hmmmm... that's odd. lemme check...
ok, sorry. it's the IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl.
as usual, let's start with who's NOT playing.
troy - CB kaleno levine has declared for the draft and won't play. starting RB tae meadows is out. he averaged 4.4 yards/carry for a team that doesn't run the ball well. speaking of not running the ball well.... the Troy OL, which was already banged up, is now missing 2 more starters. LG paul bowling, who started the season as the starting C, and started the last 3 games at LG, is in the portal and won't play. and starting LT eli russ was injured in the sunbelt championship game, and will not play today. QB goose crowder (seriously? goose crowder? ok.) was also njured in the sunbelt championship game, but practiced this week and is expected to play. that said, his backup played about half the season and the two are nearly identical statistically.
jax st - RT reggie jackson (what???), who may be their best lineman, is in the portal and out for the game. there does appear to be quite a drop-off with his backup, nate smith. LG adrian gumm is also out. per the rankings on cfbdepth.com (i have NO idea if they are any good), his backup cam griffin is nearly as good a pass blocker and a much better run blocker.
jax st will run the ball. and run it some more. only navy, AF, and utah picked up more yards/game than the gamecocks. and they average 5.5/carry, which is 13th in the country. RB cam cook has topped 100 yards in all but 3 games this year and QB caden creel has rushed for 100+ in their last 5 games. troy gives up 4.7/rush, which is 106th in the country. freshman creel is ok throwing the ball, completing 61%, with 8 TDs and 4 INTs, while averaging 7 yards/att.
as i mentioned earlier, troy can't run the ball (2.8 yards/carry, 130th in the country). well, they can't throw the ball well either. their offense is just anemic. they average 4.7 yards/play. only 8 teams are worse. jacksonville st is meh against the run (middle of the pack nationally) and poor against the pass. but it's hard to imagine a weak troy offense taking advantage, especially with a decimated offensive line.
so how the hell did troy, with an ok defense and very poor offense, reach the sun belt championship game? good question. my first thought was turnovers. but they are practically dead even in that department. (jacksonville st is +9, 17th in the country) obviously the sun belt was weak, but still hard to figure how this team was successful this year.
one last note - and i mention this every year - teams with a head coach in his first year on the job have a poor record in bowls. last year they were 3-6 SU and 1-7-1 ATS. charles kelly is in his first year leading jacksonville st.
that coaching stat is so damn hard to overlook. but i have to bet the team that can dominate the game on the ground.
and while i was handicapping, the fucking line has been MOVING. son of a bitch.
jacksonville st (-2.5) 3 units
and let's try a parlay....
jacksonville st ML/1H Over 20.5 1 to win 1.6
ok, sorry. it's the IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl.
as usual, let's start with who's NOT playing.
troy - CB kaleno levine has declared for the draft and won't play. starting RB tae meadows is out. he averaged 4.4 yards/carry for a team that doesn't run the ball well. speaking of not running the ball well.... the Troy OL, which was already banged up, is now missing 2 more starters. LG paul bowling, who started the season as the starting C, and started the last 3 games at LG, is in the portal and won't play. and starting LT eli russ was injured in the sunbelt championship game, and will not play today. QB goose crowder (seriously? goose crowder? ok.) was also njured in the sunbelt championship game, but practiced this week and is expected to play. that said, his backup played about half the season and the two are nearly identical statistically.
jax st - RT reggie jackson (what???), who may be their best lineman, is in the portal and out for the game. there does appear to be quite a drop-off with his backup, nate smith. LG adrian gumm is also out. per the rankings on cfbdepth.com (i have NO idea if they are any good), his backup cam griffin is nearly as good a pass blocker and a much better run blocker.
jax st will run the ball. and run it some more. only navy, AF, and utah picked up more yards/game than the gamecocks. and they average 5.5/carry, which is 13th in the country. RB cam cook has topped 100 yards in all but 3 games this year and QB caden creel has rushed for 100+ in their last 5 games. troy gives up 4.7/rush, which is 106th in the country. freshman creel is ok throwing the ball, completing 61%, with 8 TDs and 4 INTs, while averaging 7 yards/att.
as i mentioned earlier, troy can't run the ball (2.8 yards/carry, 130th in the country). well, they can't throw the ball well either. their offense is just anemic. they average 4.7 yards/play. only 8 teams are worse. jacksonville st is meh against the run (middle of the pack nationally) and poor against the pass. but it's hard to imagine a weak troy offense taking advantage, especially with a decimated offensive line.
so how the hell did troy, with an ok defense and very poor offense, reach the sun belt championship game? good question. my first thought was turnovers. but they are practically dead even in that department. (jacksonville st is +9, 17th in the country) obviously the sun belt was weak, but still hard to figure how this team was successful this year.
one last note - and i mention this every year - teams with a head coach in his first year on the job have a poor record in bowls. last year they were 3-6 SU and 1-7-1 ATS. charles kelly is in his first year leading jacksonville st.
that coaching stat is so damn hard to overlook. but i have to bet the team that can dominate the game on the ground.
and while i was handicapping, the fucking line has been MOVING. son of a bitch.
jacksonville st (-2.5) 3 units
and let's try a parlay....
jacksonville st ML/1H Over 20.5 1 to win 1.6
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