I am doing something different this year. I am going to concentrate solely on away favorites. For one, it will cut the number of plays. Secondly, I believe I will be able to focus clearly on my objecitives. Of course, that all remains to be seen.
I found 3 plays to consider - California, Texas Tech, and Virginia. I would say that almost everything points to California, while there are some questions surrounding the Texas Tech and Virginia sides. TT plays SMU and a worse team is hard to find. SMU went winless last year and TT was 8-5. In fact, these two teams opened the season last year at TT where the Red Raiders blasted SMU 58-10. The same thing could well happen again. But there are some signs that indicate possible improvement on the part of SMU. I don't know if you really want 19 starters of the 24 returning from an 0-12 year, but it cannot be discounted. The point spread of approximately 24 is the biggest problem. TT us a prolific scoring team, having put up numbers like 58, 42, 49, 59,52, 49, 31, and 40. Defensively there were few gems and they had games giving up 28, 49, 45, 51, 62, 43, and 56. I don't want to lay 24 points against a defense that porous. Could they win by more than 24? Absolutely, they could easily win by 50. But I don't feel it is a strong play.
California seems to have almost everything going its way. They are returning 16 players from last year's 8-6 team that upset Virginia Tech in the Insight Bowl. They won 5 of their last 6. Much of their powerful offense is returning. Tedford is going into his 3rd year with a complicated offense that may be tough for a team to stop early in the season. His QB returns with other offensive players that saw plenty of action. They will know the offense. Air force is seldom an easy game, but this year looks like it may be a down year. They only return 6 starters (3/3) and 29 letterman from last years 7-5 team. They lost 4 of their last 5 and 5 of their last 7. We have 2 teams going in opposite directions. They will need to break in a new QB, but AF is all about the system and that shouldn't make a big difference. They beat California in 2003,23-21, which may serve as revenge for Cal. I think California romps.
I took a look at Virginia, but couldn't pull the trigger on the Cavs even against the pitiful Owls of Temple. Virginia is returning 16 starters from last year's 8-5 team that beat Pitt in the Continental Tire Bowl. They are not particularly strong against the spread on the road. The Owls are returning their QB, but again, they were 1-11 last year. Despite going 1-11 straight up, the Owls were a money maker at 7-5 against the spread. They were 2-2 at home. Virginia looks like a strong play, but 16 points makes a back door cover look like a possibility. The other thing that scares me about Temple is a list of who they played last year - even though they went 1-11, here is who they played in part
enn St, Cinn, Louisville, Boston Coll, Miami,Syracuse, Va Tech, Pitt, and West Virginia.
So, one play, California -13.5 for 5 units.
I found 3 plays to consider - California, Texas Tech, and Virginia. I would say that almost everything points to California, while there are some questions surrounding the Texas Tech and Virginia sides. TT plays SMU and a worse team is hard to find. SMU went winless last year and TT was 8-5. In fact, these two teams opened the season last year at TT where the Red Raiders blasted SMU 58-10. The same thing could well happen again. But there are some signs that indicate possible improvement on the part of SMU. I don't know if you really want 19 starters of the 24 returning from an 0-12 year, but it cannot be discounted. The point spread of approximately 24 is the biggest problem. TT us a prolific scoring team, having put up numbers like 58, 42, 49, 59,52, 49, 31, and 40. Defensively there were few gems and they had games giving up 28, 49, 45, 51, 62, 43, and 56. I don't want to lay 24 points against a defense that porous. Could they win by more than 24? Absolutely, they could easily win by 50. But I don't feel it is a strong play.
California seems to have almost everything going its way. They are returning 16 players from last year's 8-6 team that upset Virginia Tech in the Insight Bowl. They won 5 of their last 6. Much of their powerful offense is returning. Tedford is going into his 3rd year with a complicated offense that may be tough for a team to stop early in the season. His QB returns with other offensive players that saw plenty of action. They will know the offense. Air force is seldom an easy game, but this year looks like it may be a down year. They only return 6 starters (3/3) and 29 letterman from last years 7-5 team. They lost 4 of their last 5 and 5 of their last 7. We have 2 teams going in opposite directions. They will need to break in a new QB, but AF is all about the system and that shouldn't make a big difference. They beat California in 2003,23-21, which may serve as revenge for Cal. I think California romps.
I took a look at Virginia, but couldn't pull the trigger on the Cavs even against the pitiful Owls of Temple. Virginia is returning 16 starters from last year's 8-5 team that beat Pitt in the Continental Tire Bowl. They are not particularly strong against the spread on the road. The Owls are returning their QB, but again, they were 1-11 last year. Despite going 1-11 straight up, the Owls were a money maker at 7-5 against the spread. They were 2-2 at home. Virginia looks like a strong play, but 16 points makes a back door cover look like a possibility. The other thing that scares me about Temple is a list of who they played last year - even though they went 1-11, here is who they played in part
enn St, Cinn, Louisville, Boston Coll, Miami,Syracuse, Va Tech, Pitt, and West Virginia. So, one play, California -13.5 for 5 units.
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