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    Juicebeater: MLB UNDERDOG ANALYSIS (1990-2002)

    Guys, Juicebeater's thread sparked my interest, so I did some inquiries at SSS Stats. The database I came across does not have the 2003 season, but a 13-year sampling (1990-2002) should be sufficient. I only did this analysis over the ENTIRE 13-year period. I can do an individual season if...
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    Braves/Reds - 4/21/04

    ATLANTA BRAVES ?115 - The Reds have been a pleasant early season surprise, but I feel that Atlanta has a fairly large pitching advantage in this contest. Ramirez surprised many people last season as the least heralded starter on a staff full of superstars, and that success has carried over to...
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    Red Sox/Blue Jays - 4/20/04

    RED SOX/BLUE JAYS Over 8 +100 - Yes this is a marquis pitching match-up between quite possibly the two best pitchers in the American League, but there are a couple of factors here that make me feel that the value lies with the Over here at this modest number. First of all, Halladay has not...
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    Padres/Giants - 4/19/04

    PADRES/GIANTS Under 8.5 ?110 - I believe that both of these starting pitchers have more ability than their early season numbers would suggest, and they will both be helped by facing an opposing offense tonight that has struggled against their respective arms. Wells actually pitched great in his...
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    Pirates/Mets

    PITTSBURGH PIRATES +105 - The Pirates have been a nice investment in the first two weeks of the season, as they have a winning record of 6-5 despite being an underdog in every game! Pittsburgh is currently 6th in the National League in team ERA, and Benson has done his part to keep this number...
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    Yankees/Red Sox - 4/17/04

    YANKEES/RED SOX Under 8 +100 - This contest has all the potential to be a good old fashion pitcher?s duel. Schilling has pitched well in his first 2 starts in a Boston uniform, posting a 3.21 ERA with a fantastic 0.93 ratio, recording 17 strikeouts in 14 innings along the way. You may also...
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    Orioles/Blue Jays - 4/16/04

    ORIOLES/BLUE JAYS Over 10 ?105 - The Toronto offense may finally be starting to come around, which is bad news for American League pitchers considering the talent of their lineup. The Jays put up 11 runs at Detroit yesterday, pushing their average to 7 runs per game for the 3-game series. They...
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    Diamondbacks/Rockies - 4/15/04

    COLORADO ROCKIES ?125 - This looks like a cheap price to me for the Rockies at home, particularly when the starting pitching match-up is basically a wash. Yes Elarton was ineffective in his first start at Los Angeles, allowing 5 runs on 5 hits and 5 walks in 5.1 innings. However, Daigle was...
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    Blue Jays/Tigers - 4/14/04

    BLUE JAYS/TIGERS Under 9.5 ?120 - Yes, these clubs have averaged a combined 9.50 runs per game in their four head-to-head meetings so far this season. However, the Tigers have done most of their damage vs. right-handed pitching, as they are batting a modest .255 against southpaws, as opposed to...
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    Athletics/Rangers - 4/13/04

    ATHLETICS/RANGERS Over 10 ?110 - Yes, I am very well away that Zito has dominated Texas over the years, but Mickey Callaway does not inspire confidence for the Rangers. His presence on the mound combined with the fact that the Texas offense is scalding the ball right now should be enough to push...
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    Twins/Indians - 4/12/04

    TWINS/INDIANS Over 9.5 +100 - The Twins have now gone Over in all 6 games this season, while the Over is also 4-3 in all Cleveland games. These clubs opened the season against each other, and they averaged a combined 13 runs per game over those 3 games! The Indians hit Lohse hard in his first...
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    M's/A's - 4/11/04

    OAKLAND ATHLETICS ?130 - I feel that this is a very reasonable price for Oakland at home vs. a Seattle team that surprisingly remains the only winless team in baseball. While the Mariners usually hit left-handers well, Mulder is not one of the southpaws that they have teed off on. In fact, the...
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    Angels/Rangers - 4/10/04

    ANGELS/RANGERS Over 11 ?110 - Lackey was a Rookie of the Year candidate for the Angels when Anaheim won the World Series two years ago, but he regressed badly last season, going 10-16 overall with a 4.63 ERA and a rather high 1.42 ratio. He was awful on the road, going 2-10 with a 5.96 ERA and...
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    Rockies/Diamondbacks - 4/8/04

    ROCKIES/DIAMONDBACKS Over 9.5 ?125 - These clubs combined to score 14 runs last night, and I am looking for more fireworks tonight with the third starter for each team on the mound. While Dessens is a serviceable hurler for Arizona, the bottom line is that he still had a 5.07 ERA with a poor...
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    Rangers/Athletics - 4/7/04

    RANGERS/ATHLETICS Over 8.5 ?120 - While I realize that Zito is one of the best pitchers in the game, this still looks like a low total to me for a game involving Colby Lewis. Lewis was supposed to be the next big phenom, but the pitching-strapped Rangers probably rushed him through the minor...
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    Tigers/Blue Jays - 4/6/04

    TIGERS/BLUE JAYS Over 10 ?115 - Maroth was a 20-game loser last season, with a horrible road ERA of 6.45. He now gets to face a potent Toronto lineup that is due for an explosion after getting shut out yesterday. The Blue Jays also lit up Maroth in his 3 starts against them last season, as he...
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    Indians/Twins - 4/5/04

    CLEVELAND INDIANS +125 - I kick off my 2004 MLB campaign with a bit of a value pop here. I actually rate the starting pitchers in this game about even, and both of these teams have solid bullpens. Therefore, I see nice value here on the underdog at this price. Sabathia went a good 13-9 while...
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    Jazz/Clippers - 4/4/04

    UTAH JAZZ ?4.5 - While I am not usually a fan of giving this many points on the road, the circumstances of this match-up actually makes this spot look like decent value. The Jazz need a victory here to move up into a tie with idle Denver for the 8th and final playoff spot in the West. They are...
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    Suns/Mavericks - 4/3/04

    PHOENIX SUNS +13.5 - This is a poor situational spot for Dallas, who find themselves as prohibitive favorites after an emotional win over Sacramento on national television two nights ago. A letdown is probably in order here. Besides, while the Mavericks are 19-3 S/U at home vs. conference foes...
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    Wizards/Timberwolves - 4/2/04

    WASHINGTON WIZARDS +13.5 - While there is no denying that the T-Wolves are the better team here, Washington has been competitive on the road lately and I see no reason why that can not slide under this fat number. The Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games away from the MCI Center, losing...
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