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Saturday, December 6
NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 15
Saturday’s games
Big X (@ Arlington, TX)
BYU vs
Texas Tech (-12.5)
BYU (11-1, 8-1)
BYU won last three games, scoring 44-26-41 points.
BYU is +14 in turnovers in wins, was minus-3 in only loss.
BYU’s only loss was 29-7 at Texas Tech November 8th.
Cougars have 5 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Broncos have 61 starts returning on the offensive line.
QB Bachmeier has 2,593 PY (14 TD’s, 4 INTs)
BYU covered six of its last seven games.
BYU is 8-2 ATS in last ten games as an underdog.
BYU is 12-7 ATS in last 19 conference games.
BYU is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games coming off a win.
Over is 5-3 in BYU’s last eight games.
Texas Tech (11-1, 8-1)
Texas Tech scored 34+ points in 10 of its 11 wins.
Tech’s only loss: 26-22 at Arizona State.
Red Raiders have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
Red Raiders have 138 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Morton has started 20 games.
Red Raiders are 10-1 ATS this season.
Under McGuire, Red Raiders are 20-10-1 ATS as a favorite.
Under McGuire, Tech is 22-12-1 ATS in conference games.
Tech is +8 in turnovers in their last four games.
Under is 7-3 in Tech’s last ten games.
Both teams are in Big X title game for the first time.
Teams split their two meetings as Big X rivals.
BYU lost 29-7 at Texas Tech November 8th.
Tech lost 27-14 in Provo last year.
MAC (@ Detroit)
Miami OH vs
Western Michigan (-1.5)
Miami (7-5, 6-2)
Redhawks won 7 of last 9 games, after an 0-3 start.
Miami is 1-4 when it scores fewer than 25 points.
Miami is 0-2 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Redhawks have one starter back on offense, 5 on defense.
Miami has 3 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Finn started 32 games, at Toledo/Baylor.
Miami covered seven of its last nine games.
Redhawks are 3-3 ATS games with single digit spread.
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Miami is 1-4 ATS as an underdog this year
Miami is 10-15 ATS in last 25 games as an underdog.
Over is 7-4 in Miami’s last eleven games.
Last two years, Redhawks were 1-1 in MAC title game (WL).
Western Michigan (8-4, 7-1)
WMU won eight of its last nine games, after an 0-3 start.
Broncos are 0-4 when they allow more than 21 points.
Broncos have 4 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
WMU has 23 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Lowry has 1,507 PY (7 TD’s, 2 INT’s).
WMU is 8-3-1 ATS this season.
Last three games, Broncos had 283 rushing yards/game.
WMU allowed 23-33-38-26 points in their losses.
Broncos are 3-1 in games decided by 4 or fewer points.
Over is 4-1 in WMU’s last five games.
Broncos are in MAC title game for first time since 2016.
Miami (-2.5) beat Western Michigan 26-17 at home October 25.
Miami won last two series games, after losing previous eight.
Under is 5-3 in last eight meetings.
SEC (@ Atlanta)
Alabama vs
Georgia (-1.5)
Alabama (10-2, 7-1)
Alabama is 4-1 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Alabama was held to 17-21 points in its two losses.
Alabama has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Crimson Tide has 95 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Simpson threw 25 passes last year.
Under DeBoer, Alabama is 2-0 ATS as an underdog.
In his career, DeBoer is 6-1 as an underdog.
Crimson Tide is 15-8-2 ATS in its last 25 SEC games.
Alabama is 2-1-2 ATS in games with single digit spread.
Eight of last nine Alabama games stayed under the total.
Crimson Tide won its last nine SEC title games (last loss, 2008).
Georgia (11-1, 7-1)
Georgia won last eight games, allowing 10-3-9 points in last three.
Dawgs’ only loss was 24-21 at home to Alabama.
Dawgs have 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Georgia has 35 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Stockton has three career starts.
In his career, Smart is 44-52-1 ATS as a favorite.
Last 2+ years, Georgia is 12-14 ATS in SEC games.
In his career, Smart is 50-40 ATS in SEC games.
Dawgs are 9-21-1 ATS in last 31 games coming off a win.
Five of last seven Georgia games stayed under the total.
Since 2017, Georgia is 2-4 SU in SEC title games.
Alabama (+2.5) won 24-21 at Georgia September 27
Crimson Tide won 10 of last 11 series games.
Alabama is 5-1 vs Georgia in post-season games.
Under is 5-4 in last nine meetings.
ACC (@ Charlotte, NC)
Duke vs
Virginia (-4)
Duke (7-5, 6-2)
Duke is 0-4 when it scores less than 32 points.
Blue Devils are +15 in turnovers in wins, minus-8 in losses.
Last five games, Duke gave up 34.6 points/game.
Blue Devils have 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Duke has 37 returning starts on the offensive line.
QB Mensah started 13 games at Tulane.
Under Manny Diaz, Duke is 5-4 ATS as an underdog.
In his career, Diaz is 9-5 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2022, Duke is 21-11 ATS in ACC games.
Duke is 19-11 ATS in last 29 games coming off a win.
Over is 8-3 in their I-A games.
Virginia (10-2, 7-2)
Virginia’s two losses were by 4-7 points.
Cavaliers won nine of their last ten games.
Cavaliers have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Cavaliers have 182 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Morris started 21 games at North Texas, TCU.
Under Elliott, Virginia is 8-7 ATS as a favorite.
Under Elliott, Virginia is 21-11 ATS in ACC games.
Under Elliott, Cavaliers are 13-7 ATS in games coming off a win
Cavaliers held last four opponents under 265 total yards.
Last seven Virginia games stayed under the total.
Both teams are 0-1 in ACC championship games.
Virginia lost the 2019 game, Duke the 2013 game.
Virginia (+5.5) won 34-17 at Duke three weeks ago.
Cavaliers won nine of last ten series games.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Big 18 (@ Indianapolis)
Ohio State (-4) vs
Indiana
Ohio State (12-0, 9-0)
Ohio State’s last 11 wins were all by 18+ points.
Buckeyes held all 11 of those opponents under 300 yards.
Ohio State has 6 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
Buckeyes have 85 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Sayin has 3,065 PY, with 30 TD’s, 5 INTs.
Under Day, OSU is 46-27-3 ATS as a favorite.
Under Day, Buckeyes are 39-22-2 ATS in conference games.
Buckeyes are 24-9-2 ATS in last 35 games coming off a win.
Buckeyes gained at least 419 yards in their last six games.
Under is 7-3 in their last ten games.
OSU won last five Big 18 title games (last one was 2020)
Indiana (12-0, 9-0)
Hoosiers have only two wins by less than 10 points.
Indiana scored 30+ points in six of last seven games.
Hoosiers have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Hoosiers have 80 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Mendoza started 19 games at California.
Under Cignetti, Indiana is 1-2 ATS as an underdog.
In his I-A career, Cignetti is 3-3 ATS as an underdog.
Indiana is +17 in turnovers this season.
In his career, Cignetti is 22-12 ATS in Big 18 games.
Under Cignetti, Indiana is 13-8 ATS in games coming off a win.
Hoosiers are in Big 18 title game for the first time.
Ohio State has won at least 25 in a row against Indiana.
Buckeyes are 4-2 ATS in last six meetings.
Over is 7-1 in last eight series games.
