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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 16

    Another dog nightmare for the model, with 9 dogs covering, including 6 straight upsets. FWIW I tweaked algorithm to run a test with full season stats, but it came out the same; so, if past performance numbers suddenly don’t matter, the model’s up a tree without a paddle. I routinely monitor the...
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 15

    A very lethargic week for the model, with 8 dogs covering and 5 upsets being the new normal. A clear, predictable projection flop was the algorithm using J.J. Mcarthy’s past performance numbers as a guide, without the context of Washington’s truly pathetic defense; likewise, the Commander’s...
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 14

    With 9 dogs covering and 7 straight upsets, that was some week; and the model took full advantage going 12-4 ATS and 9-7 SU. The best week since last season. Worrying a bit over its straight-up performance, but at 67% for the season, not complaining. Also worrying is how Vegas will handle the...
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 13

    The re-tooled model broke its slump this past week, going with the dog-cover trend, finishing with a semi-respectable 8-6 ATS and 10-4 SU. It also won the score totals battle for the 4th straight week and the current O/U record stands at 56%. Changing from being exclusively reliant on...
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 12

    Another replay of the model’s piss-poor performance the past two weeks, and all I can say is that teams and players aren’t living up to their early season numbers. So I’ve flipped my thinking a bit. The plan, now, is to dismiss most early season data as irrelevant, and retool the algorithm to...
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 11

    Another pathetic week for model. Strong teams that put up gaudy early season numbers are falling apart, while early weaker teams are pulling upsets and covering left and right. I’ve spent a day adjusting team variables to more recent performance data, which I hope will turn things around. Dogs...
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 10

    6 upsets and 3 additional dog covers! The model cannot handle that kind of action. It’s surprising the model didn’t tank even worse. When good players and teams just don’t show up, past performance numbers are utterly irrelevant. Hopefully, it turns around for the 2nd half of the season. GLTA
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 9

    Not the greatest week for the model ATS, but I do like the ever-improving SU number. Also, if you’re keeping track, totals projections are still strong at 57.3% O/U. Currently, however, the actual NFL average game totals are slightly lower – 45.7% - than the model’s at 47.8%. GLTA.
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 8

    A lackluster week for the model, ATS (definitely, revenge of the Favorites); but it’s doing its job SU. Also, I hate to say it, but the total score projections are hitting 59.3% O/U, which may be not nothing, or may be something- I don’t know. The model is really not into totals, but if it...
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 7

    A decent week ATS for the model, and a marked improvement SU. A lot of non-sides backdoor covering or winning outright, which I find weird, but I guess NFL parity is having its impact. GLTA
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 6

    Last week the model ran with the dogs, picking 9 to cover, and went a very decent 10-4 ATS. This week it likes 10!! Which is double-dog-crazy – and I don’t like it. Contrary to some opinions, Vegas line-setters aren’t crazy, and don’t suffer from recency bias; so, bettors, be careful this week...
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 5

    A decent week for the model, despite some weird upsets. There really needs to be a school of clock management for coaches, and play-calling in the 2 minute drills. I can’t remember seeing such game-management garbage as I’ve seen this season. Luckily, it hasn’t cost me money YET, but I have to...
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 4

    The good news for the model is: no more 2024 data. The bad news: the model has dug itself into a hole ATS that even a solid SU rate may be a bridge too far to climb out of (a badly mixed metaphor, but you get the point). Maybe today, but by tomorrow, I’ll be posting Team Rankings, and later in...
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 3

    Got home too late to do initial projections (Singapore Airlines has great 1st Class seating, but always hits big-time headwinds coming back to Honolulu and inevitably gets in late), and there’s too much to do to re-project a separate projection for Thursday’s game, so I’m going with BUF covering...
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 2

    As tough an opening weekend was for the model, it was the best to watch (thank heavens for Prime Ticket – LOL). Only a couple of predictable stinkers, the rest of the games were outstanding (especially the Sunday night extravaganza) which, I can add, the model projected to within .2 points...
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    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 1

    It’s that time again. Things to know about these projections and postings: First, the Limper is a number based projection model, not a prediction machine – which is NOT a distinction without a difference. As bettors we all make predictions, based on what works for us – eye-test, hunches...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Finals Game 7

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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Playoffs Week 8

    Oklahoma’s coach Daigneault was clearly outcoached in the first game of the series. Starting with a small line-up, instead of his usual starters, this was his attempt to put his personal mark on the team; and this ego-driven “strategy” cost them home-court advantage. If not for the...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Playoffs Week 7

    The model has liked NY from the start of this series, mainly because of its road numbers, and it likes them today by a smidgin – but be wary. A hot 1st quarter start for the Pacers, could spell NY’s doom. This has become a coin-flip series, where the numbers matter next to nothing, and I’ve quit...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Playoffs Week 6

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