybe this one is too easy, even with all the travel for the redbirds. the box score for their win last week at the fargodome (as 25-point dogs) is ridiculous. the redbirds threw 5 INTs (including a TAINT), gave up a punt return TD, and allowed a 78-yard TD pass on ND St's first play from scrimmage. and yet they basically dominated the game. they only allowed 101 yards the rest of the game, while racking up 422 yards themselves. they picked up 23 first downs, and only allowed 6(!!). they gave up 59 yards rushing for the game. THIS IS AT THE FARGODOME. ND St was undefeated going into that game.

after all that... the real reason i like illinois st today? they've only lost one road game all year. and that was the season-opener. at oklahoma. these guys are road warriors. they are 7-0 on the road at FCS opponents.
 
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rocky mountain

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Smitty said:
bowl season? seriously?

ok, gonna start with an FCS selection. no extra charge to you! i like illinois st on the ML (+125). maybe this one is too easy, even with all the travel for the redbirds. the box score for their win last week at the fargodome (as 25-point dogs) is ridiculous. the redbirds threw 5 INTs (including a TAINT), gave up a punt return TD, and allowed a 78-yard TD pass on ND St's first play from scrimmage. and yet they basically dominated the game. they only allowed 101 yards the rest of the game, while racking up 422 yards themselves. they picked up 23 first downs, and only allowed 6(!!). they gave up 59 yards rushing for the game. THIS IS AT THE FARGODOME. ND St was undefeated going into that game.

after all that... the real reason i like illinois st today? they've only lost one road game all year. and that was the season-opener. at oklahoma. these guys are road warriors. they are 7-0 on the road at FCS opponents.
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Smitty

Smitty

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Jan 5, 2005
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Upstate NY
quick note for bowl season... obviously who is playing and who isn't tends to be a fluid situation. i try to use at least 2 sources to verify when someone is opting out. that said, i'm sure i'll still get some wrong. if anyone thinks i'm posting bad info, please let me know.

maybe, just maybe... with the transfer portal moved out to january, it won't be as chaotic this year.

in fact... doesn't look like there's many in the first game. i only see one opt-out for boise st... LT Kage Casey, who has declared for the draft. a'marion mccoy, who tied for the team lead in INTs (he had 4 of their 13 on the season, returning 2 for TDs) missed the last 2 games with an injury. i can't find anything that says he's NOT playing today, but he's not listed on the depth chart that was posted 3 days ago.

hey, just found this. looks like a great source, if it's accurate. https://www.cfbdepth.com/ It appears the info is sometimes slow to load.

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washington doesn't appear to have any opt-outs, but they do have some starters listed as questionable, in particular in the defensive backfield.

i don't really see a motivation edge either way here. in the past, boise would have been fired up for a chance at the big boys from the state next door. but it doesn't feel like that's the case any more. if anything, boise started the season hoping to make the playoffs. so they are probably more disappointed to be here.

washington should have the edge in the ground game. both teams average about 4.6 yards/carry. however, washington only allows 3.4/carry (19th in the country) . boise allows 4.9/carry. only 19 teams gave up more. sophomore adam mohammed took over the bulk of the carries for the huskies late in the season, and he's responded with 213 yards on 35 carries (6.1/rush) the last two games. i look for him to have a big game.

one last stat... maybe the best (and definitely simplest) overall stats is yards per play. washington averages 6.4 vs 5.9 for boise. defensively, washington allows 4.8/play while boise gives up 5.4.

i don't see any reason to back boise st today.

washington (-9.5) 3 units.

this season i've been playing around with parlays, with mixed results. i'll post a few. if they're winning, i'll keep posting.

washington -6.5/Under 58.5 1 to win 1.3
 
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