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  1. Smitty

    Weekend in Kentucky

    Bet him just a few minutes before Post. He was 8-5. Dropped to 6-5. Fuck. Well, a win is a win. I knew I wasn't getting 4-1 on him.
  2. Smitty

    Churchill Downs Plays

    Hey, I have that same bottle! What a coincidence. :)
  3. Smitty

    Weekend in Kentucky

    The 5 scratched. At least that makes my tickets cheaper.
  4. Smitty

    Weekend in Kentucky

    Ok, now how to bet it? This is gonna be an expensive mess. I'll start with a WP on the 15. Just love the upside of this horse. I'll also key the 15 in a boxed exacta with 1,3,10,12,14,17,21. Then, in case the 15 gets caught in traffic, a smaller boxed exacta with 1,3,10,12,14,17,21 (c'mon...
  5. Smitty

    Weekend in Kentucky

    Alright, my thoughts on the horses that I think have a chance to hit the board, and a few others. Renegade(1) - see above. Intrepido(3) - 50-1 is kinda ridiculous for this horse. I love his pattern. It's basically identical to a couple bombs (Mine That Bird, Commanding Curve) in recent years...
  7. Smitty

    Weekend in Kentucky

    Ok, time for the Derby. Long story short, for the first time in 22 years I'm not hosting a party. Still plan to have a few juleps though. A few thoughts on Renegade (#1). First, I don't think the 1 post is nearly as bad as it used to be, since they introduced the new gate. There just hasn't...
  8. Smitty

    Weekend in Kentucky

    Funny you should ask. I'm working on that right now. I'll post that first.
  9. Smitty

    Weekend in Kentucky

    Yup. The 5, 9, 13, 20, and 24 are all out. They've run out of AEs and a tiny field of 19 are scheduled to run. And, last I saw, the weather was perfect for a horse race. High 50's (I didn't say it was perfect for the spectators). I saw notes on the first two scratches a few days ago, but...
  10. Smitty

    Gas Prices Continue to Rise

    Um, Jack? That's not a car.
  11. Smitty

    Bases Fri 5/1

    Nicely done! Are you counting Boston twice?
  13. Smitty

    Weekend in Kentucky

    11th Race, Turf Classic Nothing too great here. I like the 6 Rhetorical, at 5-2. Gonna use him in some tris. 6/5,7/1,2,5,7,10 The value here is not using the #9, who is the 2nd choice at 7-2.
  14. Smitty

    Weekend in Kentucky

    Moving on to Saturday. 9th race, American Turf The 4, Stark Contrast, is the most likely winner. ML is 4-1, and will probably drop. I'll bet him to Win all the way down to even money. I'm going to play some tris. 4/5 (first time turf, his dam and all 3 of her offspring who have raced ran...
  15. Smitty

    Weekend in Kentucky

    Well, the 2 just made a right turn out of the gate which made things very easy for the 1. Just before post, I was about to put in a WP bet on the 9, but every time I do that, I regret it.
  16. Smitty

    Weekend in Kentucky

    For shits and giggles, I'm also playing this in the Oaks/Derby Double. 2,4,9,10,15 with 1,10,15,18
  17. Smitty

    Weekend in Kentucky

    That is bad news for both of us. :) Well, shit, it's NEVER good when other people are hyping up a 30-1 shot. Poor girl is destined for last place now. Fuck, I hate not getting the value on some of these that I thought I would. Really don't like 4-1 on Always a Runner. Alrighty, at some point...
  19. Smitty

    Weekend in Kentucky

    Holy shit, my 3 "mostly underneath" runners have all taken some action. Always a Runner is down to 4-1. Prom Queen is 5-1. And Lovely Grey... *double checks*... is down to 9-1. Holy shit. On one hand, I don't like her as much at that price, but that tells me she's really live.
  20. Smitty

    Dear MAGA

    Remember when you used to make a big deal about the National Debt? Wasn't that long ago, was it? Now, thanks to your "great businessman", our National Debt is greater than the entire economy (nominal GDP). We're spending $1T (that's TRILLION) this year just on interest on the debt. Good...
  21. Smitty

    Gas Prices Continue to Rise

    Yup, who can forget when Joe Biden led the Russian forces into Ukraine, driving up worldwide energy prices?
  22. Smitty

    Weekend in Kentucky

    Only gonna handicap a few races this weekend, but figured I'd share some thoughts. Just finished working on the Oaks. For starters, I'm betting against Meaning (5-1) and Percy's Bar (6-1). Meaning has been flattered by some good trips against weaker fields and the one time she beat Explora...
  23. Smitty

    Consumer Sentiment Reaches All Time Low

    Close. It's what this administration is getting out of us.
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