10/18 - a # on each game

[#cruncher]

Done things a little different this week. Added a formula to give more balance (add a few more favs and take away a few more dogs). First thing listed is my # on all games and then my selections are listed after that...based on those numbers only.

Virginia Tech -10.5 at Maryland
Troy -8.5 vs Florida Intl
So Mississippi -3.0 at UAB
Pittsburgh -15.0 vs Syracuse
Michigan St -14.0 vs Northwestern
Michigan -3.0 at Iowa
Ohio St -16.0 at Indiana
Florida St -30.5 at Duke
Wake Forest -1.5 vs N C State
N Carolina -3.5 vs Virginia
Vanderbilt -1/2 at S Carolina
Oklahoma -14.0 vs Baylor
Georgia -19.5 vs Arkansas
Missouri -1.0 vs Nebraska
No Illinois -20.5 at Kent
Clemson -34.5 vs Temple
Ohio -12.0 vs Ball St
Memphis -15.5 vs E Carolina
Houston -6.0 at Mississippi St
Notre Dame -21.0 vs BYU
Tulsa -17.5 vs SMU
TCU -3.5 at Air Force
Alabama -7.0 vs Tennessee
Washington St -6.5 at California
UConn -2.5 vs Rutgers
Wisconsin -8.0 vs Purdue
Texas A&M -11.0 at Kansas St
Iowa St -22.0 vs Oklahoma St
Miami -9.5 vs Georgia Tech
Colorado -15.0 vs Kansas
Bowling Green -15.5 vs W Michigan
UCLA -1.0 vs Oregon St
Fresno St -25.5 at Idaho
Miami Ohio -18.0 at E Michigan
Hawaii -7.5 at San Jose St
C Florida -12.5 vs Tulane
Akron -8.0 vs Army
Texas -14.5 vs Texas Tech
Mississippi -12.0 vs Kentucky
Louisville -13.5 at Cincinnati
Penn St -27.5 at Illinois
S Florida -2.5 vs W Virginia
Utah -7.5 at UNLV
Colorado St -4.5 vs Wyoming
Toledo by 35.0 vs Buffalo
Oregon by 26.5 at Arizona
LSU by 8.5 vs Auburn
UTEP by 10.5 vs Marshall
New Mexico by 1/2 at San Diego St
Arizona St by 25.0 at Stanford
So Cal by 36.0 at Washington
Boise St by 22.5 at Utah St
Louisiana Tech by 27.5 vs North Texas
M Tennessee by 9.5 vs ULL
Arkansas St by 13.5 vs Florida Atl
Navy by 5.5 at Rice

Selections
--------------
Vanderbilt +8.0 at S Carolina
No Illinois -10.0 at Kent
Memphis -7.5 vs E Carolina
Houston +1.5 at Mississippi St
Washington St +11.5 at California
Texas A&M -3.5 at Kansas St
Oregon St +9.5 at UCLA
Miami Ohio -11.0 at E Michigan
C Florida -5.0 vs Tulane
Oregon -9.5 at Arizona
Arizona St -9.5 at Stanford
Arkansas St -8.0 vs Florida Atl

Others
---------
Iowa St -15.0 vs Oklahoma St
Georgia Tech +16.0 at Miami
W Michigan +25.5 at Bowling Green
Cincinnati +22.5 vs Louisville
Penn St -16.5 at Illinois
Louisiana Tech -18.5 vs North Texas

fwiw?

 

[JOSHNAUDI]

thanks for posting all the numbers you ran.

takes the curiosity out of how you got your name on here. lol.

goodluck this weekend

 

[#cruncher]

Thanks...Same to ya!

 

[ysg3]

just out of interest what sorts of things do you use to get the #'s, and how have they been this year. Are the hitting/helping. What do you do with the #''s once you calculate them? how are you using them to make money? thanks

 

[#cruncher]

The last few(3) weeks they (#'s) have gone 38-28 overall. So ya might ask why change since I am in the black, and I could regret it! But things just didn't look or feel right. Last week was my first losing week as I went 10-13...and that was about what I expected (although I was at least hoping to break even). I was/have been using just one formula/method to arrive at a number but I felt a need to balance things out some because it was starting to give me way to many plays on dogs. So this week I added another formula to cover the 'back door' sort of speak and I just average the two. I don't want to get to specific at how I arrive at a number because we all have to hold back a little. But I don't just look at the final scores/margin of victory to arrive at a number because that can be very misleading at times. So I come up with a number from stats only (less margin of victory) and then from margin of victory being the prime consideration in the other formula. To give an example of how different they can be...take the first game for instance. I came up with Va Tech -10.5 but that came from an average of 20 and 1; one of the formulas had Tech by 20 and the other Tech by 1.

The way I get my selections...am using a minimum of a 6 point difference between my number and the opening line for me to have a play. I was using just a 4 point difference the last three weeks, and I may regret that also. So I think by adding that other formula and by increasing my minimum from 4 to 6 is the main reason the number of my selections have gone down considerably. Hope this helps.