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    The Limper Line ? NFL ? Week 16

    When I first began projecting NFL scores in 2010, I used Nik Bonaddio?s Number Fire projections to measure my model?s success ? which was disappointing to say the least. I had been doing NBA projections for about 10 years at the time, and my model was doing well on basketball, so that my initial...
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    The Limper Line ? NFL ? Week 15

    A couple of bad beats and pick-flips (to say nothing of a push turned into an ATS loss last night), and reality stole from the model a winning ATS record for the week. SMH. Anyway, hoping Week 15 changes things around. GLTA
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    The Limper Line ? NFL ? Week 14

    Another rough week for the model against the spread. Hoping this week turns it around.
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    The Limper Line ? NFL ? Week 13

    Dogs still rule the books, coming in at 56.6% ATS, with Road Dogs cruising at 56.4%. Last week was awful for the Limper, and to top it off I found an error in the totals which added another loss to the model?s ATS record.
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    The Limper Line ? NFL ? Week 12

    Expect considerable changes to the Week 12 projections, after Wednesday?s injury reports are posted. Players are having a hard time staying healthy. GLTA ? and Happy Thanksgiving
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    The Limper Line ? NFL ? Week 11

    That time of the season when teams like the Jets and Jags start looking forward to the draft. Especially be wary of Jacksonville, where ?tanking for Trevor? may quickly become their mantra. For all the teams (except in the NFC East) with only 2 wins and no fans in the stands to boo them, watch...
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    The Limper Line ? NFL ? Week 10

    This past week, the model did pretty well, and brought its ATS record up to 50% from Week 4 ? the first week it ended using last year?s data. The biggest problem this year has been massaging out all the home-field advantages, which have become largely irrelevant. It has been an integral part of...
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    The Limper Line ? NFL ? Week 9

    With dogs still killing it ATS ? at 55.9% - the model has turned, finally, from favorites, and projecting dogs, this week, to cover at a whopping 78.6%. Thus far in the season, road dogs are an especially good option covering at a rate of 57.9%, which strongly indicates just how badly Vegas line...
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    The Limper Line ? NFL ? Week 8

    So far, dogs overall have the edge this season, hitting at 53.8% ATS, while road dogs are hammering it at 57.4%. This week, however, the model is going chalk, taking 10 faves to cover. At least, that?s the current projection. Wednesday?s injury reports may flip a few.
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    The Limper Line ? NFL ? Week 7

    Although my model?s spread projections haven?t done well the past couple of years (and continues to do poorly at 41.2% ATS), it still outperforms both Number Fire (38.9% ATS) and Team Rankings (33.3% ATS) ? standards by which I measure my model?s relative reliability; moreover, its straight-up...
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    The Limper Line ? NFL ? Week 6

    FWIW- Included below the weekly Standings Record, are the model?s ?Power Rankings?; the first frame based on a composite average (C-Ave) of straight win/losses/pushes, strength of opposition (O-Ave) and statistical ranks (R-Ave) in a variety of categories; the second a ranking of C-Ave based on...
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    The Limper Line ? NFL ? Week 5

    The model is ? today ? projecting 11 dogs to cover in Week 5, which is hard to credit, but considering these projections are based, in part, on players who started last week?s games, and does not include players who were out, but will likely start this week, it kind of makes sense. Projections...
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    The Limper NBA 2020 Playoffs ? Finals

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    The Limper Line ? NFL ? Week 4

    Finally, the model gets to shake off its 2019 dusty data, and is now ready and loaded with all current stats, so ? look out! LOL. Well, the model could hardly do much worse in terms of its ?picks?. But I?m still satisfied with its performance. Statistical projection models like Number Fire and...
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    The Limper Line ? NFL ? Week 3

    Predictably, these early season projections are flubbing badly in terms of MOV, but projecting straight-up winners is a good indicator that the model is performing correctly. Hopefully, by Week 4 we?ll see a better ATS performance. Also, remember that these ?initial? weekly projections are...
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    The Limper NBA 2020 Playoffs ? Week 6

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    The Limper Line ? NFL ? Week 2

    Bearing in mind the model is left with using last season?s data with only a few player updates and a modified home/away protocol (ie. no fans), a poor ATS result could be expected. However, the fact that it did pretty well straight-up, going 11-5 (Vegas line favorites only went 6-10 SU)...
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    The Limper NBA 2020 Playoffs ? Week 5

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    The Limper Line ? NFL ? Week 1

    The model had its worst year ever in 2019, and even after a full off-season looking hard at the variables and weights the algorithm uses in its projections, I?m at a loss to explain why it did so badly. I?d been thinking of throwing in the towel, but rerunning last season with a full set of 2019...
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    The Limper NBA 2020 Playoffs ? Week 4

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