Recent content by WillyBoy

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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 13

    The re-tooled model broke its slump this past week, going with the dog-cover trend, finishing with a semi-respectable 8-6 ATS and 10-4 SU. It also won the score totals battle for the 4th straight week and the current O/U record stands at 56%. Changing from being exclusively reliant on...
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 12

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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 12

    As I mentioned above I’ve done a lot of tampering with the model in order to improve the result – but, some of the total score projections hurt the eyes. Still standing by the straight-up margins, but, to me, the total score projections for some games aren’t to be trusted. So, don’t. GLTA
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 12

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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 12

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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 12

    The Offensive and Defensive Rankings below are a 1 to 2 average of early season data against numbers from the last 3 games – which was complicated by strength of opposition unit matchups. If anyone cares enough to look closely and spot an error, would appreciate a heads up.
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 12

    Offensive and Defensive Rankings will have to wait, as the changes I’ve made has bugs galore. And I don’t where this retooled version of the model is headed, picking 9 dogs – but it doesn’t like big lines. GL
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 12

    Another replay of the model’s piss-poor performance the past two weeks, and all I can say is that teams and players aren’t living up to their early season numbers. So I’ve flipped my thinking a bit. The plan, now, is to dismiss most early season data as irrelevant, and retool the algorithm to...
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 11

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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 11

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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 11

    FWIW: The Straight-up MOV for last night’s game was NE by 12.47, rounded to 12.5. As the closing line dropped to NE -12.5, model’s final pick went NYJ +12.5 – a half-point ATS loss for the model by 3/100ths of a point! A tad disappointing, but given the final score margin of 13 points, an...
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 11

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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 11

    Above projections include 1st Injury and line-up changes. Just a bug in the model.
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 11

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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 11

    Another pathetic week for model. Strong teams that put up gaudy early season numbers are falling apart, while early weaker teams are pulling upsets and covering left and right. I’ve spent a day adjusting team variables to more recent performance data, which I hope will turn things around. Dogs...
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 10

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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 10

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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 10

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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 10

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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 10

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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 10

    6 upsets and 3 additional dog covers! The model cannot handle that kind of action. It’s surprising the model didn’t tank even worse. When good players and teams just don’t show up, past performance numbers are utterly irrelevant. Hopefully, it turns around for the 2nd half of the season. GLTA
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 9

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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 9

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