The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 11

WillyBoy

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Jun 21, 2018
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Another pathetic week for model. Strong teams that put up gaudy early season numbers are falling apart, while early weaker teams are pulling upsets and covering left and right. I’ve spent a day adjusting team variables to more recent performance data, which I hope will turn things around. Dogs, since Week 8, are covering at a 60%+ clip, better than their very weak start of the season. Looking for a regression to the mean. (Also, posted the wrong score the other day for JAX @ HOU, where JAX, like the Giants, collapsed at the end, accounting for yet another model loss, smh). FWIW: score totals are holding strong at 56.1%. Overs are hitting 58.1% of the time, Unders at 40.5%. GLTA

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WillyBoy

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Forum Member
Jun 21, 2018
1,749
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38
Hawaii
FWIW: The Straight-up MOV for last night’s game was NE by 12.47, rounded to 12.5. As the closing line dropped to NE -12.5, model’s final pick went NYJ +12.5 – a half-point ATS loss for the model by 3/100ths of a point! A tad disappointing, but given the final score margin of 13 points, an existential uplift for being only 53/100ths off from nailing the margin perfectly.

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