Contrarian MLB 2026

[Kevy]

Was reading an influencer on X/Twitter
saying that Contrarian betting does not
work anymore. That it's bull shit and a
waste of time in 2026.

Going to look at some of the web sites
that provide betting ticket and money
percentages every day and see if I can
challenge myself to prove that it might
still work or not. A challenge accepted.

Will start with experimenting with two
units (2*) a play and go up or down unit
wise from there to one unit or three units.

Wednesday 5/27/2026

Fading A Public Dog

2*New York Mets ML -112
(Abbott-Brazoban)

Seen that Cincy Reds are a popular dog for
both tickets and handle. Back in the day we
would fade a public dog. I stared at the bet
submit button for about five minutes working
up the courage to bet on the Mets. But I had
to. It had to be done. I had no choice.

 

[Smitty]

I stared at the bet
submit button for about five minutes working
up the courage to bet on the Mets. But I had
to. It had to be done. I had no choice.

Seems to me that the harder it is to make a bet, the more likely it is to win.

GL, sir.

 

[Plegacy]

Was reading an influencer on X/Twitter
saying that Contrarian betting does not
work anymore. That it's bull shit and a
waste of time in 2026.

Going to look at some of the web sites
that provide betting ticket and money
percentages every day and see if I can
challenge myself to prove that it might
still work or not. A challenge accepted.

Will start with experimenting with two
units (2*) a play and go up or down unit
wise from there to one unit or three units.

Wednesday 5/27/2026

Fading A Public Dog

2*New York Mets ML -112
(Abbott-Brazoban)

Seen that Cincy Reds are a popular dog for
both tickets and handle. Back in the day we
would fade a public dog. I stared at the bet
submit button for about five minutes working
up the courage to bet on the Mets. But I had
to. It had to be done. I had no choice.

I'm starting to think ur right the way this is going

 

[Bombs]

Things change over time. Straight contrarian wagering as an absolute strategy is no longer profitable. There are spots in which it can be of value, however, and there also tons of "sharp square" plays where the contrarian side is actually the "square" play i.e. everyone trying to be a contrarian. Jord brings this up frequently.

 

[Kevy]

Things change over time. Straight contrarian wagering as an absolute strategy is no longer profitable. There are spots in which it can be of value, however, and there also tons of "sharp square" plays where the contrarian side is actually the "square" play i.e. everyone trying to be a contrarian. Jord brings this up frequently.

Bombs, agree with both yours and Jord's
takes on Contrarian betting. My personal
opinion is it is much harder to do in 2026
than it was in 2006. Have to pick spots and
work in some filters that as a capper you can
live with win or lose. GL Thursday Bases.

 

[Kevy]

Was reading an influencer on X/Twitter
saying that Contrarian betting does not
work anymore. That it's bull shit and a
waste of time in 2026.

Going to look at some of the web sites
that provide betting ticket and money
percentages every day and see if I can
challenge myself to prove that it might
still work or not. A challenge accepted.

Will start with experimenting with two
units (2*) a play and go up or down unit
wise from there to one unit or three units.

Wednesday 5/27/2026

Fading A Public Dog

2*New York Mets ML -112
(Abbott-Brazoban)

Seen that Cincy Reds are a popular dog for
both tickets and handle. Back in the day we
would fade a public dog. I stared at the bet
submit button for about five minutes working
up the courage to bet on the Mets. But I had
to. It had to be done. I had no choice.

Instead of using the term "public" going to
use the term "popular" instead going forward.

See if I can have some fun with a Contrarian
strategy each day in Bases fading a popular
side, total, or run line. GL Thursday Bases.

Contrarian Experiment: 1-0 +2.00 units

 

[Kevy]

Seems to me that the harder it is to make a bet, the more likely it is to win.

GL, sir.

Like a big dumb Dummy I took the bigger
sweat today. The other Popular dog I could
have faded was Atlanta and played Boston.
Boston wins 8-0. With the Mets I'm sweating
in the bottom of the 9th inning. Saying prayers,
making deals with God, clutching my lucky
rabbits foot, inventing new cuss words.
GL Thursday Bases.

 

[Kevy]

Contrarian Experiment Day #2

Thursday 5/28/2026

Fading A Popular Dog

2*Texas Rangers ML -133
(Arrighetti/Eovaldi)

This is an interesting game today.
The Dog Astros and the Total Under
are extremely popular according to
both the Tickets and Handle percents.

For the Fade I chose to go against the
popular dog. Will kick my own ass if the
Total sails over 7.5 and Houston wins.
Popular Unders can be a real good Fade

Took Texas on the ML after noticing the
amount of Love for Houston in this spot.
on X-Twitter a lot of the Influencers are
all over Houston.

I'm probaly playing this way too early.
But I'm becoming the middle age guy
with health issues. And will be in some
Doctor appointments later on today.

GL Thursday Bases

 

[Kevy]

Contrarian Experiment Day #2

Thursday 5/28/2026

Fading A Popular Dog

2*Texas Rangers ML -133
(Arrighetti/Eovaldi)

This is an interesting game today.
The Dog Astros and the Total Under
are extremely popular according to
both the Tickets and Handle percents.

For the Fade I chose to go against the
popular dog. Will kick my own ass if the
Total sails over 7.5 and Houston wins.
Popular Unders can be a real good Fade

Took Texas on the ML after noticing the
amount of Love for Houston in this spot.
on X-Twitter a lot of the Influencers are
all over Houston.

I'm probaly playing this way too early.
But I'm becoming the middle age guy
with health issues. And will be in some
Doctor appointments later on today.

GL Thursday Bases

Day #2 of the Contrarian Experiment
was a shit show with the Texas Rangers.

Will see if Friday card has anything that
might stand out for this. GL Friday Bases.

Contrarian Experiment: 1-1 -0.66 units

 

[Kevy]

Contrarian Experiment Day #3

Friday 5/29/2026

Fading A Popular Favorite

2*Los Angeles Angels ML +143
(Urena/Martinez)

For Friday Fading a Popular Favorite.
Heavy Tickets and Handle on both the
Rays ML and RL. GL Friday Bases.

 

[Junior44]

What happened to the contrarian plays? Really would have liked to track this.......

 

[Kevy]

What happened to the contrarian plays? Really would have liked to track this.......

I stopped after Friday's play with
selecting one and putting money
on it. Will update the thread later.

Over the weekend I tried to do some
tracking on some of the heavier popular
tickets and handle. Where I was foolish
was just hopping in without doing some
back testing and tracking of certain
percentages.

If I had a day or two to spare where I
could do some back testing and or if I
was more computer savvy. A program
where you could go back and test and
track certain percentages could help.

One thing I oberved over the weekend
and over the past few days I found might
help. The gaming industry and the online
influencer culture is pushing Parlays really
hardcore.

The stuff they let everyone now Parlay is
pretty amazing. Back in the day we would
have been told no you can not parlay this
or that. Correlation, Etc. Parlays were very
vanilla except at the old 5Dimes and Heritage.

I think now the Books offshore and domestic
just need one popular play each day to kill
all the Parlays. Which game each day could
kill the most tickets.

 

[Junior44]

I stopped after Friday's play with
selecting one and putting money
on it. Will update the thread later.

Over the weekend I tried to do some
tracking on some of the heavier popular
tickets and handle. Where I was foolish
was just hopping in without doing some
back testing and tracking of certain
percentages.

If I had a day or two to spare where I
could do some back testing and or if I
was more computer savvy. A program
where you could go back and test and
track certain percentages could help.

One thing I oberved over the weekend
and over the past few days I found might
help. The gaming industry and the online
influencer culture is pushing Parlays really
hardcore.

The stuff they let everyone now Parlay is
pretty amazing. Back in the day we would
have been told no you can not parlay this
or that. Correlation, Etc. Parlays were very
vanilla except at the old 5Dimes and Heritage.

I think now the Books offshore and domestic
just need one popular play each day to kill
all the Parlays. Which game each day could
kill the most tickets.

thanks for the detailed reply............