10. Let?s relax a bit on that killer schedule
Yeah, yeah, Florida?s schedule was the best in the country (and I?ve been front and center on that parade), but it?s not like Ohio State wouldn?t have had, at worst, similar success with the same slate. Fine, so the cumulative effect of a tough schedule means teams can wear down late, and there are more chances throughout the long season to come out flat at some point and lose to a good team. Even so, Ohio State would?ve beaten Southern Miss, UCF, Kentucky, Alabama, at Vanderbilt, and Western Carolina with ease. Give the Buckeyes the home wins over LSU and South Carolina, a road game at Florida State, and a neutral site win over Georgia. At Tennessee, at Auburn and a neutral site date against Arkansas would join the LSU game as the real danger spots, but the Buckeyes wouldn?t lose more than one of those four and would be right where the Gators are.
9. Get pressure on Chris Leak and it?s over
For all of Leak?s experience and savvy, he?s not always cool under fire when he?s getting popped. The Gator offensive line isn?t anything special, and the Buckeyes can generate a pass rush from several different areas including up the middle from tackle Quinn Pitcock and from the linebacking corps This isn?t necessarily the humming-on-all-cylinders Florida passing game you might think it is with Leak throwing just eight touchdown passes with nine interceptions over the final eight games of the year. In other words ?
8. This isn?t the fun ?n? gun
This is more dink ?n? dunk. Yes, there?s plenty of speed, talent and defensive athleticism in the SEC and Florida still found a way to win, but if you?re waiting for the Gator attack to explode for 35 points without getting scores from the defense, special teams, and a Percy Harvin play or three, you?ll be waiting a long time. No one?s thrown for more than 267 yards all year on the Ohio State defense, which is an issue since ?
7. Tim Tebow is Florida?s most effective runner
Gator RB DeShawn Wynn will be as healthy as he?s been all season long, Kestahn Moore will get a few carries, and Harvin will get the ball in his hands several times in several ways, but as long as backup QB Tim Tebow is stopped on the short yardage plays and doesn?t come up with a momentum-changing run, Florida might be in big trouble. The Buckeyes are physical on the defensive front and Florida's ground game simply isn't good enough to take over if Leak and the passing attack aren't rocking and rolling.
6. Florida can?t outathletic the Buckeyes
Even by SEC standards, Florida is athletic with only LSU having equal all-around team speed (at least in the way it played week in and week out). Ohio State is just as fast. The Buckeye defensive back seven can move, the offensive skill guys can all fly, and Troy Smith is mobile enough to slide around and buy himself time to make plays, which will be a plus since ?
5. The Gator pass rush has been a disappointment
Even though Jarvis Moss isn?t Jevon Kearse, he?s a physical presence who?ll make a lot of money very soon at the next level. The same goes for Derrick Harvey. While this is a quick, lean defensive front that has the ability to generate pressure, it hasn?t happened as much as it should?ve. Smith is a smart enough decision maker to make plays even if the front seven gets into the backfield, the ball might be gone. The Florida defense might get to Smith, but it's not likely to hit him on a regular basis. As long as Smith doesn?t try to do too much and doesn't force his passes, the Buckeye offense should be fine.
4. Ohio State in Arizona
Jim Tressel ought to retire in the A.Z. Ohio State has made the greater Phoenix metropolitan area its home over the last few years beating Notre Dame in the 2006 Fiesta Bowl, Kansas State in the 2004 Fiesta Bowl, and Miami, for the national title, in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl. Don?t dismiss this; if a coaching staff, and everyone around the program, are comfortable and believe there?s something special about a place, even if it?s all just superstition, it matters. To take this even further for you historical nuts, Ohio State won the 1984 Fiesta Bowl over Pitt, but lost the 1980 Fiesta Bowl to Penn State. On the flip side, the last time we saw Florida in Arizona was in early 1996 when Tommie Frazier, Lawrence Phillips and Nebraska ran over the Gators for a 62-24 national title win.
3. Ohio State doesn?t screw up
It?s not like Florida turns the ball over all that often, but Ohio State almost never makes mistakes finishing ninth in the nation in turnover margin, averaging a mere 4.75 penalties for 42.83 yards per game, and is fourth in the country on third downs converting 51.3% of its chances. Meanwhile, Florida converts 43% of its third down tries and is 118th in the nation in penalties committing 8.46 per game for 64.46 yards.
2. Field goal kicking
Uh oh. Let?s say Florida keeps this sucker close; can it rely on the kicking game? Senior Chris Hetland was sensational in 2005 hitting 13 of 16 shots, but he?s four of 13 on field goals this year, and oddly enough, 38 for 40 on extra points for the second straight season. While Ohio State sophomore Aaron Pettrey might not make anyone forget about Mike Nugent, he made eight of 11 field goals with his last miss coming in mid-September. (To be fair, he hasn?t been under any real pressure and hasn?t attempted a field goal since November 4th.)
1. Ohio State is number one for a reason
To start off with a fun stat, if you?re a trends believer, a one-loss team has never beaten an undefeated team for the BCS championship. the Buckeyes were a pillar-to-post number one with a balanced offense that was able throw when Texas shut down the ground game, and ran to support the passing attack throughout the second half of the season. They've played in pressure packed games against Texas, Penn State, Iowa and Michigan, and came out with wins. Troy Smith is a proven, big-game winner, while the defense was better all season long than it got credit for since all the attention was on the dynamic offense. And then there?s Jim Tressel. The Buckeye head man is 62-13 in his six years with a 5-1 record against Michigan while winning his last four bowl games after the stunning 31-28 defeat to South Carolina in the 2002 Outback Bowl. No, the 2006 Buckeyes aren?t 2005 Texas, 2005 USC, or 2004 USC, but it?s a solid team that should win the national title as long as it doesn?t screw up big-time.
Yeah, yeah, Florida?s schedule was the best in the country (and I?ve been front and center on that parade), but it?s not like Ohio State wouldn?t have had, at worst, similar success with the same slate. Fine, so the cumulative effect of a tough schedule means teams can wear down late, and there are more chances throughout the long season to come out flat at some point and lose to a good team. Even so, Ohio State would?ve beaten Southern Miss, UCF, Kentucky, Alabama, at Vanderbilt, and Western Carolina with ease. Give the Buckeyes the home wins over LSU and South Carolina, a road game at Florida State, and a neutral site win over Georgia. At Tennessee, at Auburn and a neutral site date against Arkansas would join the LSU game as the real danger spots, but the Buckeyes wouldn?t lose more than one of those four and would be right where the Gators are.
9. Get pressure on Chris Leak and it?s over
For all of Leak?s experience and savvy, he?s not always cool under fire when he?s getting popped. The Gator offensive line isn?t anything special, and the Buckeyes can generate a pass rush from several different areas including up the middle from tackle Quinn Pitcock and from the linebacking corps This isn?t necessarily the humming-on-all-cylinders Florida passing game you might think it is with Leak throwing just eight touchdown passes with nine interceptions over the final eight games of the year. In other words ?
8. This isn?t the fun ?n? gun
This is more dink ?n? dunk. Yes, there?s plenty of speed, talent and defensive athleticism in the SEC and Florida still found a way to win, but if you?re waiting for the Gator attack to explode for 35 points without getting scores from the defense, special teams, and a Percy Harvin play or three, you?ll be waiting a long time. No one?s thrown for more than 267 yards all year on the Ohio State defense, which is an issue since ?
7. Tim Tebow is Florida?s most effective runner
Gator RB DeShawn Wynn will be as healthy as he?s been all season long, Kestahn Moore will get a few carries, and Harvin will get the ball in his hands several times in several ways, but as long as backup QB Tim Tebow is stopped on the short yardage plays and doesn?t come up with a momentum-changing run, Florida might be in big trouble. The Buckeyes are physical on the defensive front and Florida's ground game simply isn't good enough to take over if Leak and the passing attack aren't rocking and rolling.
6. Florida can?t outathletic the Buckeyes
Even by SEC standards, Florida is athletic with only LSU having equal all-around team speed (at least in the way it played week in and week out). Ohio State is just as fast. The Buckeye defensive back seven can move, the offensive skill guys can all fly, and Troy Smith is mobile enough to slide around and buy himself time to make plays, which will be a plus since ?
5. The Gator pass rush has been a disappointment
Even though Jarvis Moss isn?t Jevon Kearse, he?s a physical presence who?ll make a lot of money very soon at the next level. The same goes for Derrick Harvey. While this is a quick, lean defensive front that has the ability to generate pressure, it hasn?t happened as much as it should?ve. Smith is a smart enough decision maker to make plays even if the front seven gets into the backfield, the ball might be gone. The Florida defense might get to Smith, but it's not likely to hit him on a regular basis. As long as Smith doesn?t try to do too much and doesn't force his passes, the Buckeye offense should be fine.
4. Ohio State in Arizona
Jim Tressel ought to retire in the A.Z. Ohio State has made the greater Phoenix metropolitan area its home over the last few years beating Notre Dame in the 2006 Fiesta Bowl, Kansas State in the 2004 Fiesta Bowl, and Miami, for the national title, in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl. Don?t dismiss this; if a coaching staff, and everyone around the program, are comfortable and believe there?s something special about a place, even if it?s all just superstition, it matters. To take this even further for you historical nuts, Ohio State won the 1984 Fiesta Bowl over Pitt, but lost the 1980 Fiesta Bowl to Penn State. On the flip side, the last time we saw Florida in Arizona was in early 1996 when Tommie Frazier, Lawrence Phillips and Nebraska ran over the Gators for a 62-24 national title win.
3. Ohio State doesn?t screw up
It?s not like Florida turns the ball over all that often, but Ohio State almost never makes mistakes finishing ninth in the nation in turnover margin, averaging a mere 4.75 penalties for 42.83 yards per game, and is fourth in the country on third downs converting 51.3% of its chances. Meanwhile, Florida converts 43% of its third down tries and is 118th in the nation in penalties committing 8.46 per game for 64.46 yards.
2. Field goal kicking
Uh oh. Let?s say Florida keeps this sucker close; can it rely on the kicking game? Senior Chris Hetland was sensational in 2005 hitting 13 of 16 shots, but he?s four of 13 on field goals this year, and oddly enough, 38 for 40 on extra points for the second straight season. While Ohio State sophomore Aaron Pettrey might not make anyone forget about Mike Nugent, he made eight of 11 field goals with his last miss coming in mid-September. (To be fair, he hasn?t been under any real pressure and hasn?t attempted a field goal since November 4th.)
1. Ohio State is number one for a reason
To start off with a fun stat, if you?re a trends believer, a one-loss team has never beaten an undefeated team for the BCS championship. the Buckeyes were a pillar-to-post number one with a balanced offense that was able throw when Texas shut down the ground game, and ran to support the passing attack throughout the second half of the season. They've played in pressure packed games against Texas, Penn State, Iowa and Michigan, and came out with wins. Troy Smith is a proven, big-game winner, while the defense was better all season long than it got credit for since all the attention was on the dynamic offense. And then there?s Jim Tressel. The Buckeye head man is 62-13 in his six years with a 5-1 record against Michigan while winning his last four bowl games after the stunning 31-28 defeat to South Carolina in the 2002 Outback Bowl. No, the 2006 Buckeyes aren?t 2005 Texas, 2005 USC, or 2004 USC, but it?s a solid team that should win the national title as long as it doesn?t screw up big-time.
