"Rose Bowl"
Ok, I'm definitely betting on Indiana getting off to a slow start.
Big loss for the Hoosiers, as DL Stephen Daley was injured against Ohio St and is out for this game. He's a run-stuffer and had 5.5 sacks. They may not need the run-stuffing against Alabama's surprisingly feeble ground game, but all hands on deck is always preferable.
I think DeBoer gets a bad rap... nobody is going to fill Nick Saban's shoes. He's a decent coach. However, I'll take Cignetti over just about anyone now, so advantage Indiana.
If this is a close, low-scoring game, Indiana has a big edge in the kicking game. Radicic is 15-of-16 this year. However, his long is only 46 yards. Talty for Alabama always looks scared to me. He's just shaky. He is 15-of-22 with two of those misses under 30 yards. And his long is just 48 yards.
In fact, somebody correct me if I'm wrong (Boomer?), but it seems to me that Alabama's special teams have been shaky overall. At least against Oklahoma.
One note I should have mentioned earlier... every single team I bet in the first quarter... the other team WILL get the ball first. It's a given.
Alabama 1Q (+2.5) 4.6 to win 4
Indiana 1Q TT Under (6.5) 4.6 to win 4
Alabama 1H (+4.5) 3.6 to win 3
I really like Indiana to win this game. But I can't lay 7.5 on a team off the long layoff right now. 0-6 is a strong trend, and it's not random.
My thought is to maybe play Indiana after they fall behind.