Search results

  1. W

    The Limper NBA 2025-26 – Week 11

    Reliability is the target of these postings, and as the regular season winds down – and for various reasons - the basis for the numbers the model uses (ie. past-performance data) becomes always more than ever useless. The model’s projections, therefore, become less and less reliable, and...
  2. W

    The Limper NBA 2025-26 – Week 10

    At the start of every season, I set result-targets for the model as standards of reliability: ATS record – 55%, SU record – 66%, Totals record – 55%, and Actual Point Variance From Projected Points (APVFPP?) - .9. Now, excepting APVFPP (a calculation that I wrote so long ago I’ve forgotten most...
  3. W

    The Limper NBA 2025-26 – Week 9

    Not all the problems the model has is down to late line-up changes, but it’s happening more and more often as the season winds down – enough to hammer the posted projections into useless and unreliable numbers. So, I’ve decided to try posting later in the day – when line-up changes are more...
  4. W

    The Limper NBA 2025-26 – Week 8

    Another short week ahead for the model, which is performing as expected (KOW). Despite Adam Silver’s slap-on-the-wrist tactics, tanking is already in high gear, both for earning high draft picks as well as playoff seeding. In addition to trading away assets at the recently passed deadline – a...
  5. W

    The Limper NBA 2025-26 – Week 7

    A good week for the model ATS and SU, but Totals stunk it up. This week will be a short one thanks to the All Star break. GLTA
  7. W

    The Limper NBA 2025-26 – Week 6

    The model had a semi-good week: numbers for ATS and SU MOV improved, and TOTALS are currently over-the-top, plus – most importantly – I made money TYVM. That said, I’ve heard some questions, which I’ll address below: Given the fact that last minute line-up changes have significant impact on...
  8. W

    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Super Bowl LX

    Can’t help but think that the wrong teams are set to play in the SB. It is what it is, but if not for a couple of bonehead play calls, by two good coaches – and a weird, last minute QB injury – we’d be seeing, perhaps, a much better game. At least we’ll be spared watching through a blizzard...
  9. W

    The Limper NBA 2025-26 – Week 5

    The past week the ATS and SU records declined a tad, but the VGM actually dropped a full point, and TOTALs hit a homerun; so, bottom line, not pulling the plug just yet.
  10. W

    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Conference Finals

    Bummer about Bo Nix; and, as good as they keep saying Stidham is, can’t help feeling like if Pats win it’s empty calories. Got no dog in this hunt, but pulling for Stidham to pull a Nick Foles, just because. Also pulling for Seahawks, mostly because of Darnold. Like to see him and Stidham in the...
  11. W

    The Limper NBA 2025-26 – Week 4

    A piss poor ATS showing by the model, this past week, but despite a W/L drop straight-up, the variable game margins – VGM - showed no significant increase; so, bottom-line, I’ll keep things running – at least another week. Totals also showed a significant W/L decline, but I’ll let it go for the...
  13. W

    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Divisional Games

  14. W

    The Limper NBA 2025-26 – Week 3

    When it works, for ATS record keeping, the model automatically sweeps and averages the closing lines of half-a-dozen Vegas sportsbooks every day. When it doesn’t work – which is often – I need to do it manually, unless I’m out of town as I was last week, in which case it simply isn’t done at...
  15. W

    The Limper NBA 2025-26 – Week 2

    Contrary to my hesitance, the model’s behaving pretty well, picking game-winners and game margins. It’s not doing as well projecting totals winners, but even these margins are not too far off. Hopefully, it will do better as more data is acquired. Regretfully, this will be a short week as I’m...
  16. W

    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Wild Cards

    Should have known better and just skipped Week 18 altogether. The last regular season games are always a data defying nightmare. Lost my butt, along with the model. Dogs covered 9 with 6 upsets. Thank goodness that’s over. This is the first time in a while that the Wild Card games look truly...
  17. W

    The Limper NBA 2025-26 – Week 1

    Against my better judgment, I’m starting earlier than usual. The NBA algorithm I run requires a half season of data in order to produce reliable projections, but my nerdy friends ganged up on me, so – here it goes. Specifically, the problem is that the model uses past performance numbers, of...
  19. W

    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 18

    Hard to believe the regular season ends this week. Over the season, the model didn’t perform as well as I hoped; but, of course, I blame my staff. What with ICE, I just can’t get, and keep, good help these days - so what are you going to do? Only a couple of meaningful games this week, and I’m...
  20. W

    The Limper NBA 2025-26 – Test

  21. W

    The Limper NBA 2025-26 – Test

  22. W

    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 17

    Another semi-solid performance by the model, despite dogs covering 9 games with 6 upsets (the model went 4-2 on the upsets). I know the betting market plays a huge role in Vegas line setting, but these days it’s almost a sure thing to pick a dog (any dog) to back-end cover a double-digit line...
  23. W

    The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 16

    Another dog nightmare for the model, with 9 dogs covering, including 6 straight upsets. FWIW I tweaked algorithm to run a test with full season stats, but it came out the same; so, if past performance numbers suddenly don’t matter, the model’s up a tree without a paddle. I routinely monitor the...
Bet on MyBookie
Top