1/1 Playoff Games

[Smitty]

"Orange Bowl"
As expected, running late. I'll try to keep it brief.

First off, I think TT is legit. Especially the defense. First year DC Shiel Wood has done a hell of a job. They give up 2.3 yards/rush, second in the country. Last year, they allowed 4.8. That's an incredible improvement. Oh, and they're 6th in the country, allowing 5.5 yards/pass att. Last year that number was 8.7. They're led by the linebackers. Rodriguez is the epitome of a college linebacker. And Bailey has 13.5 sacks. Tech allowed less than 10 points their last 4 games, including 2 against a solid BYU squad. And their only loss this year was with their backup qb.

On the other side, I need to see Oregon prove it. Their best win is still 18-16 over Iowa. Hardly impressive. I'm interested to see how QB Moore plays when things aren't coming easily.

One note on the TT kicking game... Harrington has been inconsistent from 40+ (13-for-13 less than 40). He's 9-for-14, including 2 misses in the Big 12 Championship Game. On the other hand, he did make a 58-yarder at Utah.

Possible big factor... this is a noon start for a team from the west coast.

Texas Tech 1Q (+.5) fuck, this went from -135 to -160 at the book I use the most. Still available at -145 at my second choice. 5.8 to win 4.
Oregon 1Q TT Under (3.5) 3.6 to win 3
Texas Tech 1H (+.5) 2.4 to win 2
Texas Tech (ML) 6.3 to win 6

And, fuck it, let's have a little fun...

Oregon TT Under (20.5) 2 to win 3.5
Parlay TT +4.5/Under 55.5 3 to win 3.7

 

[ejthree]

My friends hit 1st qtr early today no turnovers by Tech we will win this one...GL Smitty

 

[rocky mountain]

Like texas tech . also played under 13.5 first quarter. -167
big, like $330 big
and Tech +7.5 and under 58.5 -140

 

[rocky mountain]

My friends hit 1st qtr early today no turnovers by Tech we will win this one...GL Smitty

Both teams good special teams, hopefully a little feeling out first quarter and the long pass attempts will be shut down early!

 

[rocky mountain]

Texas Tech’s special teams have been a standout unit nationally in 2025, with great kickoff return success and defense, multiple blocked kicks, and strong field‑goal production. �
Midland Reporter-Telegram
Oregon’s special teams are highly rated analytically, particularly in coverage and return efficiency, and have shown explosive punt return ability. �

 

[Smitty]

My friends hit 1st qtr early today no turnovers by Tech we will win this one...GL Smitty

always a little worrisome, playing the team off the long layoff in the first quarter. but that's tempered a little by playing against the west coast team in a noon start on the east coast. and, shit, that line was getting pounded. it's come back down a little.

here we fucking go.

 

[rocky mountain]

Time going soooooo slow in this track meet.

 

[ejthree]

Oregon in full control IMO...

 

[rocky mountain]

Oregon in full control IMO...

Not so fast EJ!!!

 

[rocky mountain]

Im cheering for your under-3.5 Smitty, huge testicles on this one!!

 

[rocky mountain]

I cashed out on my tech and under , 38 difficult yards outside the bo Jackson tecmo run.

Like texas tech . also played under 13.5 first quarter. -167
big, like $330 big
and Tech +7.5 and under 58.5 -140

 

[Smitty]

just as i was about to start typing, i saw TT got a pick. hopefully they can do something with it, but i have no reason to believe they will.

this loss is completely on morton and the offensive staff. morton has, obviously, been god-awful bad. he's seeing ghosts. but the play calling? holy fuck. almost every pass has been outside the hashes. and he ain't making those throws today. figure it the fuck out.

moving on....

 

[Dr Feelgood]

Better investigate that TT QB

 

[boomer1]

Better investigate that TT QB

TT not only is in the playoffs but got a1st round bye 😂. I’ve got to go back and review their schedule.

 

[yyz]

The sad part of this is, the winners of these shitty games get to play again......

 

[ejthree]

TT not only is in the playoffs but got a1st round bye 😂. I’ve got to go back and review their schedule.

SOS in the 70's

 

[rocky mountain]

Better investigate that TT QB

Oregon defense is loaded + 1st game he was behind and best defense he faced. He got unveiled. But yeah he couldn't hit the ocean today.

 

[Smitty]

"Rose Bowl"
Ok, I'm definitely betting on Indiana getting off to a slow start.

Big loss for the Hoosiers, as DL Stephen Daley was injured against Ohio St and is out for this game. He's a run-stuffer and had 5.5 sacks. They may not need the run-stuffing against Alabama's surprisingly feeble ground game, but all hands on deck is always preferable.

I think DeBoer gets a bad rap... nobody is going to fill Nick Saban's shoes. He's a decent coach. However, I'll take Cignetti over just about anyone now, so advantage Indiana.

If this is a close, low-scoring game, Indiana has a big edge in the kicking game. Radicic is 15-of-16 this year. However, his long is only 46 yards. Talty for Alabama always looks scared to me. He's just shaky. He is 15-of-22 with two of those misses under 30 yards. And his long is just 48 yards.

In fact, somebody correct me if I'm wrong (Boomer?), but it seems to me that Alabama's special teams have been shaky overall. At least against Oklahoma.

One note I should have mentioned earlier... every single team I bet in the first quarter... the other team WILL get the ball first. It's a given.

Alabama 1Q (+2.5) 4.6 to win 4
Indiana 1Q TT Under (6.5) 4.6 to win 4
Alabama 1H (+4.5) 3.6 to win 3

I really like Indiana to win this game. But I can't lay 7.5 on a team off the long layoff right now. 0-6 is a strong trend, and it's not random.

My thought is to maybe play Indiana after they fall behind.

 

[Barber]

Great insight and info. How do you see Indiana coming into this being off? Geez it seems all these teams coming off a bye week are losing? I very disappointed in Tech but very impressed with the Ducks. Good luck and happy new year.

 

[Smitty]

TT not only is in the playoffs but got a1st round bye 😂. I’ve got to go back and review their schedule.

they dominated the state of utah this year.

they crushed a decent BYU team twice and went into utah with a backup qb and dominated a pretty good utah team. it ain't the SEC, but i'd put those wins up against any of oregon's wins.

the (roughly) 25-day layoff is fucking tough. the teams who get the bye are double-penalized. first, the long layoff. second, they miss out on an extra home game that 4 other teams get.