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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Playoffs Week 4

    Another poor performance by the model this past week. Based primarily on team and player past performance numbers, the model couldn’t project the radical and strange drop-offs in production we’ve seen from some teams (like Boston), nor the inexplicable production increases in other teams. Poor...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Playoffs Week 3

    A slightly better week for the model – at least the projected scores are a bit closer – but the ATS and SU records remain pathetic. The model did gain a win from a first week re-sweep of closing lines, but, overall, the records stay miserable. Hopefully Round 2 will show a model rebound. GLTA...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Playoffs Week 2

    A dirty week for the model, but it’s something I’m used to. The numbers are projecting much higher scores than are, in fact, being scored – and I’ve tweaked it a bit. Hopefully, ATS projections will become more reliable. GLTA
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Playoffs Week 1

    Finally – the Finals! The model had an excellent regular season, but the NBA Finals are always a different story – especially the first two days Round 1. The problem being that too much statistical baggage is carried forward that, no matter how much I massage the numbers, there’s seldom a...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Week 10

    Can’t remember a time when I’ve run the model this late in the season, but the numbers remain solid against the spread (58.2%) and straight-up (68.6%), so I’ve no excuse to shut it down. I think it’s mostly due to teams being bunched up in both conferences where, in the west, they dread playing...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Week 9

    The model’s still on a heater – across the board. Most surprising is its Totals record, and fingers crossed that it keeps it up. Only a few weeks of regular season left, and this is the time when I’m thinking to cash out until the playoffs. Tanking and seeding maneuvers mean more resting...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Week 8

    Last week the model was strong against the spread going 67.3% and had a good week straight-up at 66.1%. Again, TOTALS remains a coinflip, but I’ve used it regularly when other factors like when starters are due for a better game, or when playoff-bound teams adjust rotations to change their...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Week 7

    A poor week ATS for the model which dropped the season record to 56%; SU ticked up a tad; and TOTALS is hanging on by a thread. GLTA
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Week 6

    FYI – I’ve had to shift my closing line sweeps from VSiN back to Vegas Insider. It’s just a matter of compatibility with my program. End of each day I do a manual check with several sites watching for weird line swings, but, aside from my own bookie (who is utterly ignorable), mostly nothing too...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Week 5

    Not much to say about the model’s performance these past 3 days: ATS record dipped a bit, SU moved up a fraction, and TOTALS gained another week’s reprieve. GLTA
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Week 4

    Projecting ATS winners is a snap when teams play to their strengths instead of playing for the long haul of the season (ie. starters playing less minutes or riding the bench). That goes for playoff-bound teams, as well as teams tanking for the lottery. The model’s success the past two weeks is...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Week 3

    Well – either the model is improving, or Vegas line-setters are smoking dope – because dogs are covering at about a 54% rate, and the model – usually a slave to favorites – is starting to ignore past-performance team data, and pitching MOVs a lot lower. Whatever the case, the ATS performance has...
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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Super Bowl LIX

    A pretty bad year for the model, but still sorry the season’s ended. My Raiders also had a pretty bad year, but hope springs eternal. Thank goodness for the NBA. GLTA
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Week 2

    A bad end to another lackluster week for the model, but decent enough straight-up to give it one more week, so I will – but emphasizing to use these projections ONLY as a guide to your own research. Regarding my daily “Best Plays”, my lucky stretch crashed yesterday, but I’m still hanging in...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Week 1

    Okay, kids - I’m more than a month late to start, but until very lately the model’s projections have been too far off to even approximate reliability. I’ve waited to have a decent couple weeks behind a first posting, and it’s now or never. The trouble is easy to spot; teams just don’t play much...
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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Conference Championships

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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Divisional Games

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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Wild Card Week

    I cannot recall a worse ATS year for the model, with a paltry 49%-win rate. SU was a tad better than expected, hitting more than 73%, but it was still a disappointment. The O/U win rate at 56%, on the other hand, came out of nowhere, and I’ll keep it running for the playoffs. Below, I’ve added...
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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 18

    Not sure how to fix it, but the problem is apparent: the model’s margins of victory are not good enough. It can and does predict straight-up winners, but it likes too many losers (dogs), and that doesn’t bring home the bacon. Got a lot of work to do, but that will have to wait for next summer...
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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 17

    Totals going 37-22-2!! Trust me, all I did before I started posting O/Us in Week 13 was to tweak the algorithm a tiny tad, updated the officiating variable, and voilà – what was old is new again. I keep waiting for the balloon to pop, but it just keeps going – LOL. As far as the model’s ATS...
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