just realized i posted this in the wrong thread. whoopsie.
Liberty Bowl
I'm gonna get this started, but I gotta head out in 20 minutes to meet a friend for lunch, so I won't get too far.
Cincinnati has most of their offense (except their QB), but they have nobody left in the defensive secondary. From actionnetwork.com...
Normally, missing your defensive secondary against Navy wouldn't be a HUGE deal. You could just throw in some extra linebackers. But Horvath has thrown a lot this year (for a service academy), and he's averaging 10.2 yards/att.
Betting Army & Navy in bowl games is always tricky. For one thing, they already had their Super Bowl. How much do they really care about bowl games? On the other hand, the triple option can be a lot easier to defend when you have 3 weeks to prepare for it. But that all comes down to motivation. If you're not focused during those practices, you're fucked.
Ok, gonna have to stop there. I should be home in plenty of time to wrap this up before the game.
Alrighty, let's pick this back up. Had a delicious Cuban sandwich with some mac & cheese, and now I'm ready for a nap. But no napping on the last day of bowl games!!
So Cincinnati has the whole offense, except the qb. Sorsby certainly put up excellent numbers throwing the ball. And, impressively, he only took 7 sacks on 343 dropbacks. Senior Lichtenberg racked up most of his career yardage in 2023. Jones has the highest passer rating I've ever seen this year... 487.6. OK, he's thrown the ball twice. Whatever. Anyway, Sorsby was also a huge factor with his legs (6.6 yards/att). Both qbs, in their limited playing time, also showed the ability to run the ball. So the big question mark is whether they can throw it. Navy has one of the worst pass defenses in the country, allowing 8.2 yards/att (120th). If either qb has any ability to throw, they might just be ok. It will help that they have one of the most potent ground games in the country, averaging 5.9 yards/carry (3rd). Tawee Walker (hey, I don't name them) racked up 5.9 yards/carry and his backup, Pryor, averaged 6.9 and had at least one run of 10+ yards every game he played except the finale, when he only had 3 carries. Navy is in the middle of the pack defensively, allowing 4.1 yards/carry.
We all know what Navy does offensively. I'm not going to rehash it here. They are throwing more than we're used to. Cincinnati has not been good against the run (4.3 yards/carry) or the pass (7.4 yards/att), and now they're missing a bunch of guys on defense.
Cincinnati has finished the season very poorly two years in a row now. Last year, they started 5-2, then lost their last 5 to miss a bowl game. This year, they started 7-1 and climbed to #21 in the polls. They then lost their last 4 games. It's really hard to say where their heads are at. Cincinnati hasn't won a bowl game since 2019. Maybe they'll be excited after missing a bowl game last year. Maybe all those backups on defense are excited for this opportunity, and they're ready to slow down the option.
I think Cincinnati is going to be ok offensively. And it's hard to imagine they're going to keep Navy out of the end zone all that much. So the over is the logical play, and I see the line has gone up 2 points since last night. We've also seen 90% of the bowl teams struggle offensively early after the layoff. That will impact the option as much as any offense, if not more, because it relies so much on precise timing. They struggled to get started against Oklahoma in their bowl game last year, with no drives over 6 plays in the first half. But, again, the HUGE question is Cincinnati's defense.
Don't love it, but I'm gonna take a shot on the Bearcats to keep it close early. And instead of playing the game over (you can see just how well I've done on totals in the bowl games), I'm going to play both teams over their TT at adjusted numbers, so I only need to hit one to make a (small) profit. Also found an interesting 1Q prop that is worth a shot at -120.
Cincinnati 1H (+4.5) 2.3 to win 2
Cincinnati TT Over (26.5) 4 to win 4.4
Navy TT Over (34.5) 4 to win 4.2
1Q Both teams to score 3+ points 2.4 to win 2
