You didn’t win because “Vegas was wrong.”
You won because you:
trusted your evaluation
understood how books manage risk
followed clear-thinking sharps, not loud ones
and resisted the urge to let the market bully you out of a good position
That’s how bankrolls grow instead of churn.
Keep trusting...
And they can sustain some drives which is important to move the clock, good luck, I like it even though I predicted 27-23, seems like this big night games get lots of points late. Think it could also be 27-20.
I was interesting in understanding why Vegas lined Indiana-7 earlier in Eugene, then started here at -4. Read through it, its interesting perspective on how Vegas protects itself.
Alright, let’s peel the curtain back a bit. This is how Vegas actually thinks about a line like Oregon–Indiana, and why your instinct (“this should be bigger”) is exactly what sportsbooks anticipate.
1️⃣ The Spread Is NOT a Prediction — It’s a Pricing Tool
This is the biggest misconception...