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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Finals Game 7

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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Playoffs Week 8

    Oklahoma’s coach Daigneault was clearly outcoached in the first game of the series. Starting with a small line-up, instead of his usual starters, this was his attempt to put his personal mark on the team; and this ego-driven “strategy” cost them home-court advantage. If not for the...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Playoffs Week 7

    The model has liked NY from the start of this series, mainly because of its road numbers, and it likes them today by a smidgin – but be wary. A hot 1st quarter start for the Pacers, could spell NY’s doom. This has become a coin-flip series, where the numbers matter next to nothing, and I’ve quit...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Playoffs Week 6

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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Playoffs Week 5

    The model moved a micron better last week, but not so anyone would notice. Really does miserably in the longer series, when teams have time to radically change defenses and rotations. The same algorithm that produced 58% ATS in the regular season struggles in the playoffs, and it will take a...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Playoffs Week 4

    Another poor performance by the model this past week. Based primarily on team and player past performance numbers, the model couldn’t project the radical and strange drop-offs in production we’ve seen from some teams (like Boston), nor the inexplicable production increases in other teams. Poor...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Playoffs Week 3

    A slightly better week for the model – at least the projected scores are a bit closer – but the ATS and SU records remain pathetic. The model did gain a win from a first week re-sweep of closing lines, but, overall, the records stay miserable. Hopefully Round 2 will show a model rebound. GLTA...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Playoffs Week 2

    A dirty week for the model, but it’s something I’m used to. The numbers are projecting much higher scores than are, in fact, being scored – and I’ve tweaked it a bit. Hopefully, ATS projections will become more reliable. GLTA
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Playoffs Week 1

    Finally – the Finals! The model had an excellent regular season, but the NBA Finals are always a different story – especially the first two days Round 1. The problem being that too much statistical baggage is carried forward that, no matter how much I massage the numbers, there’s seldom a...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Week 10

    Can’t remember a time when I’ve run the model this late in the season, but the numbers remain solid against the spread (58.2%) and straight-up (68.6%), so I’ve no excuse to shut it down. I think it’s mostly due to teams being bunched up in both conferences where, in the west, they dread playing...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Week 9

    The model’s still on a heater – across the board. Most surprising is its Totals record, and fingers crossed that it keeps it up. Only a few weeks of regular season left, and this is the time when I’m thinking to cash out until the playoffs. Tanking and seeding maneuvers mean more resting...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Week 8

    Last week the model was strong against the spread going 67.3% and had a good week straight-up at 66.1%. Again, TOTALS remains a coinflip, but I’ve used it regularly when other factors like when starters are due for a better game, or when playoff-bound teams adjust rotations to change their...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Week 7

    A poor week ATS for the model which dropped the season record to 56%; SU ticked up a tad; and TOTALS is hanging on by a thread. GLTA
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Week 6

    FYI – I’ve had to shift my closing line sweeps from VSiN back to Vegas Insider. It’s just a matter of compatibility with my program. End of each day I do a manual check with several sites watching for weird line swings, but, aside from my own bookie (who is utterly ignorable), mostly nothing too...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Week 5

    Not much to say about the model’s performance these past 3 days: ATS record dipped a bit, SU moved up a fraction, and TOTALS gained another week’s reprieve. GLTA
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Week 4

    Projecting ATS winners is a snap when teams play to their strengths instead of playing for the long haul of the season (ie. starters playing less minutes or riding the bench). That goes for playoff-bound teams, as well as teams tanking for the lottery. The model’s success the past two weeks is...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Week 3

    Well – either the model is improving, or Vegas line-setters are smoking dope – because dogs are covering at about a 54% rate, and the model – usually a slave to favorites – is starting to ignore past-performance team data, and pitching MOVs a lot lower. Whatever the case, the ATS performance has...
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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Super Bowl LIX

    A pretty bad year for the model, but still sorry the season’s ended. My Raiders also had a pretty bad year, but hope springs eternal. Thank goodness for the NBA. GLTA
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Week 2

    A bad end to another lackluster week for the model, but decent enough straight-up to give it one more week, so I will – but emphasizing to use these projections ONLY as a guide to your own research. Regarding my daily “Best Plays”, my lucky stretch crashed yesterday, but I’m still hanging in...
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    The Limper NBA 2024-25 – Week 1

    Okay, kids - I’m more than a month late to start, but until very lately the model’s projections have been too far off to even approximate reliability. I’ve waited to have a decent couple weeks behind a first posting, and it’s now or never. The trouble is easy to spot; teams just don’t play much...
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