10/16 - 10/18

[dawgball]

LW 4-3 (+0.7 units)
YTD 17-16 (-0.6 units)
UGA 5-1 (+3.9 units)

Recap:
I had two plays that were against one of my main philosophies and both lost (Ohio St., LSU). Minnesota was a tough beat, and I would play them again given the opportunity. The other games were pretty easy wins, so I will be happy with the positive week.

Georgia this week faces the cream of the crop in the SEC with Vanderbilt. Too bad for the Commodores, this isn't the Academic Bowl. The early line that I saw at Infintiy was UGA -28. At this point, I am leaning to the battling black and gold of Nashville to squeek out a back door cover. Georgia's only loss ATS this year was against their worst opponent, Middle Tennessee State. Once again, I see this as a good opportunity (and next week versus UAB) for Richt to try out some key back-ups before we get back to the regular scheduled program when we face Florida and Auburn back to back.

Not a play, yet, but I am leaning to Vandy +28. I would like to see this go over the 4 TD mark, then it will almost definitely be a play.

Be back with more plays later. Hope everyone had a great weekend!

 

[dawgball]

Correction: I'm not sure why I have +28 in the previous post. Did I just read it incorrectly or has that line moved 4 points since yesterday? BestBettor is not showing a line movement at Infinity.

I believe the most interesting match-up this week in the SEC is Auburn and Arkansas. Auburn has been an interesting team this year for obvious reasons, and we had a nice opportunity to make coin fading them early in the season. Tubberville, surprisingly, has been able to turn this club around and actually looks now to be the cream of the SEC West. The question here is :How much line value are we getting with Arkansas because the press on Auburn is that they are now playing where they should have been all season? My initial lean is to take the points with the overmatched Hogs based on this fact. I am going to keep a close eye on this game and the press on both sides (including people's opinion here) to see if we can call the hogs in. I know that I will not place anything on Auburn this week. They have looked too good the past two weeks, so I don't think there is value in playing them.

Be back with more leans later.

Good luck!

 

[dawgball]

Okay. Not sure where I am when I am typing this week, but that should be Mississippi State instead of Arkansas in the above post. I think I will take a break from the coffee!:withstupi

 

[ND2002HORNS]

GL this weekend 'Dawg!

HORNS

 

[dawgball]

Thanks, ND. always can count on you for some support!

I think this may be my last lean for the week because I like three dogs within the SEC. I believe Florida is going to start showing people what they are made of. They have plenty of talent on the field and if the coaches allow them to play wide open, I believe they will start making some noise. I am going to continue to look at these three games, but I don't foresee playing any others barring coat-tails!

 

[ajoytoy]

BOL Dawg!


toy

 

[hellah10]

good luck

 

[dawgball]

Georgia Injury report:

Out: Starting nose guard Kedric Golston, and back-up QB DJ Shockley.

Very Doubtful: WR Fred Gibson

Doubtful: All-American David Pollack

Pollack wants to play if his toe heals, but if he does it will be very limited action.

I think the injury-ridden Bulldogs will be resting these next two weeks, so I am still leaning towards taking the Commodores.

I will update as I hear more.

 

[dawgball]

Played:

Vanderbilt +25 (-105)
Florida +4' (-110)
Mississippi St. +12 (-105)

Maybe more later but probably not. Going out of town for the weekend.

Good luck everyone!

 

[dawgball]

Once again, I made another typo.

That should be:
Mississippi St +21 (-105)