Search results

  1. W

    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 17

    Totals going 37-22-2!! Trust me, all I did before I started posting O/Us in Week 13 was to tweak the algorithm a tiny tad, updated the officiating variable, and voilà – what was old is new again. I keep waiting for the balloon to pop, but it just keeps going – LOL. As far as the model’s ATS...
  2. W

    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 16

    I’ve put the Limper’s Totals projections into the huge trash pile where it belonged. Since Week 1 it has gone off a steep cliff and is simply unreliable. The model’s ATS continues to stink it up, but SU remains consistently positive, so I’ll keep plugging away. GLTA
  3. W

    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 15

    A decent ATS result for the model last week, but a sharp regression (as expected) for Over/Unders, with a significant increase, overall, in the projection/losing score differential. I have to say however that the model has yet to crash and burn, so I’ll be progressing with it in order the obtain...
  4. W

    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 14

    A better week, but it’s still been a crap season for the model against the spread. A bright spot has been its straight-up numbers; and then, out of nowhere, the first week of Over-Unders projections were better than I thought they would be. The Vegas line makers, however, must have looked up...
  5. W

    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 13

    Although it’s predictable to see even good defenses fall apart in the 2nd halves of games, last week was pretty much over-the-top. Also predictable was that I was on the losing end of such games, along with the model. Anyway – it’s nearly Thanksgiving, and I expect the start of the Tanking For...
  7. W

    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 12

    Went a whopping 8-6 ATS the past week. True, it’s not a lot to cheer about, but something is better than nothing. I also got lucky on a couple of parlays, making a tiny profit, but my Raiders ripped my heart out – again. SMH I’m the kind of bettor bookies love to see coming. However, I think 12...
  8. W

    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 11

    So, the model flips to favorites last week and that’s when the dogs bark, not just covering but pulling 5 SU upsets. SMH. On top of which, I got blanked on my parlays, killing my win streak and has me looking early at the NBA to recoup. Anyway, the model is showing its confusion, now flipping...
  9. W

    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 10

    In a nutshell: the model picked 10 dogs this past week, only 2 covered, and it wasn’t particularly close. Going 13-2 straight-up, the model knows who should win, and has aped Vegas by settling on favorites, but for no reason I can fathom is super-stingy when it comes to the MOV. It lost those 8...
  10. W

    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 9

    Going 8-8 ATS the past week is no comfort, given the previous 3 weeks; but, I’ll take it as a step in the right direction. The model has been picking too many dogs to cover – it just won’t look at the Vegas lines seriously - but it’s not really designed to do that, so picking winners remains the...
  11. W

    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 8

    Hard to find the bright spot in the past three weeks of the model’s performance, and I suspect there isn’t one. Even with its continued solid straight-up performance, it’s lost way too many of its dog picks to blowouts, or 3 point favorites to 2 point wins. Today, I’m blaming the injury module...
  13. W

    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 7

    Another crappy week, when the model went dog-crazy - a week that saw favorites win and cover at a rate of 85% ATS! At least the model managed a good showing SU, and got another positive pick-flip from week 5, so all is not lost. It just feels that way. GLTA
  14. W

    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 6

    Believe it or not, the model’s had even worse ATS weeks before; but not like this lately, and not like this after Week 3. (There was even a closing line pick flip in the model’s favor and the week still turned out crappy.) It has also been projecting higher than normal scores, which I think is...
  15. W

    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 5

    Road dogs are killing it thus far this season, going 57.8% ATS. The model continues its struggle ATS, but straight-up it’s about where it should be. Key player injuries, especially among QBs, is going to make a muddle of the Limper’s projections, but that’s what I pay my staff for. GLTA
  16. W

    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 4

    Such a relief to be done with year old data. Not that I expect the model to suddenly take off, but it’s a lot of work to squeeze in that third game of numbers from last season, it feels like a burden lifted. If you’ve been paying close attention: in addition to performing sweeps of various...
  17. W

    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 3

    Last week was Upset City and the model responded with a big whiff. I’m sure Vegas sportsbooks cleaned up, with the public all in on DAL, BAL, SF and PHI; and the model seems to suffer from recency bias, going for the dogs in a big way, and, for some reason, higher scoring than we saw in the...
  19. W

    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 2

    After a shaky start, the model performed better than expected ATS, and as expected SU - but about as badly as could be in projected game totals/ (For the sake of your wallet don’t use those numbers wagering O/U.) This week’s projections reflect a complex of variables using a combination of last...
  20. W

    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 1

    Generally speaking, the projections below are based on past performance of teams, players, injuries and matchups. The problem is that the algorithm used requires 3 full weeks of data in order to run. Therefore, in the past, I wouldn’t post at all until Week 4. However, several years ago I found...
  21. W

    The Limper NBA 2024 Playoffs – Week 7

    A ton of talk has gone on about how Boston cruised to the Finals and winning 64 games by destroying the far weaker Eastern Conference teams. Which is definitely true, at least in the playoffs thus far; and going 40-12 vs Eastern teams in the regular season makes a similar point. That said Boston...
  22. W

    The Limper NBA 2024 Playoffs – Week 6

    Slowly, the model is showing improvement. At least, it’s pulling away from Vegas’ straight-up results, now by 6%. ATS the model’s still struggling. However, sneaking up to a 50% win rate are the models’ totals’ results, with a total score variation (TSV) improvement last week, down to 9.6 pts...
  23. W

    The Limper NBA 2024 Playoffs – Week 5

    I can’t recall when I’ve watched so many playoff games where past-performance numbers have mattered so little. I’m speaking, specifically, of the second round games in the Western Conference, although the Knicks/Pacers series also defies logic. If not for Boston/Cleveland, which was predictable...
Bet on MyBookie
Top